Russia Invades Ukraine, part XI

Padreruf

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But, on the other hand, you get the satisfaction of knowing your product was produced by slave labor.

If I were planetary commander, I'd put a 1,000,000% tariff on imports from countries that are stupid enough to still call themselves communist, and who have concentration camps for religious minorities, and suppress free speech.
I am not sure if any countries fit that bill, but trade with them is immoral and should be effectively banned.
This is the old dilemma of how to push radical change in a totalitarian country...iron fist or velvet glove? Beginning with Nixon and of course, Kissinger's leadership, we opened up to China thinking we could lead them to change for economic reasons. This hasn't worked on a massive scale...but there have been some changes -- primarily in that with limited capitalism the "communist" leaders have become wealthy...

The Hong Kong situation ought to have convinced us that China is not changing...they are on their determined path of state control and nothing will deter that. They are convinced that this is the best way to "rule' a country so huge. How many generations now have been indoctrinated in this ideology?

Democracy is messy and cumbersome...but it is so preferable to anything else, short of Tidewater or myself being made a benevolent dictator...and I con't take the job as it would interfere with my afternoon nap.
 

CrimsonJazz

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Ukraine on Friday banned the activities of religious organizations “affiliated with centers of influence” in Russia and said it would examine the links between the Ukrainian and Russian Orthodox churches.
Orthodox Christians are the largest religious population in Ukraine. But they have been fractured along lines that echo political tensions over Ukraine’s defense of its independence and its Western orientation amid Russia’s continued claim to political and spiritual hegemony in the region — a concept sometimes called the “Russian world.”
 

Tidewater

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The Ukrainian Orthodox Church gained autocephaly recently. It used to be part of the Russian Orthodox Church. This was the decision of the Patriarch of Constantinople. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church became independent and a lot of the ROC-Moscow Patriarchate (ROC-MP) churches remained loyal to Moscow.
The UOC contains more parishioners, but ROC contains churches. In other words, ROC has a lot of churches but they tend to be empty.
 
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CrimsonJazz

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The Ukrainian Orthodox Church gained autocephaly recently. It used to be part of the Russian Orthodox Church. This was the decision of the Patriarch of Constantinople. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church became independent and a lot of the ROC-Moscow Patriarchate (ROC-MP) churches remained loyal to Moscow.
The UOC contains more parishioners, but ROC contains churches. In other words, ROC has a lot of churches but they tend to be empty.
Oof. What are your thoughts on a possible reconciliation after the current conflict blows over? I don't know much about Orthodoxy, but my interest is growing (not on the possibility of joining, but on following the effect on society this could have.)
 

Tidewater

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Oof. What are your thoughts on a possible reconciliation after the current conflict blows over? I don't know much about Orthodoxy, but my interest is growing (not on the possibility of joining, but on following the effect on society this could have.)
Given the brutality with which the Russians have dealt with their Ukrainian "brethren," not likely.

Maybe in a couple hundred years when passions have cooled a little.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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Given the brutality with which the Russians have dealt with their Ukrainian "brethren," not likely.

Maybe in a couple hundred years when passions have cooled a little.
I read a short article a couple of days ago, by a Ukrainian, saying basically that the struggle for independence from Moscow was a least three hundred years old. That it was the Muscovites who decided on their own that they were the inheritors of the original ancient Rus of Kyiv, self-nominated, IOW, not appointed or acknowledged by the Ukrainians. My first impulse was that it was a bit more complex than that. There were the matters of the Lithuanians and Poles, for example, but he definitely believed it and his core assertion was correct...
 
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Bamaro

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4Q Basket Case

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Some differences, but a lot of similarities with Hitler — Sick, drugged-up, takes forever to prepare for even the shortest public appearance, not clear how much information (whether whitewashed or not) sinks in, delusional pronouncements both public and private.

If half of this is true, Putin isn’t long for this world. How much damage he can do between now and his final exit — whether natural or “assisted” — is the question.
 

crimsonaudio

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Blasts deep inside Russia hand Putin a fresh problem, with no obvious answer

Moscow’s accusation that Ukrainian drones struck two airbases deep inside Russia has once again raised the febrile question of escalation nine months into the war.

The strikes are an extraordinary breach of Russia’s assumptions that it can protect its deep interior, from which safe harbors its strategic bombers have caused carnage across Ukraine with relative impunity.

These are airbases very far inside Russia, and whatever the truth of the strikes – whether they represent a new long-distance drone capability Ukraine has advertised, or there’s another explanation – this is just not something that was meant to happen when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his “10-day invasion” in February. Week by week, there are yet more signs that Moscow’s military machine cannot do what it says on its can.
 

4Q Basket Case

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While his predictions aren’t perfect, Peter Zeihan knows what he’s talking about, and he’s about as spot-on as a human can be.

Zeihan estimates that we will know who will win the Russo-Ukrainian war by May. Note that he didn’t say the war would by over by then…..only that the eventual winner would be apparent.

My personal feeling is that Zeihan gives short shrift to the damage Putin can do on his way out. Putin might be on his way out of office (after which he’ll probably be killed), or he might be sick and die in office, or he might be assassinated.

Regardless of his method of exit, he can do a lot of damage between now and then.

The next six months will be interesting.
 

TIDE-HSV

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While his predictions aren’t perfect, Peter Zeihan knows what he’s talking about, and he’s about as spot-on as a human can be.

Zeihan estimates that we will know who will win the Russo-Ukrainian war by May. Note that he didn’t say the war would by over by then…..only that the eventual winner would be apparent.

My personal feeling is that Zeihan gives short shrift to the damage Putin can do on his way out. Putin might be on his way out of office (after which he’ll probably be killed), or he might be sick and die in office, or he might be assassinated.

Regardless of his method of exit, he can do a lot of damage between now and then.

The next six months will be interesting.
He's already done a lot of damage to the entire world order. One thing I can't understand is why we don't supply them with armor. In the beginning, it made some sense in not being escalatory and forcing Putin to call our raise. That no longer make any sense. I can't think of anything more Putin can do to Ukraine, other than nuke it. I understand the Patriot problem. There aren't that many of them. Those in process are already sold to other countries and they cost 3-5 million per missile. OTOH, there are 26K armored vehicles parked in neat rows in Northern CA, including 2K Abrams M1s. I know they would have to be updated, etc., but the Ukrainians certainly could use them...

 

crimsonaudio

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OTOH, there are 26K armored vehicles parked in neat rows in Northern CA, including 2K Abrams M1s. I know they would have to be updated, etc., but the Ukrainians certainly could use them...
From what I've been told the Russkies have got nothing that can really compete head-to-head with the M1.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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From what I've been told the Russkies have got nothing that can really compete head-to-head with the M1.
Particularly since they appear to have used up all their T-80s and T-72s and were well into their their fifty-year old T-62s, those that weren't missing too many parts. I'm not sure any of their T-14 Armata super tanks ever made it into combat. I think they mostly existed on paper, like their hypersonic missiles...
 

Bamaro

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Ukraine strikes another Russian air base, showing vulnerability of defenses

Officials in the Russian city of Kursk, just north of Ukraine, said the Tuesday drone attack set an oil storage tank ablaze at an airfield.

The two airfields struck by drones on Monday — the Engels-2 base in the Saratov region and the Dyagilevo base in Ryazan, a few hours’ drive from Moscow — are home to jet bombers that can carry conventional missiles used to target Ukrainian infrastructure but can also carry nuclear weapons and normally serve as an important component of Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent.
Its about time Ukraine began to strike within Russia!
Ukraine strikes another Russian air base, showing vulnerability of defenses (msn.com)
 

4Q Basket Case

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Latest video, less than 5 minutes, from Peter Zeihan. Talking about the Ukrainian drones.


When I heard about the Ukrainians’ drone attack on Russian air bases, my first thought was, “Where did they get the drones? Hope it wasn’t us, because we and the rest of NATO have gone to great lengths to prevent them from using our missiles and other kit to attack Russia proper.”

Well, it turns out that a lot of the former Soviet areospace industry was in Ukraine, and they have the expertise to make their own drones….which is exactly what they’ve done.

My second thought was, “How did a Ukrainian drone fly several hundred miles through Russian airspace to strike an Air Force base — which you would think would be pretty heavily defended — without being shot down? Or at least detected?”

Don’t have an answer for that one beyond, “It would appear that Russian air defenses are pretty crappy, even around high-value targets.”

Zeihan doesn’t think the Ukrainians can make enough drones to turn the military tide of the war. But he thinks they can destroy Russian oil and gas refineries and transport, which would further cripple Russia’s already-wounded economic ability to carry on the war.

Things are getting interestinger and interestinger.

The Ukrainian military is smaller, but better equipped, better led and more motivated. The Russian military is nominally massive, but its field effectiveness is sorely compromised. They are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and wholly unmotivated. And for a variety of reasons, the stuff they do have often doesn’t work.

Who wins? The first half of 2023 will tell the tale.

Also, what happens to western energy prices if the Russians can’t sell as much oil and gas as they currently do? I would have thought prices would already be through the roof. But it hasn’t happened to he degree I expected. Wish I knew the answer to that one.
 

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