Russia Invades Ukraine XVI

[Tidewater]

Is that how they are being cut, dropping an anchor? How deep are these cables?

I would bet most are cut by a submersible using something like a circular saw.
In the case of the Chinese ship cutting the cable off Estonia, It could be they were dragging their anchor to see if that worked.
The depths of the Baltic vary.

Much of it is not very deep.

 

[Tidewater]

Commander of US INDOPACOM weighs in.
US admiral says sending Israel and Ukraine weapons like Patriot missiles is eating into what's needed for countering China

This is my real fear about aid to Ukraine. I like North Korean soldiers getting killed in Ukraine as much as the next guy (every one killed is one less to fight South Korea), but it comes at a cost and we have limited assets.
While the Europeans have no responsibilities in Taiwan, the US do.

 

[Tidewater]

They do it in the movies

View attachment 47284

cheesy movie. Big Mo firing a broadside is worth a watch

True.
During the Korea War, a North Korea artillery battery hit USS Wisconsin. Wisconsin responded giving the North Koreans a broadside, obliterating the North Korean battery. An escorting destroyer signaled to Wisconsin, "Temper, temper."

 

[TexasBama]

True.
During the Korea War, a North Korea artillery battery hit USS Wisconsin. Wisconsin responded giving the North Koreans a broadside, obliterating the North Korean battery. An escorting destroyer signaled to Wisconsin, "Temper, temper."

She was the last battleship to fire her 16 inch guns, in Desert Storm. They were using spotter drones for the big guns by then, and in one instance the Iraqis surrendered to the drone, knowing what came after.

 

[Bazza]

The Biden administration has approved sending anti-personnel mines to Ukraine for the first time in another major policy shift, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed. CNN’s Natasha Bertrand reports.

 

[Tidewater]

Okay, this is weird.
I do not know Professor Tim Wilson.

He says Moscow officials have all left town. He does not cite a source. I have checked my usual sources and found no mention of Moscow folks leaving town.

Then I saw this:
U.S. Embassy In Kyiv Closes Amid Air Strike Threat
Put one and one together, and it might mean nothing. Or it might be something.

 

[crimsonaudio]

New video shows Russian ICBM strike against Dnipro this morning. It’s the first time in human history that an ICBM has been used in a war. Incredible footage

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859562244410888634

 

[crimsonaudio]

Nothing like ratcheting up the war right before you leave office...

Powerful Russian missile strike on targets in Dnepropetrovsk The arrivals of at least four missiles are visible. According to other sources, these were the arrivals of four warheads from a multiple warhead of an ICBM. In front of the ICBM, the Russian Kinzhals destroyed a battery of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. UPD: The enemy stated that Russia struck the Yuzhmash plant early in the morning with an intercontinental ballistic missile launched from the Kapustin Yar test site, which caused serious damage to the plant's workshops.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859548377849184350

 

[Tidewater]

Nothing like ratcheting up the war right before you leave office...

Powerful Russian missile strike on targets in Dnepropetrovsk The arrivals of at least four missiles are visible. According to other sources, these were the arrivals of four warheads from a multiple warhead of an ICBM. In front of the ICBM, the Russian Kinzhals destroyed a battery of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. UPD: The enemy stated that Russia struck the Yuzhmash plant early in the morning with an intercontinental ballistic missile launched from the Kapustin Yar test site, which caused serious damage to the plant's workshops.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859548377849184350

Two thoughts:
1. The voice over contained some not very nice words in Russian.
2. This is a really expensive way to deliver ordinance.

I was at an exercise when a USAF guy suggested using ICBMs with conventional warheads to attack some high value target inside the territory of a nuclear-capable (fictional) opponent. When I suggested urinalysis for the USAF guy, he was surprised and said, "I said ICBMs with only conventional explosives." I painted a picture for the group: "In the enemy capitol, a military advisor goes into the president's office and says, 'Our launch detection system has detected multiple ICBM launches in the USA. It appears enemy ICBMs are headed our way, but its okay, those missiles are tipped with conventional explosives, we believe.'"
Then I asked the group, "What do you think the enemy president's response is going to be?"
That ended the discussion on using ICBMs to deliver conventional explosives.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Saber-rattling or flex?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces carried out an Operational Test last night of a New Experiment Medium-Range Ballistic Missile equipped with a Non-Nuclear Hypersonic Warhead, which had been dubbed “Oreshnik.” The Test was conducted against the Yuzhmash Missile Plant near the City of Dnipro in Central Ukraine, and was considered Successful.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859652237267698114

 

[Tidewater]

Saber-rattling or flex?

What is the difference between the two?

 

[crimsonaudio]

What is the difference between the two?

Saber-rattling is a faux show of force, something you're threatening but aren't will to actually do.

Flex is showing what you can and are willing to do.

 

[Tidewater]

Saber-rattling is a faux show of force, something you're threatening but aren't will to actually do.

Flex is showing what you can and are willing to do.

Gotcha.
The ICBM strikes had two audiences, I think.
One was Ukraine: we can hit you with missiles you cannot stop.
The other was the US: "We may launch ICBMs and the warheads could be conventional or nuclear and you will not know until they land on their targets."
The former is morally repugnant.
The latter is pretty scary and destabilizing.

 

[jthomas666]

True.
During the Korea War, a North Korea artillery battery hit USS Wisconsin. Wisconsin responded giving the North Koreans a broadside, obliterating the North Korean battery. An escorting destroyer signaled to Wisconsin, "Temper, temper."

My brother was stationed on a guided missle destroyer in the Gulf during the Iraq-Iran War. A gun emplacement on a hill opened fire on the fleet. The captain of the battleship told his gunnery crew, "You get two shots." Shortly afterwards the first shot thundered across the waves. The targeting officer told the captain, "We won't need that second shot, sir."

"Is the emplacement gone?"

"Yes sir...so is the hill."

 

[TexasBama]

Just a thought, but perhaps Putin is using ICBMs because he doesn’t have anything else to use, and he doesn’t have any nuke warheads for them anyway.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Just a thought, but perhaps Putin is using ICBMs because he doesn’t have anything else to use, and he doesn’t have any nuke warheads for them anyway.

This was a demonstration of their hypersonic delivery system (MIRVs apparently reached mach10).

I doubt they're that low on missiles, especially with NK joining the ranks. And I've little doubt China will supply them with whatever they need.

This was a flex to show they have capabilities we do not.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed the use of the Oreshnik ballistic missile in an attack on the Yuzhmash complex in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine. This missile, in its non-nuclear version, is hypersonic and can reach speeds of 2-3 km/s, making it undetectable by current anti-missile defenses. According to experts, Oreshnik can be equipped with a nuclear charge, which increases its strategic potential. Putin said the attack was a response to US plans to produce and deploy medium- and short-range missiles. He also said Russia would act "resolutely and symmetrically" against any escalation, although it prefers peaceful solutions. He also promised to warn Ukrainian civilians before attacking dangerous areas."

 

[TexasBama]

This was a demonstration of their hypersonic delivery system (MIRVs apparently reached mach10).

I doubt they're that low on missiles, especially with NK joining the ranks. And I've little doubt China will supply them with whatever they need.

This was a flex to show they have capabilities we do not.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed the use of the Oreshnik ballistic missile in an attack on the Yuzhmash complex in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine. This missile, in its non-nuclear version, is hypersonic and can reach speeds of 2-3 km/s, making it undetectable by current anti-missile defenses. According to experts, Oreshnik can be equipped with a nuclear charge, which increases its strategic potential. Putin said the attack was a response to US plans to produce and deploy medium- and short-range missiles. He also said Russia would act "resolutely and symmetrically" against any escalation, although it prefers peaceful solutions. He also promised to warn Ukrainian civilians before attacking dangerous areas."

Makes sense. I wasn't sure an ICBM would work at such a comparatively close range.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Makes sense. I wasn't sure an ICBM would work at such a comparatively close range.

The agreed upon definition of ICBM is a minimum range of 5,500 km and I've read the Oreshnik has a range of 5,800 km, so it barely qualifies. I suspect in reality it's an IRBM, but what matters is it can hit all of Europe and quite a bit of the US from Russia.

 

[Tidewater]

Okay, here is what's new:
Zelensky Says Ukraine-Russia War Ends ‘Faster’ With Trump—Here’s What Trump Has Said About Ending Conflict
1. In May 2024, Putin says he is ready to order a ceasefire which recognizes the front lines as they now are.
2. Ukraine invaded Kursk Oblast (Russia) in Augusta 2024.
3. Zelensky in 2022 had signalled readiness to accept a peace deal which meant Ukrainian neutrality (i.e. no NATO membership).
4. Zelensky says the war will end faster under the Trump Administration. (Without specifying how).
5. Ukrainian troops angry at lack of replacements.

Again the issue of not drafting 18-25 year olds. Ukrainians are not enlisting and folks back home seem to be forgetting that the country is at war.
You can see the outlines of a peace deal forming here.

Now, I do not know if Zelensky can sell to the Ukrainian population anything less than return to the pre-2014 borders. He could say, "I do not want to give up, even temporarily, the territories, but we need peace to rebuild the country. And the West is forcing me to accept this deal."
The problem is that any guarantee of Ukrainian security we give will not be believed because we guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine because the US already guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity in 1994 under Clinton, and under Obama, we stood by and did nothing when Putin annexed Crimea and openly invaded in support of the Donbas "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk. We sent medical supplies and radios, but no weapons.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Two thoughts:
1. The voice over contained some not very nice words in Russian.
2. This is a really expensive way to deliver ordinance.

I was at an exercise when a USAF guy suggested using ICBMs with conventional warheads to attack some high value target inside the territory of a nuclear-capable (fictional) opponent. When I suggested urinalysis for the USAF guy, he was surprised and said, "I said ICBMs with only conventional explosives." I painted a picture for the group: "In the enemy capitol, a military advisor goes into the president's office and says, 'Our launch detection system has detected multiple ICBM launches in the USA. It appears enemy ICBMs are headed our way, but its okay, those missiles are tipped with conventional explosives, we believe.'"
Then I asked the group, "What do you think the enemy president's response is going to be?"
That ended the discussion on using ICBMs to deliver conventional explosives.

FWIW, Tom Cooper says they're both lying...