Russia Invades Ukraine XVI

Tidewater

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Snyder is well thought of. I have two of his books on the bookshelf.
In this case, I think he is off-base. Ukraine is not Czechoslovakia. 2024 Russia is not 1938 Germany. Not closely enough to make the argument by analogy work. And NATO today is not the Franco-British alliance of 1939.
2024 Russia is, I believe more analogous to the 1912 Ottoman Empire.
 

Its On A Slab

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Snyder is well thought of. I have two of his books on the bookshelf.
In this case, I think he is off-base. Ukraine is not Czechoslovakia. 2024 Russia is not 1938 Germany. Not closely enough to make the argument by analogy work. And NATO today is not the Franco-British alliance of 1939.
2024 Russia is, I believe more analogous to the 1912 Ottoman Empire.
I also think that, even though it has been reported that Putin has put Russia on a war footing with industry, the Russian economy is dwarfed by most other nations. Even if he ramps up production of war materiel to a great extent, how is he going to fund a many-pronged invasion of NATO countries? NATO will not be the aggressor if a war does break out. And where is Russia going to find an army to fight after he's killed off so many of his young and able men in his population in the Ukraine meatgrinder? There is only so far that Chechen, prisoner and other mercenaries will go to push his stupid aims.
 

TIDE-HSV

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SMH

I think we've seen the end of "escalation management." I understand this only applies to Kharkiv, which is unique in that RF forces are grouping and regrouping on Russian soil so close to the front. I look for this to pull the teeth of the Russian advance on Kharkiv. If it's expanded to the fronts further east and south, it will cramp the Russians' style there also...
 

4Q Basket Case

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A 5-6 minute video from Peter Zeihan.

Ukraine: F-16s, Offensives, and Abject Humiliation || Peter Zeihan (youtube.com)

He says that there's going to be a major Ukranian offensive in the coming months, and this time it'll be with some serious air support, maybe even local air superiority.

According to Zeihan, the reason previous offensives bogged down was that they were with tanks and infantry, but without meaningful air cover. They got shelled heavily, lost lots of men and machines, and didn't have any worthwhile gains to show for the sacrifice.

So now they're preparing the battlefield by taking out as much of the Russkies' air defenses as possible ahead of pushing off, making it easier to exploit the ground-support capabilities of the F-16s that they're training on right now.

Lots of caveats and lots of iffity ifs. But he's cautiously optimistic that, while this won't end the war, it could be a military humiliation for the Russians. The type that, in the past, has caused Russians to back down and possibly governments to fall.

I think he's a bit over-optimistic there. But other than lots of Russians being killed, this is the first good news in a while.
 

TIDE-HSV

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A 5-6 minute video from Peter Zeihan.

Ukraine: F-16s, Offensives, and Abject Humiliation || Peter Zeihan (youtube.com)

He says that there's going to be a major Ukranian offensive in the coming months, and this time it'll be with some serious air support, maybe even local air superiority.

According to Zeihan, the reason previous offensives bogged down was that they were with tanks and infantry, but without meaningful air cover. They got shelled heavily, lost lots of men and machines, and didn't have any worthwhile gains to show for the sacrifice.

So now they're preparing the battlefield by taking out as much of the Russkies' air defenses as possible ahead of pushing off, making it easier to exploit the ground-support capabilities of the F-16s that they're training on right now.

Lots of caveats and lots of iffity ifs. But he's cautiously optimistic that, while this won't end the war, it could be a military humiliation for the Russians. The type that, in the past, has caused Russians to back down and possibly governments to fall.

I think he's a bit over-optimistic there. But other than lots of Russians being killed, this is the first good news in a while.
I haven't posted any of Tom Cooper's stuff in a while. The battlefield had sort of coagulated and Tom was spending all his time criticizing the US and the rest of NATO, EU, etc., when he patently misunderstands political realities. (And his nation, Austria, is contributing nothing militarily, remaining "neutral," and continues to benefit Russia greatly financially.) However, Tom knows planes. He doesn't think the F-16s are going to benefit Ukraine much, mostly because of much shorter radar range than the Russian air force...
 
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TIDE-HSV

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Tom Cooper introduced us to Don Hill. I prefer the updates from Don Hill much better as he tells and documents what is actually going on in Ukraine.

Ukraine Update by Don Hill
I read most of Don's. He submerges me in detail occasionally. As I said, Tom does know planes, air warfare and air defense and this below is a pretty informative article. He does repeat that he thinks only 235s would help...

Tom Cooper
 

4Q Basket Case

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Good article from the WSJ on the Ukrainians use of naval drones.

It's probably paywalled, but the bottom line is that they're really creative in their thinking, and resourceful in working around physical and electronic obstacles. They've had a material impact on the Russian Navy, destroying a number of ships. And the ones still afloat are bottled up. Either way, the Russian Navy is effectively out of the war.

How Ukraine’s Naval Drones Turned the Tide in the Battle of the Black Sea - WSJ

Not addressed in the article is some bad news: If the Ukrainians can do this, what's to keep other cash-poor countries who don't like us so much from mounting similar attacks against the US?
 
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TIDE-HSV

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Something to be aware of - one of Russia's leading propagandists has reverted to calling it a "police action," dropping "war" and even the "special operation" terminology. This may mean nothing - or it could be preparing the ground for some sort of withdrawal. He pointed out they had installed no "dragon's teeth," mines, etc. (Ha!) He says they never wanted to conquer Ukraine. Stay posted. Here is the URL, but it's Medium-paywalled...

Combellick
 

crimsonaudio

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Not addressed in the article is some bad news: If the Ukrainians can do this, what's to keep other cash-poor countries who don't like us so much from mounting similar attacks against the US?
The Ukraine war has made obvious that the era of tank warfare is now over. If a $500 drone can kiII a $10 million tank ... tanks are obsolete and won't be built. Next up? Naval ships. Imagine 1,000 drones (cost $500,000) sinking an Aircraft Carrier ($13 billion). China knows.

Screenshot 2024-06-24 at 1.54.16 PM.png
 

crimsonaudio

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I think that's a bit overblown - warfare is always changing, and smart people will devise ways to defense against drone attacks, or at least mitigate their effectiveness.

But I doubt anyone foresaw modern tanks being made so ineffective so quickly by cheap tech...
 

4Q Basket Case

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Something to be aware of - one of Russia's leading propagandists has reverted to calling it a "police action," dropping "war" and even the "special operation" terminology. This may mean nothing - or it could be preparing the ground for some sort of withdrawal. He pointed out they had installed no "dragon's teeth," mines, etc. (Ha!) He says they never wanted to conquer Ukraine. Stay posted. Here is the URL, but it's Medium-paywalled...

Combellick
The leading propagandists are in Putin's pocket. There's no way he didn't know about and bless that publication....which makes it really interesting.

At the very least, that does sound like they're planning to retreat. I'm curious to see if they back all the way out of the "breakaway" oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Even before the sham votes during the war, they were favoring Russian rule.

Unless there are strategic military considerations beyond my understanding, if I were the Ukrainians, I'd think seriously about evacuating everyone who wants to leave, then ceding the breakaways to the Russians. They're wrecks right now anyway, and the Russians have exceedingly limited resources to change that.

Yes, I know the Ukrainians have been wronged. Yes, I know they deserve reparations (good luck with that, even if you drive the Russians back to the 2019 borders). But they're also running out of men. The Russians can sustain losses that the Ukrainians can't and can do it for longer.

At some point you have to consider what your country is like after the fighting ends.
 

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