Re: How Long Will Shula Be At Bama?
This is all unduly speculative, IMHO. Why are we talking about CMS's future, when THIS season is not even half-over? I, for one, am NOT ready to give up. Bama is fully capable of beating UT, even on the road at the Fortress of Evil, a.k.a. Neiland Stadium. LSU and AU? Not nearly as likely, especially the way LSU is playing. But stranger things have happened. If the wind blows the right way . . . maybe Joe Kines studies the AU/LSU game tape and figures out how to slow down JaMarcus Russel, or maybe AU comes to Bryant-Denny overconfident like UF did last year.
7-5 is a disappointingly probable outcome. 8-4 is a realistic hope. 9-3 and I would turn cartwheels down University Blvd. 10-2, frankly, would take a miracle. But as long as we're speculating . . .
I think that Shula has a home for the next 3 years, no matter what happens. If, in those three years, he continues to improve the program, he will have a job for life.
Hmmm, have to respectfully disagree with the blanket statement that CMS will have a home for 3 more years come hell or high water. This season, all CMS has to do is beat the teams he is supposed to beat, and ONE of the 3 remaining "quality" opponents (preferably UT or AU), and he'll get a pass. Bama fans will grumble, but having braggin' rights over at least ONE decent team goes a long way towards his job security.
Let's say Bama goes 7-5 during the regular season - which is entirely plausible, by the way - and winds up losing the Poulon Weedeater Bowl (or whatever). In that case, the reactionary anti-Shula crowd will be calling for his head, but nothing will happen. The administration, and the fans who actually understand the game, will give him the benefit of the doubt.
Barring a miracle in 2006, however, 2007 will be a critical year for CMS. 2007 is going to be a challenging season. The conference schedule is still murderous (trading UF for UGA, although most of the rough games are at home), and the non-conference schedule is ratcheted up with a game vs. FSU at a "neutral" site - 2.5 hours from Tallahssee. I'm not saying that a NC is required in 2007, but Bama should not lose to Arkansas - hardly ever - and should at least bat .500 against teams like LSU, AU, UT, etc. - year in and year out.
Bama fans are notoriously impatient, as we all know. By next year, CMS will have had three years at full recruitment depth, and all of his players will have been brought up in "his" program from the beginning of their college careers. The "still learning his job" and "the NCAA is the Devil" excuses will start wearing MIGHTY thin. Results matter. If CMS doesn't win all the "gimme" games (INCLUDING Arkansas), and beat 3 of Bama's 5 "quality" opponents (FSU, LSU, UT, UGA and AU), he could be in hot water at the end of 2007.
If 2006 goes in the tank (7-5 or, God forbid, worse), and 2007 is subpar (not at least competing for the right to go to the SECCG), 2008 is going to have to be spectacular (SEC Championship, or maybe an at-large BCS bowl bid) for CMS to survive to 2009.