What's the truth? How good will we be? (predictions/merged)

[ncbama]

Look, folks, on this message board the word is everything from 8 wins to an undefeated season. However, and this is a big however, none of the major ranking entities are impressed. AP has us 26. Those rankings make me very nervous.
Some of us are biiiiig fans but may not be football savvy. Are we kidding ourselves? Are we delusional?
Time for a reality check. Exactly where should we be ranked? Would those of you who are "in the know" please take off your rose colored glasses and tell us what to expect.
Many, many thanks from a big fan but one who is certainly not "in the know."

 

[dabaxter]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

I would rank them at 25, but not any better on paper. I'd rather see Bama sneak up on folks.

 

[rtrcam]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

Last year, we began the season ranked about the same place we'll start this season.

 

[Bamafan in BGKY]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

The information is here for you to make an informed decision yourself. You can read the opinions and read Terry's reviews of the other teams, and then you can make a pretty good educated guess, because that's all it's going to be is a guess, no one can see the future, so until those games are played and the outcome is determined, there is no way to know. Given our non-conference schedule anywhere from 7 to 10 wins. Pretty safe bet right now! As long as the injury bug doesn't hit, if injuries come, all bets are off, we're still thin.

RTR

 

[runtheoption22]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

at first glance-- which is all the pollsters really do --yeah, we shouldn't be ranked anywhere near our #8 finish last year.

New Sophomore QB who has limited game time
Offensive line that has been plain offensive
Replacing seven starters on defense
Best playmaker isn't playing
Questions coming in around other best WRs
Hideous road schedule

Tell me that team should be ranked in the top 10.

However, those of us who know the program closely can share some optimism which the pollsters don't see.

JPW is more athletic and has a better pocket prescence than BC. He will make mistakes, but will make up for them. He has that psyche.

OL is improving-- though we couldn't go any other way-- and we will find the best five and back them up with the next best five.

Arguably the best running back stable in the SEC.

Freshmen and redshirt freshmen who will give us talented fresh legs.

Defense that might not be as experienced, but is faster than last years D.

A coach that has been given time and has earned a lot of respect amongst other coaches and his players.


Now, that doesn't gaurantee us anything. We've got to take care of business at home and steal a couple on the road. Honestly, barring injuries and catastrophic meltdown, I don't see worse than 8-4. A couple of breaks in one or two of the -villes......10-2 or better is a real possibility.

 

[TideFaninFl]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

1) Bama is coming off crippling sanctions that gutted the overall talent depth of the team for several years

2) Some recruits that would have normally gone to Bama went elsewhere, even when offered a scholarship due to and during the sanctions

3) Coach Shula and staff have been recruiting very well, filling in the needs of the team

4) Bama lost quite a bit of talent last year (senior talent), and has a majority of the talent (and numbers) as freshman or sophmore. That is not to say that the junior or senior class does not have talent, just the lack of numbers.

5) Given all that, it is a wait and see that the national media is doing. They know Bama has talent, a good to great coaching staff, and a tradition of doing well. They are just hedging their bet. Bama could be VERY good this year, or be average (due to the youth on the team)...... They all know Bama will be VERY good in 2007..........

 

[bamadoc94]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

If I knew I would be a rich man. I'll give you my two pennies anyway. Many of these so called experts and voters "phone it in" so to speak. The easy conclusion to draw is that the loss of seven starters on D and a new QB spells mediocre season for us. A step up in recruiting the last couple of years however has brought an influx of speed and talent. Since most of the media view Coach Shula as a below average and inexperienced coach, the assumption is that we have 5/6 wins on talent alone and a chance at seven or eight if we can win all our home games and maybe one on the road. The question is how much of last years success should be credited to the players and how much can be credited to the coaching staff and the systems they have put in place. If you are leaning toward the latter(coaching) then there is a reason to be optimistic. Several of the new starters will have been in the system for 2/3 years. In some cases there will be MORE talent on the field. With some strong leadership and a few breaks there's no reason the Tide couldn't win 8-10 games.The tough road schedule is really our biggest obstacle.

 

[NativeTider]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

at first glance-- which is all the pollsters really do --yeah, we shouldn't be ranked anywhere near our #8 finish last year.

New Sophomore QB who has limited game time
Offensive line that has been plain offensive
Replacing seven starters on defense
Best playmaker isn't playing
Questions coming in around other best WRs
Hideous road schedule

Tell me that team should be ranked in the top 10.

However, those of us who know the program closely can share some optimism which the pollsters don't see.

JPW is more athletic and has a better pocket prescence than BC. He will make mistakes, but will make up for them. He has that psyche.

OL is improving-- though we couldn't go any other way-- and we will find the best five and back them up with the next best five.

Arguably the best running back stable in the SEC.

Freshmen and redshirt freshmen who will give us talented fresh legs.

Defense that might not be as experienced, but is faster than last years D.

A coach that has been given time and has earned a lot of respect amongst other coaches and his players.


Now, that doesn't gaurantee us anything. We've got to take care of business at home and steal a couple on the road. Honestly, barring injuries and catastrophic meltdown, I don't see worse than 8-4. A couple of breaks in one or two of the -villes......10-2 or better is a real possibility.

Excellent points.

I would also add that we have three very winnable games to start the season to get younger more inexperienced players playing time and confidence. It also will allow us to determine our identity as a football team before we play the better teams on our schedule.

Don't underestimate the confidence and momentum which can manifest from starting the season 3-0.

 

[Crimson Hawk]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

We will surprise a lot of folks this year.......and I have absolutely NO intention of takin' off my CCG's!!! :biggrin2:

 

[ncbama]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

We will surprise a lot of folks this year.......and I have absolutely NO intention of takin' off my CCG's!!! :biggrin2:

I guess that's why I raised the question. I go into every game thinking we will win.
There is an old saying that "you yell with your heart but bet with your head." Unquestionably the heart of TideFans says NC, and that is as it should be. However, for just one parenthetical moment, I wanted to know what the head was saying. Thanks to you folks, especially RTO I am getting that.

 

[Braveheart]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

NC, there will be growing pains. I suspect the D is going to give up some big plays but you have to remember with that D last year, a lot of those guys had been playing together for three years and they knew each other well, understood their roles, almost always knew who was where on the field and who was supposed to do what. That's attributable to reps, reps and more reps in practice and just plain experience on the field.

On the other hand, many of these guys DID play some significant reps last year on D (Dukes, Jones, Castille) and should have a good idea of what they need to do. IMO, it's a matter of how fast they gell as a D AND how much of an improvement the offensive line achieves.

I suspect CMS has pounded into JPWs head that he doesn't have to put the team on his shoulders to win or be effective. I'd guess the strategy is for him to not make terrible mistakes, get the ball to his playmakers (Darby, McClain, Brown, Stover) and let them do the work.

If the D can gell (which I think they can and will, just a matter of "when), if the offensive line can be at least decent, I can see Bama realistically winning at least 8 games. With a break or two, maybe 10.

I think others have hit the nail on the head. The media (who most often know little or nothing about Bama) just see the stats and don't bother to dig a little deeper.

I don't have a problem being not ranked now. It's where you finish that counts.

 

[TerryP]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

I guess that's why I raised the question. I go into every game thinking we will win.
There is an old saying that "you yell with your heart but bet with your head." Unquestionably the heart of TideFans says NC, and that is as it should be. However, for just one parenthetical moment, I wanted to know what the head was saying. Thanks to you folks, especially RTO I am getting that.

That phrase almost describes where I stand. Back in Stallings' era, even when down in the 4th quarter I didn't feel we wouldn't win.

Now, each weekend I know we CAN win but I'm not in the comfort zone of knowing we WILL win.

We have a chance to repeat what we saw last year; and as much of a chance to do better or worse. It depends on "how the ball bounces." Last year, it bounced our way on a few occasions. Seems fitting, actually...considering it had bounced the other way consistantly in '05.

 

[Tidewater]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

I suspect CMS has pounded into JPWs head that he doesn't have to put the team on his shoulders to win or be effective.

I remember the last national championship year, when Barker, who didn't have the strongest arm, would normally go something like 6 for 10, 76 yards, no picks. He didn't have to win any games himself. He just had to not lose them (by making the dumb throw into triple coverage, etc.). And he was pretty darn good about not losing games.
Now JPW is more talented than Barker was, but as a sophomore, he would do well to remember that he doesn't have to win the games himself. He has a good supporting staff (e.g. KD, etc.), so, as long as he doesn't dig a big hole for them to run out of (by making the dumb throw), this offense will do just fine.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

The two biggest factors (IMO) will be the OL and JPW. I think the OL has already shown signs that they will be better and JPW is continuing to get his reps as the starter.

I don't see CMS just turning JPW loose and letting him fling it around. I think he will gradually give JPW more "slack in the leash" as his game experience increases. If we can get a decent OL and get JPW to "manage" the game you can all but nail down nine wins.

But, JPW is not the kind of qb that you want to always let "manage" a game. He's got very good physical talents and once he gets experience and comfortable with the gameday atmosphere then by all means take the training wheels off and let the boy ride.

 

[TiderinMiss]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

You want a reality check?

No one really knows 100% as to what any team is going to do in college foootball.

They're just best-guess estimations, for Christ's sake.

Want to really enjoy college football and Bama football?

Let each week take care of itself. Enjoy each game as it comes, because it will be January before you know it.

Pollls are not an exact science. They are based on stats and human emotions.

To quote my college professor who taught me public relations:

"There are lies, there are damned lies, and then there are statistics."

I could care less about the stupid polls. I quit caring after they ranked Bama #3 pre-season in 2000. Polls do not factor in injuries, in-fighting, and other turmoil.

Again, let each week take care of itself. The last poll is all that matters.

 

[TiderinMiss]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

Hey, Bamabuzzard...your signature applies to this thread:


"The existence of God isn't determined in the thoughts of man. God exist, no matter what man thinks."

I think Bama football is the same way. Bama football exists no matter what the polls say.

 

[imauafan]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

I'm more optimistic about this year than I have been in several years. I think we have more talent than any team since 1999 although we are still lacking a bit in the experience department but that will take care of itself after a couple of games. The folks that get to watch practice seem to be very confident about the team. It was either Chris Stewart or David Crane that said the first scrimmage was the most polished he has seen at Bama in several years. We're scrimmaging longer because we finally have a 3rd and 4th string that is worthy of the extra work. We're hearing about big plays from several different players. We all know what Darby, McClain, Castille, etc. can do and its exciting to hear about Grant. Cecil Hurt wrote that Grant's performance the other day was the second best performance in a practice by a freshman that he had personally witnessed since David Palmer in 1991. We have the luxury of moving a good DL over to the OL and still have plenty of good DL. Our OL has enough depth that we will almost certainly redshirt all of the freshmen OL except for Andre Smith. Andre sounds like he will start at LT from day one. Barring injury he should be a great one before his career at Bama is over. We do have some weakpoints but those aren't as drastic as they have been in recent years. I'm concerned about the MLB position but I think Prince Hall is the long term answer and that he will be great there. I'm also concerned about the depth at OLB but Schreiber seems to be stepping up and hopefully Anders will as well. All these things add up to us having a better team than we did last year. We may not have the kind of year like we did last year because the schedule is more difficult, the ball may bounce differently a few times, etc. but I think we are on the brink of being back where we belong and this *COULD* be the year we make some noise on the national level.

BTW, Barker's arm was very strong. I would say that only Brodie had a stronger arm than Barker over the past 15 years. Barker was not a great throwing QB (although Homer Smith helped him tremendously in 1994) so I think people have the perception that Barkers arm was not that strong but in reality it was very strong.

 

[bamandenver]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

I think it depends on injuries. We're still very thin in 3 areas:
OLB - Simpson & Jones
DT - Clark, Lee, Adams
QB - JPW

The loss of any of these players (especially JPW) will have an impact on the # of W's.

IFwe get through the year without injuries I think we can get 9-10 wins.

I think the O will be better this year - better OL, deep at WR (still miss Pro but...), no need to comment on RB, and I think JPW will get better w/ experience. Plus I see the TE's being a part of the system for the first time. All around I think a more balanced O than past 3 yrs.

I think D has a very good chance to be strong - We lost 7 starters but we have several new starters with significant game experience - Slim and Dukes at DB, Collins & Jones at LB and Harris and Greenwood at DE.

We'll just have to wait and see...

 

[bamacpa]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

I think we win all 4 non-conference games, plus the Mississippi schools and Vandy. I think Auburn and LSU are more talented than us, Florida and UThug are about the same level as us, and Arkansas is not as talented, but more experienced.

Start with the 7 wins, throw in a win at Knoxville because we have better coaching, assume a loss in Hawgland because of youthful mistakes, and perhaps a loss in the Swamp, and we square off against LSU and da Barn with 8 wins already booked. If the OL progresses, I think we can take Auburn, leaving us with 9 wins.

Bottom line, I expect 8 or 9 wins barring any unforeseen disasters. I think our youth will cost us 1 game we should have otherwise won. But I do feel good that IMO only 2 teams on our schedule are more talented than us.

 

[Ark-Tider]

Re: What's the truth? How good will we be?

Sep 2 Hawaii W 27-13
Sep 9 Vanderbilt* W 24-10
Sep 16 Louisiana-Monroe W 38-7
Sep 23 Arkansas* W 20-17
Sep 30 Florida* L 31-17
Oct 7 Duke W 35-14
Oct 14 Ole Miss* W 24-17
Oct 21 Tennessee* W 18-16
Oct. 28 Florida Intenational W 28-10
Nov 4 Mississippi State* W 27-14
Nov 11 LSU* L 24-14
Nov 18 Auburn* W 27-17

10-2