What’s your dream playoff scenario?

RT27

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I want OSU first, rip em a new one, then Notre Dame and get repeat of 2012 and show they still do not belong in top ten until they play some real teams in regular season. 18th title and another trophy in the case.
 

KrAzY3

Hall of Fame
Jan 18, 2006
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I know this isn't a direct response to the question, but I wanted to calculate a visual representation of how SoS and the number of games might favor or hinder particular teams. SoS is harder to calculate given the scheduling this season, but it does become more accurate as the season progresses. A SoS ranking can still become kind of fixated on a conference and favor them, so keep that in mind. This isn't meant to say a particular team is better just parse the data a bit.

So, a lazy way of calculating this is just to say take the number of wins-losses, add a decimal point to their SoS and divide by that. The problem there is it skews too heavily towards high SoS teams, so I'm adding a 100 to the total. In this cases the range will go from 110 to 188. Obviously there are better ways of doing this calculation but I'm lazy. I am only listing teams in the playoff discussion, Georgia would do quite in this ranking due to SoS which honestly I'm not weighting properly.

Here are the Sagarin SoS rankings and this calculation listed as a score. I've ranked them accordingly

#1 Alabama SoS 10 Score 90
#2 Notre Dame SoS 54 Score 64
#3 Texas A&M SoS 12 Score 53
#4 Clemson SoS 57 Score 50
#5 Florida SoS 25 Score 48
#6 Iowa State SoS 34 Score 44
#7 Cincinnati SoS 88 Score 42
#8 Ohio State SoS 41 Score 35

To clarify, I did not peak ahead at the results. I had an inkling of how they'd come out but this isn't something I adjusted to get what I want. I kind of like these rankings. I feel like it does a decent job of giving a visual representation of how difficulty could factor into the rankings. If the committee really was sitting in their room using SoS as a major factor, their rankings would look much more like this than they actually do.
 

B1GTide

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Apr 13, 2012
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I know this isn't a direct response to the question, but I wanted to calculate a visual representation of how SoS and the number of games might favor or hinder particular teams. SoS is harder to calculate given the scheduling this season, but it does become more accurate as the season progresses. A SoS ranking can still become kind of fixated on a conference and favor them, so keep that in mind. This isn't meant to say a particular team is better just parse the data a bit.

So, a lazy way of calculating this is just to say take the number of wins-losses, add a decimal point to their SoS and divide by that. The problem there is it skews too heavily towards high SoS teams, so I'm adding a 100 to the total. In this cases the range will go from 110 to 188. Obviously there are better ways of doing this calculation but I'm lazy. I am only listing teams in the playoff discussion, Georgia would do quite in this ranking due to SoS which honestly I'm not weighting properly.

Here are the Sagarin SoS rankings and this calculation listed as a score. I've ranked them accordingly

#1 Alabama SoS 10 Score 90
#2 Notre Dame SoS 54 Score 64
#3 Texas A&M SoS 12 Score 53
#4 Clemson SoS 57 Score 50
#5 Florida SoS 25 Score 48
#6 Iowa State SoS 34 Score 44
#7 Cincinnati SoS 88 Score 42
#8 Ohio State SoS 41 Score 35

To clarify, I did not peak ahead at the results. I had an inkling of how they'd come out but this isn't something I adjusted to get what I want. I kind of like these rankings. I feel like it does a decent job of giving a visual representation of how difficulty could factor into the rankings. If the committee really was sitting in their room using SoS as a major factor, their rankings would look much more like this than they actually do.
You really can't use any Sagarin formulas this year as they all heavily rely upon inter-conference play. Within a conference, the formulas are still legit this year, but it is garbage when comparing anything across conferences.

So, this is a legit measure in most years, but it is not this year as there has been no cross play.
 

KrAzY3

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You really can't use any Sagarin formulas this year as they all heavily rely upon inter-conference play. Within a conference, the formulas are still legit this year, but it is garbage when comparing anything across conferences.

So, this is a legit measure in most years, but it is not this year as there has been no cross play.
I've followed it and it really did sort itself out better than I would have expected. Which ranking in particular would I pick to take exception to? I mean we know ACC plays a fairly easy schedule right? We know Ohio State only played one good team so far, we know Cincy hasn't really played much of a schedule. If I was just going to formulate my own SoS it would be pretty close to this.

Edit: I'd add that I think what you said is generally a fair point but the rankings which were heavily skewed earlier make a lot of sense to me now.
 
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CullmanTide

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Jan 7, 2008
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ND beats Clemson again in the ACC championship. ND is in, Clemson is out. OSU wets the bed against Northwestern so BIG is out. aTm beats Tennessee so they're obviously in. Committee scrambles to find a fourth. They decide this is the year to punch the ticket for a lower tier school, so Cincinnati is in. The line-up:
Alabama
ND
aTm
Cincinnati
If that happened, I could live with that.
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
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Plano, TX
I guess I wasn't paying attention but somehow ESPN is saying USC has the 4th highest % chance to get into the playoff.

That's news to me, but, if it's true I'd LOVE for us to draw them cause I think we'd skull drag them.

Then I'd hope Clemson/ND vs. Oh. State would be a knock down drag out that left the winner barely standing on one leg.

BAMA > than that team = another NC
 

CHATTBRIT

Hall of Fame
Dec 3, 2003
5,651
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I have a problem with OSU getting in on reputation alone. They've only played 5 games against poor Big 10 opposition. Bama played 9 games against all SEC competition and still have the SEC Championship game to play. Clemson and ND also played as full a schedule as has been possible. So along comes OSU with their unforms barely dirty, and well rested , coming against 3 teams which have had to play double the number of games.
 
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selmaborntidefan

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And if you ever doubted East Coast bias is true.....explain how in the world we can be told ALL ABOUT Ohio State but not one damned word about USC.....

I'm not saying that USC should even be there or that they would beat Ohio State; but this is ENTIRELY a REPUTATION-based discussion at this point. If this were 2006 - and Alabama was suddenly 6-0 and the others played more - the Tide would be searching for respect.
 
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Padreruf

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Feb 12, 2001
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And if you ever doubted East Coast bias is true.....explain how in the world we can be told ALL ABOUT Ohio State but not one damned word about USC.....

I'm not saying that USC should even be there or that they would beat Ohio State; but this is ENTIRELY a REPUTATION-based discussion at this point. If this were 2006 - and Alabama was suddenly 6-0 and the others played more - the Tide would be searching for respect.
USC's record shocked me when I saw it...why are they not the equal of OSU?
 
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UntouchableCrew

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Nov 30, 2015
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I think we crush whoever the 4th seed is so I'd like to see some fresh blood in there.

Iowa State hasn't won a conference title since 1912 -- it would be pretty cool if they won the Big XII and snuck in after a little chaos.
 

UntouchableCrew

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And if you ever doubted East Coast bias is true.....explain how in the world we can be told ALL ABOUT Ohio State but not one damned word about USC.....

I'm not saying that USC should even be there or that they would beat Ohio State; but this is ENTIRELY a REPUTATION-based discussion at this point. If this were 2006 - and Alabama was suddenly 6-0 and the others played more - the Tide would be searching for respect.
This is true -- but I'd argue it's always true when it comes to these rankings. Reputation, previous years performance, recruiting rankings, etc. always factor into the perceptions of teams, even if subconsciously.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Four all beef patties, 6 feet under: the McCPR
I think we crush whoever the 4th seed is so I'd like to see some fresh blood in there.

Iowa State hasn't won a conference title since 1912 -- it would be pretty cool if they won the Big XII and snuck in after a little chaos.
One of my longtime friends is an ISU grad. Remembers getting skull drug by Nebraska every single year. She's been watching all our games since 2013 and become a Tide fan.

She is practically praying (and fasting) for ISU to get into the playoff - and says she knows full well we'd have to hold back to not score 70 points on the Cyclones. I know a couple of more of those grads, and they're just HOPEFUL for a little conference title.
\
 
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selmaborntidefan

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USC's record shocked me when I saw it...why are they not the equal of OSU?
Well, it's because:
a) they play on the West Coast and their games start late (usually)
b) they've never made the playoff
c) they haven't even REALLY - in the real sense of the word - CONTENDED for more than a decade now
d) Ohio State has been on the apron of the national scene for most of the last 2 decades, right there
e) the cold hard reality that the pundits don't actually watch West Coast games until late in the year beecause
f) they play on the West Coast and their games start late (usually)

Now hear me - I'm NOT saying USC is equal to Ohio St; I DON'T KNOW!! I'd be spouting ignorance.

But it's not really that much different than the fact that IF OKLAHOMA beats Iowa St, you will suddenly hear THEM as a contender.....but Iowa State, who has ALREADY BEATEN OU....is not "because they have two losses".

You know - just like Oklahoma. And that's what makes this whole thing a pile of nonsense. It's amazing to me that Iowa St is SO AWFUL that if they beat OU, well, we can't let them in but....if OU beats Iowa St (who - again - is supposedly so awful)....it's a big win.

Getting back to USC, I suspect Joel Klatt or another guy from outside the South will be on their bandwagon by next Saturday evening.
 
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81usaf92

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Apr 26, 2008
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Well, it's because:
a) they play on the West Coast and their games start late (usually)
b) they've never made the playoff
c) they haven't even REALLY - in the real sense of the word - CONTENDED for more than a decade now
d) Ohio State has been on the apron of the national scene for most of the last 2 decades, right there
e) the cold hard reality that the pundits don't actually watch West Coast games until late in the year beecause
f) they play on the West Coast and their games start late (usually)

Now hear me - I'm NOT saying USC is equal to Ohio St; I DON'T KNOW!! I'd be spouting ignorance.

But it's not really that much different than the fact that IF OKLAHOMA beats Iowa St, you will suddenly hear THEM as a contender.....but Iowa State, who has ALREADY BEATEN OU....is not "because they have two losses".

You know - just like Oklahoma. And that's what makes this whole thing a pile of nonsense. It's amazing to me that Iowa St is SO AWFUL that if they beat OU, well, we can't let them in but....if OU beats Iowa St (who - again - is supposedly so awful)....it's a big win.

Getting back to USC, I suspect Joel Klatt or another guy from outside the South will be on their bandwagon by next Saturday evening.
There is one famous beat writer who is often on Around the Horn from SC that will always write some “what about us” crap. He is the guy that wrote USC is not on the same level as Bama article in 2016. I can’t remember his name but the dude is pretty famous
 

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