Latest video, less than 5 minutes, from Peter Zeihan. Talking about the Ukrainian drones.
When I heard about the Ukrainians’ drone attack on Russian air bases, my first thought was, “Where did they get the drones? Hope it wasn’t us, because we and the rest of NATO have gone to great lengths to prevent them from using our missiles and other kit to attack Russia proper.”
Well, it turns out that a lot of the former Soviet areospace industry was in Ukraine, and they have the expertise to make their own drones….which is exactly what they’ve done.
My second thought was, “How did a Ukrainian drone fly several hundred miles through Russian airspace to strike an Air Force base — which you would think would be pretty heavily defended — without being shot down? Or at least detected?”
Don’t have an answer for that one beyond, “It would appear that Russian air defenses are pretty crappy, even around high-value targets.”
Zeihan doesn’t think the Ukrainians can make enough drones to turn the military tide of the war. But he thinks they can destroy Russian oil and gas refineries and transport, which would further cripple Russia’s already-wounded economic ability to carry on the war.
Things are getting interestinger and interestinger.
The Ukrainian military is smaller, but better equipped, better led and more motivated. The Russian military is nominally massive, but its field effectiveness is sorely compromised. They are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and wholly unmotivated. And for a variety of reasons, the stuff they do have often doesn’t work.
Who wins? The first half of 2023 will tell the tale.
Also, what happens to western energy prices if the Russians can’t sell as much oil and gas as they currently do? I would have thought prices would already be through the roof. But it hasn’t happened to he degree I expected. Wish I knew the answer to that one.
