SECCG Tiebreaker scenario mess

Jmo

10-2 and we are 100% in

10-3 and we maybe have a 15-20% chance based on specific chaos happening.

It would be better to miss the SECCG.

There are a lot of 1-2 loss teams we are lumped in with now.

A 3rd loss virtually knocks us out without a lot of other teams picking up additional losses too.

I think the selection committee has said that they wouldn't hold a conference championship game loss against you... But nobody in the world trusts them. Waiting for this to happen.
 
Beat Barney in the barnyard then can we just not gather at an undisclosed diner with the other two coaches and flip a coin? It worked in Friday Night Lights, perhaps Billy Bob Thornton could be our guest flipper.
 
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I think the selection committee has said that they wouldn't hold a conference championship game loss against you... But nobody in the world trusts them. Waiting for this to happen.

They are liars. Every year they lie.

Every year they contradict themselves.

I keep bringing it up because I knew they wouldn’t put us in last year no matter what they said or what the FPI metrics said.

So many people believed they would put us in specifically because of the false hope the committee was giving out.

Then they snatched the rug out and people were upset.

It upset me not because I was shocked but because they lied to everyone.

They are no more trustworthy than a snake oil salesman or a used car salesman.

If we want to be in the CFBP this year we have to be either 10-2 or 11-2
 
Based on the chairman's weird comments about ND's losses being better than our wins, a loss in the SEC championship game against an A$M or Dawg team shouldn't hurt us.

But as others have said, can we trust they'd stay consistent with that?

IMO, his comments sounded more like Bama fatigue than true logic because I think a lot of people outside of our fanbase saw it that way too.

One of the biggest barners out there (Scarbinski) was all over that last night on Twitter. When a barner is defending Bama, you know it's bad!
 
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Jmo

10-2 and we are 100% in

10-3 and we maybe have a 15-20% chance based on specific chaos happening.

It would be better to miss the SECCG.

There are a lot of 1-2 loss teams we are lumped in with now.

A 3rd loss virtually knocks us out without a lot of other teams picking up additional losses too.

I'd rather have a shot in the SECCG.....have a shot at winning the SEC.....because this team would be a long shot in the playoff.
 
Based on all my button pushing on that site it seems like the most important game to us, other than the obvious Auburn game, is a Vandy win. I couldn’t find any scenarios that had anyone other than us and Aggies or us and UGA in the game with the combination of Vandy beating Kentucky and Bama beating the Barn.

If Vandy loses this weekend and Florida beats Tennessee we would have to rely on Texas beating the Aggies or Missouri beating Arkansas & Vandy beating Tennessee.

If Vandy loses this weekend but UT beats Florida we still will have to rely on Texas, Mizzou, or Vandy to win next weekend.

As much as it pains me to root for Manziel Jr - this weekend it’s Anchor Down - Go ‘Dores!

Of course all of this is cyphered assuming Kiffin’s situation doesn’t blow up the Rebel Bears and cause them to fall apart and lose the Egg Bowl. If that happens the only thing that keeps us out of the game is a loss to the Barn.
It's hard to see KY beating Vandy unless Vandy just lays down and quits and that's NOT their mentality this year. I wouldn't be shocked if Vandy doesn't beat UK and UT!
The question to me is, if we make it to the SEC Championship game and lose, do we make it to the playoffs? I’m not so sure. If we don’t make it to the Championship game, do we have a better chance at getting in with 2 losses instead of 3? That’s were we are with playoff football!

If they start striking teams based on losing their conference championship... That will be the end of those games. Which no longer have a place in any case... I say get rid of them and just have a 16 team playoff. Can continue with bowl games or a loser bracket for the rest of the teams that don't make it in.
I think the surest way into the playoff is also the riskiest. If we beat AU but miss the SEC, I'd be more nervous sitting at 10-2 than 10-3, assuming we lost in a very competitive game.

But if we get to the SECCG we need to win it. That's the surest situation and it'll probably give us a playoff game at home or maybe even a first round bye.
 
I'd rather have a shot in the SECCG.....have a shot at winning the SEC.....because this team would be a long shot in the playoff.

If I could choose and make it happen I’d take the 11-2 SEC Championship and Guaranteed Spot in the CFBP.

Hopefully they would jump us up to a highest ranked Top 4 Conf Champ and get a Bye.

But if the reality were to be a loss the the SECCG and another mid tier bowl game that could set us back image wise with potential Portal Transfers.

We are riding a razor’s edge from hanging around the Top 5-10 programs in CFB or looking like we have fallen off noticeably to everyone.

We don’t have the same deep NIL pockets and need to keep a positive forward momentum filled image.

We need to somehow make the Playoffs.
 
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Agree, while I feel really good about the direction of the program under CKD, I think "optically" we need a spot in the playoff this year.

It would really put alot of pressure on the program in '26 if so.

And, I don't want that because just as it took CNS 3 years to win a NC, I think there is evidence of the program trending in the right direction. The QB room is the kind CKD can win and win BIG with.

But I also know how impatient the Bama Nation can be.

I mean, just look at the board anytime we lose. Just one loss to some means we "hired the wrong guy" OR we need to fire CKD and start all over.
 
It's hard to see KY beating Vandy unless Vandy just lays down and quits and that's NOT their mentality this year. I wouldn't be shocked if Vandy doesn't beat UK and UT!



I think the surest way into the playoff is also the riskiest. If we beat AU but miss the SEC, I'd be more nervous sitting at 10-2 than 10-3, assuming we lost in a very competitive game.

But if we get to the SECCG we need to win it. That's the surest situation and it'll probably give us a playoff game at home or maybe even a first round bye.
If we win out the regular season and win the SEC CG and are NOT in the top four I would probably just quit watching CFB.
 
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If I could choose and make it happen I’d take the 11-2 SEC Championship and Guaranteed Spot in the CFBP.

Hopefully they would jump us up to a highest ranked Top 4 Conf Champ and get a Bye.

But if the reality were to be a loss the the SECCG and another mid tier bowl game that could set us back image wise with potential Portal Transfers.

We are riding a razor’s edge from hanging around the Top 5-10 programs in CFB or looking like we have fallen off noticeably to everyone.

We don’t have the same deep NIL pockets and need to keep a positive forward momentum filled image.

We need to somehow make the Playoffs.

We have fallen off. Georgia has fallen off. College football has fallen off. Parity is the name of the game now. Or you just have programs like Ohio State....Texas Tech....Oregon....with deep donor pockets take over the game like the Dodgers and Yankees do in baseball.

Us falling off means 2 to 3 loss seasons....hopefully with a few better seasons sprinkled in here and there. Of course, change a few bounces of the ball this year and we're 6-4 or 5-5.

I'd love to win the SEC, be 11-2 and win a game or two in the CFP. Would love to win it all.

But....let's beat Auburn and see where we are.
 
If we win out the regular season and win the SEC CG and are NOT in the top four I would probably just quit watching CFB.

If we win out and finish 11-2, I can see them leaving Georgia at 4 if they have finished 11-1.

Ohio State and Indiana will play each other.

We potentially would play ATM.

Even beating ATM, we'd still have to jump Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Georgia.

Notre Dame will finish 10-2...they are in. (Syracuse and Stanford left)
Oklahoma probably finishes 10-2....they'd be in. (Missouri and LSU left)
Oregon likely finishes 11-1....they're in. (USC and Washington)
Ole Miss at 11-1 is in......(Miss. State)

None of those four play in a conference title game.

Texas Tech will finish 11-1 and be in. (West Virginia)....plus BIG12CG vs BYU likely
Georgia will finish 11-1 and be in. (Charlotte and Georgia Tech)

Indiana has Purdue and the BIG10CG
Ohio State has Rutgers then at Michigan...then BIG10CG

ATM has Texas.

Also keep in mind the ACC champ will get in. That title is up for grabs. Georgia Tech and Pitt play this weekend. They both have 1 conference loss. Virginia and SMU both have 1 conference loss.

The highest ranked ACC team is Miami, who has 2 losses.

The ACC is a mess. The Group of crap is a mess. Tulane getting an autobid from #24 is absolutely idiotic.

I doubt even us winning the conference gets us into the top 4. I could see it being Ohio State / Texas Tech / Georgia / Indiana....in that order.
 
If we win out and finish 11-2, I can see them leaving Georgia at 4 if they have finished 11-1.

Ohio State and Indiana will play each other.

We potentially would play ATM.

Even beating ATM, we'd still have to jump Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Georgia.

Notre Dame will finish 10-2...they are in. (Syracuse and Stanford left)
Oklahoma probably finishes 10-2....they'd be in. (Missouri and LSU left)
Oregon likely finishes 11-1....they're in. (USC and Washington)
Ole Miss at 11-1 is in......(Miss. State)

None of those four play in a conference title game.

Texas Tech will finish 11-1 and be in. (West Virginia)....plus BIG12CG vs BYU likely
Georgia will finish 11-1 and be in. (Charlotte and Georgia Tech)

Indiana has Purdue and the BIG10CG
Ohio State has Rutgers then at Michigan...then BIG10CG

ATM has Texas.

Also keep in mind the ACC champ will get in. That title is up for grabs. Georgia Tech and Pitt play this weekend. They both have 1 conference loss. Virginia and SMU both have 1 conference loss.

The highest ranked ACC team is Miami, who has 2 losses.

The ACC is a mess. The Group of crap is a mess. Tulane getting an autobid from #24 is absolutely idiotic.

I doubt even us winning the conference gets us into the top 4. I could see it being Ohio State / Texas Tech / Georgia / Indiana....in that order.

The projections still show miami in the playoffs. Are these people mental? There are teams ahead of them in their own conference standings. Could miami actually get in and the actual ACC champion and runner up not?
 
The projections still show miami in the playoffs. Are these people mental? There are teams ahead of them in their own conference standings. Could miami actually get in and the actual ACC champion and runner up not?

I'm not sure how it works, but the ACC is an absolute mess.

 
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I'm not sure how it works, but the ACC is an absolute mess.

There is a possibility that the ACC gets left out altogether. Surely the committee wouldn't put a 3 or 4 loss conference champ in the playoffs or a team that just lost their conference championship to a 4 loss team?
 
If there's not some rule to guard against it then this gets even stupider.

Yeah, I said stupider!
There is a possibility that the ACC gets left out altogether. Surely the committee wouldn't put a 3 or 4 loss conference champ in the playoffs or a team that just lost their conference championship to a 4 loss team.
 
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There is a possibility that the ACC gets left out altogether. Surely the committee wouldn't put a 3 or 4 loss conference champ in the playoffs or a team that just lost their conference championship to a 4 loss team?

It would depend on where the two highest ranked G5 champions ended up, as CFP rules say that the 5 highest ranked champions from "any conference" get automatic bids.

If, say, the AAC champ (let's go with Navy) and the Sun Belt champ (JMU) both finish higher in the final CFP rankings than the ACC champion, they would get the #11 and #12 spots, and the ACC would likely get left out unless the committee - in it's infinite wisdom - gave the ACC an at-large spot (which would be a travesty).
 
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