Unemployment forecast for next 4 years if Obama wins.

BamaPokerplayer

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Oct 10, 2004
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The first thing I want to say is that I think we need to double the unemployment numbers to get a more accurate percentage of Americans that are unemployed, underemployed, part time etc…

X1 Unemployment Vertex, October 2009 = 20.4%
X2 Latest Unemployment, September 2012 = 15.6%
Y1 Time difference from X1 to X2 = 35 months
Y2 Time difference from X2 to December 2016 = 51

So if we keep up with our current rate of growth the numbers in January 2017 will be.

15.6-((20.4-15.6)/35)*51= 8.6057

Unemployment in January 2017 will be 8.6057%

If you believe the BLS we will be at full employment by January 2017.
8.6057/2 = 4.3029

It was reported that 12 million jobs will be created from 2012-2016 no matter who wins the race for the White House, which is what the U.S. would get if the economy was a “normal” U.S. economy. If that growth remained constant then we would gain 250,000 jobs per month even with that amount of growth, we will not be a full employment by the end of 2016.

If the U.S. wants to get unemployment at 5% by the end of 2016 we need to gain 368,000 jobs per month.
If we use BLS data we need 184,000 jobs per month

5% by the end of 2015 416,000 jobs per month.
BLS data 208,000 jobs per month

5% by the end of 2014, 508,000 jobs per month.
BLS data, 254,000 jobs per month

5% by the end of 2013 748,000 jobs per month.
BLS data 374,000 jobs per month

Note that Romney claimed that the U.S. would add 500,000 jobs per month if the U.S. were in a “normal” recovery. If Romney is right with his claim, and we hit “normal” recovery, then U.S. will be dominating again by the end of 2014. The bad new is if the U.S. adds 250,000 jobs per month it is going to take a long long time before we hit full employment.
 
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MDBSnare

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Those numbers are bull excrement.....No one knows for sure what they might become - other than if Hussein is re-"elected", in which case the numbers will grow to frightening levels. (BTW, "real" unemployment has come to be over 12%). Plus - this number will not get better for a loooooooooong time. Would you accept the same wage as a Bangladeshian? Wal-Mart will....
 

BamaPokerplayer

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Oct 10, 2004
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Those numbers are bull excrement.....No one knows for sure what they might become - other than if Hussein is re-"elected", in which case the numbers will grow to frightening levels. (BTW, "real" unemployment has come to be over 12%). Plus - this number will not get better for a loooooooooong time. Would you accept the same wage as a Bangladeshian? Wal-Mart will....
I put unemployment at 15.6% and said it would not get better for a long time. I don't see what your upset about?
 

skrayper77

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Sep 4, 2003
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It kind of defeats the purpose of using complex mathematics for your reasoning if, from the very start, you interject an opinion...

The first thing I want to say is that I think we need to double the unemployment numbers to get a more accurate percentage of Americans that are unemployed, underemployed, part time etc…
I'm not saying you're wrong, but that certainly makes your logic much more subjective than objective.
 

seebell

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It kind of defeats the purpose of using complex mathematics for your reasoning if, from the very start, you interject an opinion...



I'm not saying you're wrong, but that certainly makes your logic much more subjective than objective.
He is using Romney math to get what many have referred to as the "real unemployment level". OK for Mitt then OK for Player.


bamaphd@una

Those numbers are bull excrement.....No one knows for sure what they might become - other than if Hussein is re-"elected", in which case the numbers will grow to frightening levels. (BTW, "real" unemployment has come to be over 12%). Plus - this number will not get better for a loooooooooong time. Would you accept the same wage as a Bangladeshian? Wal-Mart will...
.
 

BamaPokerplayer

All-American
Oct 10, 2004
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It kind of defeats the purpose of using complex mathematics for your reasoning if, from the very start, you interject an opinion...



I'm not saying you're wrong, but that certainly makes your logic much more subjective than objective.
That's why I also gave BLS numbers. There is what I feel is true unemploment and also what Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the op. I gave readers the option of rejecting my numbers if they believed the BLS.
 

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