Russia Invades Ukraine XX

[Elefantman]

Just watched a fascinating interview with the man who heads Ukraine's unman forces. Prior to the war he was a business man who traveled abroad. He would bring home toy drones for his kids. That was the extent of his drone expertise prior to the war. There was a need to see what the enemy was doing on the other side of a hill or ridge so he started using drones. Then he built the drone force that is crippling Russia today.

Search YouTube for Caolan Robertson "This man is destroying Putin's empire". I'm not going to link it because the man uses salty langage.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Russia has always been extremely hard, but brittle. The military takes a pounding for months and years, but doesn't flinch. The people put up with an incredible amount of trouble and suffering for long periods of time. Until one day, the Army and the people don't anymore. And the whole thing crumbles really fast.

Can Ukraine hold out long enough for the Russian Army and people to get fed up and revolt? Putin finds lots of windows for rebels and their leaders to jump out of. So I think things would have to be far worse than they are now for a broad-based uprising to develop.

Can Russia grind Ukraine to dust before all that happens? I don't know. Six months ago, I would have said yes. Today, I'm not so sure. Ukraine is reaching highly sensitive military targets flying drones and missiles, penetrating 1,000 miles of Russian air defense, into refineries and manufacturing facilities around Moscow. It's clear the Ukrainians could strike Moscow if they wanted.

Whoever collapses first, I expect the end to be a surprise. More attrition, more attrition, more attrition until one day one side suddenly falls apart. Which one? When? I wish I knew.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Russia has always been extremely hard, but brittle. The military takes a pounding for months and years, but doesn't flinch. The people put up with an incredible amount of trouble and suffering for long periods of time. Until one day, the Army and the people don't anymore. And the whole thing crumbles really fast.

Can Ukraine hold out long enough for the Russian Army and people to get fed up and revolt? Putin finds lots of windows for rebels and their leaders to jump out of. So I think things would have to be far worse than they are now for a broad-based uprising to develop.

Can Russia grind Ukraine to dust before all that happens? I don't know. Six months ago, I would have said yes. Today, I'm not so sure. Ukraine is reaching highly sensitive military targets flying drones and missiles, penetrating 1,000 miles of Russian air defense, into refineries and manufacturing facilities around Moscow. It's clear the Ukrainians could strike Moscow if they wanted.

Whoever collapses first, I expect the end to be a surprise. More attrition, more attrition, more attrition until one day one side suddenly falls apart. Which one? When? I wish I knew.

You can actually wager on it...

 

[Tidewater]

CSIS (think-tank in Washington) believes the Ukrainians have upped the attrition ratio from 3:1 up to 8:1.
1.4 million Russian casualties (KWM). 450,000 KIA.

 

[Tidewater]

I just checked Deep State Maps, which uses Russian social media reporting verified by secondary sources. Russia still seems to be making tiny, glacial advances around Konstantinivka, Starokrainka, and Dobropillya. And I emphasize "tiny" and "glacial."

 

[crimsonaudio]

The future of war is now and... yikes...

Petraeus: The death zone in Ukraine extends 35 kilometers on either side of the front lines — defined by drone battery life. Tanks can't survive. Armored vehicles can't survive. Nothing can. Neither side even drives vehicles anymore. Russians keep trying and keep proving it.

No trenches — drones fly through. Soldiers in survivability positions hundreds of meters apart, not mutually supporting. Resupplied by ground robots. Commanders can't visit the front line. Soldiers stay 60+ days. In urban areas, some couldn't be extracted for months.

Russian advances mean individual soldiers running forward trying to dig in. Drone units pick them up immediately, cycle surveillance drones, then FPV attack drones arrive. You see them hitting around the soldier in the woods until one connects. It doesn't end well.

Ukraine is about to isolate Crimea. Gasoline so short they won't sell it to civilians. Tourists who came for beaches are trying to get home any way they can. Kerch Bridge rail no longer works. Ferries knocked out. Land bridges destroyed. Pontoon bridges now targeted. P

Ukraine took down Russia's air defenses steadily. Russia pulls them to Moscow — vulnerabilities open everywhere else. Moscow refinery hit three nights running, out at least six months. They're going after fuel storage, refineries, gas lines from Siberia to the west.

Real prospect now that Putin might need a cessation of hostilities himself. Oil sanctions reimposed, national welfare fund running out of money. Crimea isolated, front lines cut off, economy crushed — all of this could force Putin to recognize he should end this war.

Source: text of Tymofiy Milovanov