Russia Invades Ukraine X

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92tide

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that's a shame


Dugina's father is a Russian author and ideologue, credited with being the architect or "spiritual guide" to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He is purported to have significant influence over Russian President Vladimir Putin and was described as "Putin's Brain" by Foreign Affairs magazine.
 

PaulD

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Russia’s spies misread Ukraine and misled Kremlin as war loomed

"In the final days before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s security service began sending cryptic instructions to informants in Kyiv. Pack up and get out of the capital, the Kremlin collaborators were told, but leave behind the keys to your homes.

"The directions came from senior officers in a unit of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) with a prosaic name—the Department of Operational Information—but an ominous assignment: ensure the decapitation of the Ukrainian government and oversee the installation of a pro-Russian regime.

"The messages were a measure of the confidence in that audacious plan. So certain were FSB operatives that they would soon control the levers of power in Kyiv, according to Ukrainian and Western security officials, that they spent the waning days before the war arranging safe houses or accommodations in informants’ apartments and other locations for the planned influx of personnel."

Oops.
 
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Tidewater

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Russia’s spies misread Ukraine and misled Kremlin as war loomed

"In the final days before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s security service began sending cryptic instructions to informants in Kyiv. Pack up and get out of the capital, the Kremlin collaborators were told, but leave behind the keys to your homes.

"The directions came from senior officers in a unit of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) with a prosaic name—the Department of Operational Information—but an ominous assignment: ensure the decapitation of the Ukrainian government and oversee the installation of a pro-Russian regime.

"The messages were a measure of the confidence in that audacious plan. So certain were FSB operatives that they would soon control the levers of power in Kyiv, according to Ukrainian and Western security officials, that they spent the waning days before the war arranging safe houses or accommodations in informants’ apartments and other locations for the planned influx of personnel."

Oops.
Believing their own propaganda, I suppose.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Russia’s spies misread Ukraine and misled Kremlin as war loomed

"In the final days before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s security service began sending cryptic instructions to informants in Kyiv. Pack up and get out of the capital, the Kremlin collaborators were told, but leave behind the keys to your homes.

"The directions came from senior officers in a unit of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) with a prosaic name—the Department of Operational Information—but an ominous assignment: ensure the decapitation of the Ukrainian government and oversee the installation of a pro-Russian regime.

"The messages were a measure of the confidence in that audacious plan. So certain were FSB operatives that they would soon control the levers of power in Kyiv, according to Ukrainian and Western security officials, that they spent the waning days before the war arranging safe houses or accommodations in informants’ apartments and other locations for the planned influx of personnel."

Oops.
If he were sane, or smart, he would have learned something from that bloody nose...
 

Tidewater

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Interesting details.
Ukrainian partisans in occupied Melitopol reveal details of their activity

According to the partisan, after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, he was sent to a secret cache in a warehouse near Melitopol. There he found explosives, detonators, Kalashnikov assault rifles, a grenade launcher and two silenced pistols.

So far reading a lot about stuff in Melitopol, but not elsewhere. For this to be effective, it needs to be widespread and constant.
 
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4Q Basket Case

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Regarding Dugin’s daughter, I think there are three primary possibilities:

- Putin sending a message to Dugin and others in his (Putin’s) circle. This one, I’m a bit dubious about.

Killing a man‘s daughter isn’t the recommended way of engendering loyalty, but then Putin hasn’t shown a ton of mental acuity lately. Still, I think Putin would more likely go the route of showing Dugin a picture of the daughter at home, and say how terrible it would be if someone from the outside were to try to harm her. Then point out that the best way to keep her safe would be to ensure that the KGB or FSB continues to have a reason to stay engaged in her ”protection.”

- Others in Putin’s circle sending a message to Putin. If this is the case, I think they were going for Dugin himself, and just got unlucky that the daughter was driving her dad’s car. IOW, the daughter was an unintended civilian casualty.

- Someone from the outside — Ukrainian special forces or Russian nationals sympathetic to Ukraine. If this is the case, I also think the real target was Dugin, not the daughter.

Trotting out Occam’s Razor, I’m going with option #2. It would be much easier for a member of the inner circle to get access to Dugin’s car long enough to plant a bomb than it would be for an outsider — whether that outsider was Russian or Ukrainian. Also, the inner circle is the group that’s getting pinched financially, so they have a financial motive. It’s also possible that they might think the war is a bad mistake, wasting Russian men and resources. So they could be be secretly sympathetic to Ukraine and have non-monetary motivations.

Either way, I think Dugin was the target, and the daughter was just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Thing is, if Putin didn’t order the hit, he knows that whoever did is getting up close and personal with his inner circle…which could drive even more paranoia than he already exhibits. Paranoia is a rational reaction when they really are out to get you.
 

Tidewater

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Regarding Dugin’s daughter, I think there are three primary possibilities:

- Putin sending a message to Dugin and others in his (Putin’s) circle. This one, I’m a bit dubious about and it was so close to the mark that it got one of the co-authors murdered.

Killing a man‘s daughter isn’t the recommended way of engendering loyalty,
I do not think Dugin's daughter was the target in any case.
As for who did it, it could well have been the FSB.
Blowing Up Russia.
For the record, I do not recommend that book (it stands badly in need of an editor), but it tells an interesting story and it was so close to the mark that it got one of the co-authors murdered.
 
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