UCLA and USC WILL Join the B1G in 2024

[JDCrimson]

Depending on how scheduling sets up, if a 9 conference game results, then I would look at having a home-away-neutral setup with cross division opponents. Then pick a big market to have the neutral game preferably a dome.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Those 3 add nothing.

They do add quality football TV games. Well, Clemson does. Currently.

Truly, as I think about it more and more, Miami has been an absolute dud program for almost 20 years now. Florida State, almost 10. Clemson could crater just as quickly as those two.

I guess that it’s just that UNC and Virginia have never been anything but duds in football. The basketball is compelling. The demographics are compelling. Whatever is determined to bring in the most $$$ will win in the end.

 

[81usaf92]

That must be what Notre Dame is currently dealing with. The grant of rights deal with the ACC. I don’t know what their penalty would be for breaking that. I suspect, however, that it’s less than the rest of the ACC.

I’m just really having trouble with the idea of UNC right now. And Virginia. I get the demographics. I get the academic prestige. But the football? It’s not as if they are Rutgers, but they aren’t near USC or Notre Dame. And they are not Clemson either (and I’m not advocating Clemson).

Annual UNC vs UK in basketball? Sure. But they play every year anyway, just in December, not February/March.

Clemson and Florida St may eventually factor into the SEC designs but right now the goal is markets and non football sports again. Potentially losing North Carolina and Virginia to the B1G is something the SEC really does not want to do. It pretty much makes the B1G the most lucrative conference in a huge way.

Clemson and Florida St are not going to the B1G even if they wanted to. They aren’t an AAU institute and aren’t Notre Dame. So eventually they will be forced to sign the unconditional surrender to the SEC if they wish to remain relevant. So really why should the SEC prioritize two teams that they already own the market for and two teams the B1G absolutely doesn’t want? They aren’t exactly Oklahoma or Texas.

Right now the SEC’s goal is to not let the B1G invade the Carolina and Virginia markets. Otherwise to add any potential value to the arms race the SEC will be forced to play for the Southwest or Kansas. Because I’m telling you right now that if Florida St and Clemson enter the SEC that football pedigree takes a huge hit in the massive step up in competition and people are going to ask was it worth losing North Carolina basketball for a 4-8 Clemson team

 

[crimsonaudio]

Cal has had mediocre football for years, what will be any different?

This could literally mean the difference in having an FBS football program or an FCS program...

 

[81usaf92]

This could literally mean the difference in having an FBS football program or an FCS program...

I think many schools that you never thought would be FCS could potentially find themselves there.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

It will probably depend on Notre Dame. I suspect that this will apply considerable pressure on them to either join one of the two power conferences or hold the line with the ACC. Because they are about to lose Stanford and USC on their permanent schedule unless some deal can be struck. Those are huge games for Notre Dame.

I think it is also possible that teams like Clemson and Florida St are probably going to try to start backdoor conversations with the SEC just as a contingency measure should Notre Dame jump one way or another

Right now, everybody needs a 'Plan B'.
I think we are still in the Cat Bird Seat, until teams start to move, then we need to consider a couple of team to add.

 

[KrAzY3]

You are right the Big Ten would never take Va Tech. It is AAU schools only for them, and Notre Dame.

I do think the SEC would, but probably only as a package deal to get Virginia. There was a time when I thought Virginia Tech was a shoe in because of football and cultural fit. But it's been somewhat proven now that their football success was mostly due to Frank Beamer, and recruiting advantages that are no longer present. Now, they are a pretty dull addition. Yeah, they've got a rowdy home field advantage, but that's only true when they are good, and it is a night game. That's hardly worthy of adding them to the SEC.

Clemson and Florida St may eventually factor into the SEC designs but right now the goal is markets and non football sports again. Potentially losing North Carolina and Virginia to the B1G is something the SEC really does not want to do. It pretty much makes the B1G the most lucrative conference in a huge way

I read a claim that as things stand at this moment, the Big 10 is poised to make 25 million more per school each year than the SEC. That might sound ludicrous but the SEC signed their big TV deal in the middle of Covid, when things were in turmoil. Not only that, but they added Texas and Oklahoma after that deal was finalized. This means they didn't realize the kind of jump in revenue they could have. Meanwhile the Big 10 added USC and UCLA before their new mammoth deal is done, and to give an example Apple wanted back in negotiations after the move. Just the LA metro area is bigger than all but two states the SEC is in.

So, if the SEC loses more ground or doesn't make smart moves now, and they could find themselves as far behind the Big 10 as the next conference is behind the SEC (which really has been the situation all along, they have been perpetually playing catch-up with the Big 10 ahead on revenue the whole time). The Big 10 just entered a state with almost 40 million people and I've seen claims that USC/UCLA have like 60% of the TV market for the Pac-12. You can't counter that by doubling down on South Carolina, that's for sure.

The only good thing is that the Big 10 seems so fixated on Notre Dame that they might be napping a bit on North Carolina and Virginia. Also, Oregon and Washington really want in as well, and now that the Big 10 is already on the west coast, further expansion there does make some sense. So, my hope is that if for instance the Big 10 does something like Notre Dame, Stanford, Oregon and Washington, the SEC is poised to go ahead and add Virginia and North Carolina somehow despite grant of rights (which Notre Dame has to get around as well).

It's hard to find 4 attractive additions for the SEC though, they'd need to enter a state with a population of around 6.5 million just to keep from lowering the average population per school. Virginia and North Carolina achieve that, but not if they have to double down in either state. If they do move into Virginia, one program that makes some sense would be Pitt.

If the Big 10 manages to add Notre Dame and not Virginia or North Carolina, I would just like to see the SEC add those two schools and call it a day for now. Grant of rights might require a large ACC exodus though and not sure that's worth it to the SEC or the Big 10.

 

[81usaf92]

I read a claim that as things stand at this moment, the Big 10 is poised to make 25 million more per school each year than the SEC. That might sound ludicrous but the SEC signed their big TV deal in the middle of Covid, when things were in turmoil. Not only that, but they added Texas and Oklahoma after that deal was finalized. This means they didn't realize the kind of jump in revenue they could have. Meanwhile the Big 10 added USC and UCLA before their new mammoth deal is done, and to give an example Apple wanted back in negotiations after the move. Just the LA metro area is bigger than all but two states the SEC is in.

So, if the SEC loses more ground or doesn't make smart moves now, and they could find themselves as far behind the Big 10 as the next conference is behind the SEC (which really has been the situation all along, they have been perpetually playing catch-up with the Big 10 ahead on revenue the whole time). The Big 10 just entered a state with almost 40 million people and I've seen claims that USC/UCLA have like 60% of the TV market for the Pac-12. You can't counter that by doubling down on South Carolina, that's for sure.

The only good thing is that the Big 10 seems so fixated on Notre Dame that they might be napping a bit on North Carolina and Virginia. Also, Oregon and Washington really want in as well, and now that the Big 10 is already on the west coast, further expansion there does make some sense. So, my hope is that if for instance the Big 10 does something like Notre Dame, Stanford, Oregon and Washington, the SEC is poised to go ahead and add Virginia and North Carolina somehow despite grant of rights (which Notre Dame has to get around as well).

It's hard to find 4 attractive additions for the SEC though, they'd need to enter a state with a population of around 6.5 million just to keep from lowering the average population per school. Virginia and North Carolina achieve that, but not if they have to double down in either state. If they do move into Virginia, one program that makes some sense would be Pitt.

If the Big 10 manages to add Notre Dame and not Virginia or North Carolina, I would just like to see the SEC add those two schools and call it a day for now. Grant of rights might require a large ACC exodus though and not sure that's worth it to the SEC or the Big 10.

I believe for the SEC the obvious move is North Carolina and Virginia. Pittsburgh actually does make alot of sense as well because you are putting the SEC in both the Pittsburgh and Cleveland markets.

I think the biggest thing is that these 3 probably don’t look good from a football standpoint but from a financial standpoint they are homers. Adding Clemson, FSU, and Miami is not going to have the effect people think. Out of the 3 FSU offers the most and probably is the one that Florida and Georgia may allow in. But Miami and Clemson are going to have extreme pushback from the members both in a financial and competitive recruiting standpoint. South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia would rather see them in FCS than the SEC. But you have to ask why even entertain those 3 potential teams?

 

[BamaFossil]

I thought this was a very thought-provoking article on RBR about why the UCLA may not happen:

I'll believe this when it actually happens

Very interesting article! I've been assuming the USC/UCLA move to the Big 10 would not face many issues. Now I think otherwise. And if UCLA bails (is forced to bail...), does USC still jump?
Thanks DrollTide for posting this article!

 

[bamamoss2]

Since hearing this news, I've been thinking what others have alluded to in this thread: I don't see how this doesn't inevitably end with 2 24-team super-conferences (SEC & Big 10) being the whole of "major college football."

Then we probably get a pro-style structure to the postseason, with two teams in each conference battling it out for a conference championship and the winners playing each other in what would effectively be the College Super Bowl.

It's just going to be the NFL on Saturdays. The only question is how long does it take to get there.

Ditto!!!

 

[bamamoss2]

What would adding clempson, fsu and miami accomplish?

What would adding clempson, fsu and miami accomplish?

Since hearing this news, I've been thinking what others have alluded to in this thread: I don't see how this doesn't inevitably end with 2 24-team super-conferences (SEC & Big 10) being the whole of "major college football."

Then we probably get a pro-style structure to the postseason, with two teams in each conference battling it out for a conference championship and the winners playing each other in what would effectively be the College Super Bowl.

It's just going to be the NFL on Saturdays. The only question is how long does it take to get there.

What would adding clempson, fsu and miami accomplish?

Point well taken. After further review, I agree that North Carolina and Virginia are the most feasible targets for the SEC. As for clempson, fsu and miami coming in the picture; who else would you go for to kepp pace with the BIG? In my humble opinion, they will as good or better picking than the leftovers in the Big 12 and Pac 12.

 

[CajunCrimson]

So after reading this, according to our brain trust, Teams on the outside looking in

NC State
Ga Tech
Duke
Va Tech
BC
Syracuse
Kansas
Kansas State
Miami
FSU
Clemson
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Cal
Baylor
Iowa State
Houston
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Memphis
Cinci
SMU
TCU
Okie State

You could make two very nice conferences out of the scraps

 

[TideEngineer08]

So after reading this, according to our brain trust, Teams on the outside looking in

NC State
Ga Tech
Duke
Va Tech
BC
Syracuse
Kansas
Kansas State
Miami
FSU
Clemson
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Cal
Baylor
Iowa State
Houston
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Memphis
Cinci
SMU
TCU
Okie State

You could make two very nice conferences out of the scraps

Agreed. Most of them will survive in some way. Many of those programs have passionate fan bases.

I think circumstances may save a few of them from relegation, though. Duke for example (relationship with UNC and academic prestige), and every AAU school in that list has a decent chance, especially if not in the SEC’s current footprint, such as Pitt.

I’m a little let down this morning because it seems the SEC has been out flanked by the hapless Big Ten. But so much of that was built in from the get go due to relationships and bias forged nearly 100 years ago.

 

[81usaf92]

So after reading this, according to our brain trust, Teams on the outside looking in

NC State
Ga Tech
Duke
Va Tech
BC
Syracuse
Kansas
Kansas State
Miami
FSU
Clemson
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Cal
Baylor
Iowa State
Houston
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Memphis
Cinci
SMU
TCU
Okie State

You could make two very nice conferences out of the scraps

Washington is more or less B1G bound. The question is if they take Oregon or Arizona with them.

Florida St is probably going to get an offer by the SEC after the NC question is answered, but I highly doubt Miami gets an offer. Clemson is the biggest question on the "The Rest of yall train"

The Big XII most likely eats up everyone else, but aside from tournament sports they are effectively done with football. It will basically become a MWC and Big East merger

 

[Padreruf]

Never underestimate the arrogance of the ACC. They consider themselves the equal of the BIG10 and superior to the SEC. I am sure they are frantically trying to make moves to solidify their standing, including begging ND to come on in.

 

[CullmanTide]

Agreed. Most of them will survive in some way. Many of those programs have passionate fan bases.

I think circumstances may save a few of them from relegation, though. Duke for example (relationship with UNC and academic prestige), and every AAU school in that list has a decent chance, especially if not in the SEC’s current footprint, such as Pitt.

I’m a little let down this morning because it seems the SEC has been out flanked by the hapless Big Ten. But so much of that was built in from the get go due to relationships and bias forged nearly 100 years ago.

The SEC has one built in advantage, recruiting. Probably 70% of the top talent is from the south. If schools like Clemson, Florida St. and Miami aren't allowed in, their recruiting will suffer. That leaves more for the SEC.

 

[CullmanTide]

The SEC has got to stop thinking regional. Arizona St. is a bigger prize than some think. It's a large school in a state of over 7 million people.

 

[BamaMoon]

The SEC has got to stop thinking regional. Arizona St. is a bigger prize than some think. It's a large school in a state of over 7 million people.

NC is over 10 million and Virginia is over 8

I guess you could argue that the addition of Mizzu and ATM kinda got the SEC out of our traditional footprint. Now the addition of OU and Texas expands that a bit, but NC and Virginia schools would be nice jaunt a little further east and north. But Arizona?

 

[dtgreg]

I believe for the SEC the obvious move is North Carolina and Virginia. Pittsburgh actually does make alot of sense as well because you are putting the SEC in both the Pittsburgh and Cleveland markets.

I think the biggest thing is that these 3 probably don’t look good from a football standpoint but from a financial standpoint they are homers. Adding Clemson, FSU, and Miami is not going to have the effect people think. Out of the 3 FSU offers the most and probably is the one that Florida and Georgia may allow in. But Miami and Clemson are going to have extreme pushback from the members both in a financial and competitive recruiting standpoint. South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia would rather see them in FCS than the SEC. But you have to ask why even entertain those 3 potential teams?

Wonder if Clemson and Miami would get an offer from the Big10 just to compete directly in the SEC's markets?

 

[81usaf92]

Wonder if Clemson and Miami would get an offer from the Big10 just to compete directly in the SEC's markets?

Nope. There is only one team and one team only that the B1G will ever consider without an AAU membership. Neither Clemson or Miami are it. Yes Nebraska is no longer an AAU but they were when they joined.