UCLA and USC WILL Join the B1G in 2024

TideEngineer08

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I’m sure the Big Ten is considering some combination of UNC, Duke, UVA, and Georgia Tech in order to invade the SEC’s footprint.

I agree the SEC would be wise to head that off.
 

CullmanTide

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NC is over 10 million and Virginia is over 8

I guess you could argue that the addition of Mizzu and ATM kinda got the SEC out of our traditional footprint. Now the addition of OU and Texas expands that a bit, but NC and Virginia schools would be nice jaunt a little further east and north. But Arizona?
Everyone recognizes the value of UNC and Virginia but the SEC has to think outside the box, The BIG sure did. If you haven't noticed the BIG is now coast to coast and has grabbed most of the top TV markets in the process.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Never underestimate the arrogance of the ACC.
Athletically
Challenged
Conference

They play some big-time basketball.

They consider themselves the equal of the BIG10 and superior to the SEC.
Well, they use SEC (and Barner) logic to make their case against the B1G:

"We've been around since 1953! Our teams have won 8 national titles in football! The Big Ten may have 12, but they have more teams, and if you take Ohio State's away, they only have FIVE!"


I am sure they are frantically trying to make moves to solidify their standing, including begging ND to come on in.
This whole debacle looks like a combination of scenes from "Seinfeld" and the epic ending of "The Godfather," with Sankey at the baptism renouncing Satan while the goons gun down the other family leaders (but leave the B1G alone...for now).
 

CajunCrimson

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Everyone recognizes the value of UNC and Virginia but the SEC has to think outside the box, The BIG sure did. If you haven't noticed the BIG is now coast to coast and has grabbed most of the top TV markets in the process.
Most of their new markets will be NFL markets. Not many new eyes.

If the endgame is to capture more watchers from home, then Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Baylor, and others would be desirable targets

They are scooping up markets the SEC could care less about
 

81usaf92

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They play some big-time basketball.



Well, they use SEC (and Barner) logic to make their case against the B1G:

"We've been around since 1953! Our teams have won 8 national titles in football! The Big Ten may have 12, but they have more teams, and if you take Ohio State's away, they only have FIVE!"




This whole debacle looks like a combination of scenes from "Seinfeld" and the epic ending of "The Godfather," with Sankey at the baptism renouncing Satan while the goons gun down the other family leaders (but leave the B1G alone...for now).
The ACC will break eventually. It’s just what dominoe falls first. I think everyone is caught up in the Grant of rights but Sankey will pull his inner Franz Sanchez and say to the President of ACC “ You are only president… for life”.
 

81usaf92

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81usaf92

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But you might be assuming that people in Richmond are UVA fans, and that people in Greensboro are UNC fans. But do we know if that’s the case? Or perhaps they’re watching games featuring The SEC
But we are also assuming that FSU, Clemson, and Miami fan support is still high once they take a major step in talent.

What we DO know is that NC and VA has a large sports population. Whether they are UVA or UNC is irrelevant. Having access to SECN in those states will matter a whole lot more for the SEC.
 

Joefus

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I don’t see the acc going anywhere bc of the grant of rights deal. As I understand it the only way to exit such a deal (and collect any tv revenue for the duration of the deal) is if the conference itself dissolves and seeing how no one wants a third or more of their teams that’s not gonna happen. They’d just add some American/conf USA teams and collect the rest of the money from the current deal. This is the reason Ut and Ok are waiting till ‘25 to join sec. So I see them forcing ND’s hand and adding one more team and sitting at 16 which seems to be the current preferred conf number. The deal they have now is terrible but it may save their bacon in the long run. Who they’d add i dunno. USF maybe or wvu if the new big 12 deal is worse than the acc but I don’t think it will be
 
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JDCrimson

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The SEC if it isn't already needs to be thinking about TV markets, major metro areas. With expansion and inflation, they can't expect fans to travel like they used to.

If I'm the Big 10 and I have the LA market with the addition of USC and UCLA, I look at adding Seattle adding UW and Boston adding Boston College. If they get Notre Dame then they will likely look at adding Miami, lots of catholics down there plus the ND Miami rivalry from days gone by.

This puts the SEC in a position where it absolutely needs to be in the DC, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, maybe even shore up the Atlanta market. I don't think pursuing the Phoenix/Tuscon market is worth the time zone challenge.

The Big 12 and possibly the Mountain West will pursue the leftover land-grant institutions. Meaning I can see FSU, Clemson, NC State, VT, Wake Forest, etc joining the Big 12, which wouldn't be a bad conference.

So with this, if I'm the SEC, it is a must getting UNC, Duke, and UVA then piggy back adding TCU and Kansas. There should also be consideration in adding Louisville and GaTech and Miami. Thereby owning all the major markets below the Ohio River.

The SEC also needs to showcase it games in NFL venues as parts of its expansion. I think the expanded schedule will allow for this opportunity. Maybe a 2-day 2-game ticket opportunity to see an SEC game on Saturday with and NFL game on Sunday.
 
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BhamToTexas

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Agree with a lot of comments here. I know football is the money maker but I keep going back to the fact that all these teams can’t remain football “powerhouses”. The math just doesn’t work. That’s why a Clemson makes no sense. Do you want a 4-8 Clemson football team that brings nothing else? Or a 4-8 UNC football team that brings basketball and the tv market and more $??
 

CajunCrimson

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If this thing reforms into what it looks like…..I really would worry if I’m Vandy, Northwestern, State, and Purdue…. about being forced out. They contribute little and receive tons, while providing no quality markets.
 

selmaborntidefan

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The ACC will break eventually. It’s just what dominoe falls first. I think everyone is caught up in the Grant of rights but Sankey will pull his inner Franz Sanchez and say to the President of ACC “ You are only president… for life”.
I think his better and more fitting line here is “it’s time to start cutting overhead.”
 
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TideEngineer08

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I think the nerd schools are safe. And damn lucky, too. That’s particularly true for the Big Ten, who feigns academic superiority.

Now the nerds of the ACC and some left in the PAC could be sweating bullets. But I say again, there are a few who will welcome this opportunity to shutter the sinful stain of big time football altogether.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Most of their new markets will be NFL markets. Not many new eyes.

If the endgame is to capture more watchers from home, then Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Baylor, and others would be desirable targets

They are scooping up markets the SEC could care less about
That was the thought I had. It's mostly illusory. Large populations do not = college football eyeballs. I remember that, in my time in NYC, I had to dig to the back of the sports section in the Times to find any info about college football...
 

TideEngineer08

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That was the thought I had. It's mostly illusory. Large populations do not = college football eyeballs. I remember that, in my time in NYC, I had to dig to the back of the sports section in the Times to find any info about college football...
LA went without an NFL team for nearly 30 years and barely support a Super Bowl champion today. USC cannot draw 20k unless they’re a top 10 team playing a rival or another ranked opponent and UCLA is worse.
 

KrAzY3

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But you might be assuming that people in Richmond are UVA fans, and that people in Greensboro are UNC fans. But do we know if that’s the case? Or perhaps they’re watching games featuring The SEC
I have spent an enormous amount of time looking over data as it relates to this matter over the years.

First, North Carolina is not SEC territory. They have interest in the SEC, yes but it is North Carolina territory. North Carolina is the most popular football team in the state by a wide margin. Something like 40% of football fans in the state have NC as their favorite team, while Duke and NC State have 10% or less in most areas. But yes there are pockets of areas where Clemson, Georgia, and yes even Alabama finish ahead of Duke and NC State.

The key thing to understand here is that state lines matter enormously in terms of allegiance. People in Greensboro are UNC fans, I'll just provide you New York Times data on that. About 40% are NC fans in Greensboro and 10% are Duke fans (football). To give a point of reference, Birmingham is something like 50/30 Alabama to Auburn fans so the big takeaway here is just how much less people in NC care about the other in-state programs.

There's a lot more to delve into though on this issue. There is a territorial conquest aspect to it. The SEC does a remarkable job of dominating territory it enters. There's not one single state the SEC isn't in in which the SEC has the most popular team though. So, you want allegiance, you want to enter the territory. There's also things like in-state subscriber rates and that sort of things which means millions upon entering certain states.

There's also more to major markets than just comparing fans on a 1:1 ratio. Let's use South Carolina and the LA metro area as an example. If you're an advertiser, which market generally speaking is going to be more attractive? Well, the median income in South Carolina is 54K. In LA it is 77K. The average consumer in LA is going to be more attractive to an advertiser also because there's more potential for word of mouth, trend setting, and that sort of thing. Not only that, but advertising to someone in rural South Carolina is less effective for a lot of products that might not even be available there. On the other hand, success in the LA market can mean easier expansion, improve investor relations and so on. It just makes more sense to advertise in the LA market for a lot of different products, unless you are specifically trying to target rural consumers.

So, when we look at moving into a state we know that it's important because it helps capture that territory. The markets though can matter even more if they have particular demographics. Getting into key parts of Virginia and North Carolina are going to mean more money because they're simply more valuable to advertisers.

Edit: I once had someone tell me that Oklahoma was valuable because it helped enter the Texas market. That's not how it works there or almost anywhere, as soon as you cross the border support for Oklahoma drops to around a third of what it was on the other side. There are rare exceptions to this rule, but the TLDR is if you want to capture the attention of fans in a state you want to have a football program in that state.
 
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