Space - the final frontier (Misc.) II

[crimsonaudio]

Oof - big setback for Blue Origin's New Glenn during tonight's static fire:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060164928472854821

 

[Elefantman]

I hope they can identify and correct the problem soon

 

[crimsonaudio]

I hope they can identify and correct the problem soon

They will. But the cost of catching up to SpaceX - who continue to progress at a frenetic pace - will be tough with setbacks like this. Luckily, Bezos has LOADS of cash.

 

[crimsonaudio]

FTR, Option 2 below isn't practical as modern pads are vehicle specific in design.

Yesterday's New Glenn explosion was truly catastrophic for Blue Origin...

____________________________________________________________________________
BEZOS HAS 3 OPTIONS LEFT AFTER NEW GLENN'S LAUNCHPAD EXPLOSION. ALL 3 ARE CATASTROPHIC. This is the moment nobody wants to talk about. After years of development, a $1B+ heavy-lift rocket program, and a final ground test before Amazon's Kuiper satellite mission → Blue Origin is now boxed into THREE choices. And every single one is a nightmare:

OPTION 1: REBUILD LC-36 FROM SCRATCH
– The only launchpad Blue Origin owns is now a debris field
– One 600-foot lightning tower toppled. Erector-gantry: gone. Ground equipment: destroyed.
– Pad rebuilds after a full vehicle explosion take 12–24 months minimum
– Amazon's Kuiper constellation — already years behind SpaceX Starlink — falls further behind
– Every month of delay costs Amazon market share it cannot get back

OPTION 2: BORROW OR BUY LAUNCH CAPACITY FROM A COMPETITOR
– The only competitor with available heavy-lift pads is SpaceX
– Asking your direct rival for a launchpad is not a business negotiation — it's a surrender
– SpaceX has every incentive to slow-walk, overcharge, or simply say no
– Amazon would be funding the company that is actively destroying Kuiper's market window
– Jeff Bezos built Blue Origin specifically to avoid this dependency

OPTION 3: ABSORB THE DELAY AND KEEP INVESTING
– New Glenn's first stage was enveloped in fire during a routine hotfire test — the final check before orbital flight
– The vehicle collapsed. The upper stage tilted and fell. Fires burned at multiple stories
– This wasn't a launch failure. This was a ground test. The hardest problems haven't even been attempted yet.
– Blue Origin has no second pad, no backup vehicle, and no timeline for the next attempt
– And Starlink already has 7,000+ satellites in orbit

There is no Option 4. There is no clean exit. There is no "we rebuild and catch up by Q4."The media is showing you "rocket science is hard" and "no injuries reported."They're NOT showing you that Blue Origin just destroyed its only launchpad — the single piece of infrastructure that connects years of development to an actual orbital mission — three hours before midnight on May 28, 2026.This is the most consequential single test failure any American space company has faced since SpaceX's Pad 40 explosion in 2016.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2060339876243890251

 

[Bazza]

That was awesome!

 

[Elefantman]

They will. But the cost of catching up to SpaceX - who continue to progress at a frenetic pace - will be tough with setbacks like this. Luckily, Bezos has LOADS of cash.

True, but he would be wise to take the glowing Amazon reviews on the all sub components used in his rocket with a grain of salt.