Russia Invades Ukraine XVI

I am not current on age group demographics and birth rates in the US but have heard it said that all branches of the US military are struggling to meet recruitment goals to cover replacements.

The misue of our military forces over many years is likely a good indicator of why this is occurring.
It’s occurring over the DEI woke culture that has infiltrated the military since Obama. I listen to a lot of podcasts with former military, it’s a common complaint and the reason morale is the lowest it’s been since Vietnam.
 
During the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln was given a list of losses in a recent battle: 12 generals and 5,000 horses. Lincoln said, "That's too bad about the horses." His point was, show me 12 colonels and I can make 12 generals with the stroke of a pen. Making horses, however, takes years.
Similarly, in the US military if 1,000 of E-5s (Sergeants) are leaving he military, show me 1,000 E-4s and I can fill the shortfall. The question is the quality of those replacements: experience level, proficiency in job skills, judgment, maturitty, etc. The military can wallpaper over a hole in the sheetrock to make it look like everything is okay. The US may not realize it had a drop in quality until we get into a real shooting war, and then the consequences are serious. Politicians tinker with this stuff at the peril of the nation.
 
It’s occurring over the DEI woke culture that has infiltrated the military since Obama. I listen to a lot of podcasts with former military, it’s a common complaint and the reason morale is the lowest it’s been since Vietnam.
It is obvious that I am unable to contemplate military capability anywhere near the level of Tidewater. I also have to admit that I believe that I was mistaken about voting for Obama and Bush due to their incredibly poor leadership (misuse) of the military. When Obama fired McChrystal I lost complete respect for him as a leader. If a leader is so insecure that he can't face other viewpoints they are doomed to failure. Obviously we could discuss all of this for days.
 
It is obvious that I am unable to contemplate military capability anywhere near the level of Tidewater. I also have to admit that I believe that I was mistaken about voting for Obama and Bush due to their incredibly poor leadership (misuse) of the military. When Obama fired McChrystal I lost complete respect for him as a leader. If a leader is so insecure that he can't face other viewpoints they are doomed to failure. Obviously we could discuss all of this for days.

Unfortunately I’ve ran into a lot of these “type A” personalities in my career that can’t handle opposing view points.
 
It is obvious that I am unable to contemplate military capability anywhere near the level of Tidewater. I also have to admit that I believe that I was mistaken about voting for Obama and Bush due to their incredibly poor leadership (misuse) of the military. When Obama fired McChrystal I lost complete respect for him as a leader. If a leader is so insecure that he can't face other viewpoints they are doomed to failure. Obviously we could discuss all of this for days.
I agree with President Obama on this one.
Serving officers do not disrespect the Commander-in-Chief, nor by inaction allow their subordinates to disrespect the Commander-in-Chief.
McChrystal ran afoul of this.
McChrystal was a very capable guy, but there are certain "third rails" in the military, and the strict subordination of the military to civilian authority is a third rail. Do not touch.
 
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I agree with President Obama on this one.
Serving officers do not disrespect the Commander-in-Chief, nor by inaction allow their subordinates to disrespect the Commander-in-Chief.
McChrystal ran afoul of this.
McChrystal was a very capable buy, but there are certain "third rails" in the military, and the strict subordination of the military to civilian authority is a third rail. Do not touch.
No debate on this point but my uneducated view on this suggest to me that McChrystal's staff complaints on a Rolling Stone article hardly compares to MacArthur's venture into North Korea that brought the Chinese into the war. It would be difficult for any leader to attempt to fight a war on the ground, protect the lives of his troops with a political structure that prevents him from applying the necessary force on the ground without approval from Washington.
 
This may be Ukraine's ace in the hole: Chinese revanchism.
China won a big hunk of Siberia in the Treaty of Nerchinsk. In the subsequent Treaty of Aigun, Russia got a huge hunk of Chinese land.
This fissure may be something Kyiv can exploit, if they are clever.
 
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Here is what I was talking about.
I do not know Kimmit, but he has a Ranger Battalion coffee cup and a replica of Iron Mike from Fort Bragg (and the La Fière Causeway), which tells you about his background.
I hope he is wrong, but I fear he is right. Ukraine has to change the game or make the hard assessment to save what they can and pray for better days.
 
It is obvious that I am unable to contemplate military capability anywhere near the level of Tidewater. I also have to admit that I believe that I was mistaken about voting for Obama and Bush due to their incredibly poor leadership (misuse) of the military. When Obama fired McChrystal I lost complete respect for him as a leader. If a leader is so insecure that he can't face other viewpoints they are doomed to failure. Obviously we could discuss all of this for days.

Mccrystal was probably the best guy for the job but letting guys like Flynn run his mouth to a Rolling Stone writer who made it clear “we aren’t off the record” is a very bad choice of judgment. I often think what would’ve happened if Mcchystal stayed on instead of being replaced by Petraus, but i still come to the same conclusion… we lost the war the second we tried to rebuild Afghanistan into a puppet state. Maybe there is less senseless deaths under Mcchystal but in the end Afghanistan was already lost by 2010.

But as far as the “firing”, I really don’t see any other decision Obama could’ve done in that case. Mcchystal’s staff said ALOT of things in that interview that would’ve gotten anybody outside the general staff and senior enlisted demoted or Article 92’d. You just don’t directly complain about your leadership in such a public way in the military and you certainly don’t do it in front of the people that are under you.
 
Mccrystal was probably the best guy for the job but letting guys like Flynn run his mouth to a Rolling Stone writer who made it clear “we aren’t off the record” is a very bad choice of judgment. I often think what would’ve happened if Mcchystal stayed on instead of being replaced by Petraus, but i still come to the same conclusion… we lost the war the second we tried to rebuild Afghanistan into a puppet state. Maybe there is less senseless deaths under Mcchystal but in the end Afghanistan was already lost by 2010.

But as far as the “firing”, I really don’t see any other decision Obama could’ve done in that case. Mcchystal’s staff said ALOT of things in that interview that would’ve gotten anybody outside the general staff and senior enlisted demoted or Article 92’d. You just don’t directly complain about your leadership in such a public way in the military and you certainly don’t do it in front of the people that are under you.
Thank you. That adds a lot to my perspective. I do agree that changing objectives in the midst of the war was a huge mistake.
 
Mccrystal was probably the best guy for the job but letting guys like Flynn run his mouth to a Rolling Stone writer who made it clear “we aren’t off the record” is a very bad choice of judgment. I often think what would’ve happened if Mcchystal stayed on instead of being replaced by Petraus, but i still come to the same conclusion… we lost the war the second we tried to rebuild Afghanistan into a puppet state. Maybe there is less senseless deaths under Mcchystal but in the end Afghanistan was already lost by 2010.

But as far as the “firing”, I really don’t see any other decision Obama could’ve done in that case. Mcchystal’s staff said ALOT of things in that interview that would’ve gotten anybody outside the general staff and senior enlisted demoted or Article 92’d. You just don’t directly complain about your leadership in such a public way in the military and you certainly don’t do it in front of the people that are under you.
McChrystal's staff called VP Biden "Bite Me" in front of a Rolling Stone journalist, who (surprised!) reported as much. Can't allow that.
Looking back on it, in 2002, the US should have handed the keys to the kingdom to Karzai, and given him a check, a handful of SF teams with SOTACs, and lots of airpower. Don't deploy tens of thousands of soldiers and marines. Don't try to get the Afghans to vote. Don't try to build a Jeffersonian democracy. Focus on killing al Qaeda and particularly bin Ladin.
The army, however, loves a long war with lots of combat infantryman badges, combat action badges, bronze stars, etc. and all the promotion preference that comes with those. A shooting war draws ambitious soldiers like a doe in heat attracts bucks.
 
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This is how I thought Ukraine should have attacked for a while. Shadow forces, snipers, fight the way terrorists fight in Afghanistan.

I would terrorize Crimea if it were me.
The problem is that most of the people on Crimea are pro-Kremlin ethnic Russians. They will not keep secret any sightings of Ukrainian guerillas. In fact, they would call the cops if they saw guerillas.

Inside the "mainland" Ukraine territory occupied by Russia, a bunch of the young men skedaddled in 2022. By subtraction of the young, the population remaining got a lot older and more pro-Russian. I am fairly certain that the Ukrainians did a lot of prep workl before the war (selecting, vetting, and training people, cacheing equipment, rehearsing tactics, etc.). The problem is replacing losses. Each guerilla who dies or is captured is difficult to replace, although heavy-handed Russian reactions makes recruiting replacements a bit easier.
 
The Russians in occupied Ukraine are taking a page from the US playbook in the Civil War. In July 1862, someone hanged two Union soldiers outside Germantown, Tennessee, so Sherman ordered his troops to burn the town.
In September, 1862, someone on the river bank near Randolph took pot shots at the river boat Eugene, so Sherman ordered the 46th Ohio Infantry to burn that town, even though he knew the people of the town had nothing to do with it. He was relying on the now homeless townspeople to dissuade Confederate soldiers from shooting at Union vessels in the future.
Near where I live, in October 1864, Phil Sheridan ordered his troopers to burn the town of Dayton because uniformed Confederate troops had shot a Union officer in a firefight outside the town. Sheridan knew the townspeople had had nothing to do with it. He just wanted revenge.
These tactics are similar to the 2nd SS Panzer Division at Oradour, France. Just punish the civilians for whatever happens nearby.
The Russians are behaving similarly in occupied Ukraine. It is vicious, and cruel, and indiscriminate.
 
What about holding a plebiscite in the occupied areas and let the people decide?
Fine in principle. Two problems, I suppose.
1. A lot of the Ukrainian citizens fled with the Ukrainian government. Will they be allowed to vote in absentia?
2. The Kremlin has tried to encourage Russian citizens to move into the occupied territories. Should they be allowed to vote in a plebiscite?

I think these two questions will largely determine whether the occupied territories will vote to remain part of Russia or part of Ukraine.
 
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Fine in principle. Two problems, I suppose.
1. A lot of the Ukrainian citizens fled with the Ukrainian government. Will they be allowed to vote in absentia?
2. The Kremlin has tried to encourage Russian citizens to move into the occupied territories. Should they be allowed to vote in a plebiscite?

I think these two questions will largely determine whether the occupied territories will vote to remain part of Russia or part of Ukraine.
The news today reported a large missile attack on Ukraine's infrastructure. It is beginning to appear to me that Ukraine is doomed as support from the US declines dramatically or stops all together. One could say the same about allowing Iran and North Korea to supply troops and munitions to Russia by sea reflects on the will of the west to save Ukraine. Is Ukraine doomed? I would appreciate your thoughts.
 

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