Poll: Which of these win/loss scenarios do you prefer?

[81usaf92]

How many times in the BCS and playoff eras have you seen a REAL upset?

in major games, regular season, or BCS\ playoffs?

 

[selmaborntidefan]

How many times in the BCS and playoff eras have you seen a REAL upset?

2011 - Iowa State over Okie State

That was the night the Pokes led, 24-7, in the third quarter and all fell into a collective depression at one time over two dead b-ball coaches none of the players knew and then tried to say that's why they lost.

OSU lost because:
a) they gave up 568 yards
b) they turned the ball over 5 times

 

[selmaborntidefan]

#1 v #2 is not an upset.

It kinda is - because the #1 team that loses leaves the field very.....upset.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Would you rather have 3 heartbreaking losses to Texas, ATM, and Ole Miss, and wins over Tennessee and LSU? Or do you prefer our current 8-2 record? You can’t choose 10-0 nor 9-1.

I know it defies logic to want a worse win/loss record, but we all know that some teams are more fun to beat than others. If you had the ability to choose, would you sacrifice one or more wins over a lesser rival to win a game that has more pride on the line?

This is like asking me if I want my body parts removed by a Doberman or an angry husband.

IT'S THE SAME THING!!!!

 

[BigAlinKnoxville]

Every team added to the playoff dilutes it.

Look at the Phillies and baseball this year for Pete's sake.



That's not really a fair comparison, though.

Why?

Because it treats PRESEASON polls the same as polls from, say, November 10 onward as equal - and they're not.

App St beat #5 Michigan in the 2007 opener.
James Madison beat #13 Va Tech in Sept 2010

I will guarantee you there are FEWER of these after we've actually seen the teams play.
That's important - because the selection is made AFTER games are played.




Not if you count September games, no.



You've got me there.

Every time some team gets shown to be not to so good, it becomes "Team X was overrated" (passive voice).

Never once does a pundit own up and say, "WE overrated them." But these rankings don't fall down from out of the sky out of nowhere, either.



The more CFB becomes like the NFL, the less people will care.

Because then the fact it's minor league football is revealed.
It was different when 20 or so teams could end the year on a high note with a trip somewhere.

Okay. All good points. I retrospect, I probably am thinking more about early season upsets of teams that didn't really deserve their ranking.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

LATE SEASON UPSETS OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD

Unranked vs top 10 teams only
Game must be played after Halloween

1980 - Miss St vs #1 Alabama
1980 - Ga Tech vs #1 Notre Dame (okay, it was a TIE....but Tech went 1-9-1 that year)
1982 - Washington St vs #5 Washington (who would have gone to the Rose Bowl)
2007 - Illinois vs #1 Ohio State (yes, the Illini wound up ranked but still.....)
2007 - Texas Tech vs #3 Oklahoma
2007 - Arizona vs #2 Oregon
2007 - Pitt vs #2 WVA
2011 - Iowa St vs #2 Oklahoma St
2012 - Baylor vs #1 Kansas St
2016 - Pitt vs #2 Clemson
2017 - Iowa vs #6 Ohio St

I'm sure I'll think of others in a bit

 

[81usaf92]

LATE SEASON UPSETS OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD

Unranked vs top 10 teams only
Game must be played after Halloween

1980 - Miss St vs #1 Alabama
1980 - Ga Tech vs #1 Notre Dame (okay, it was a TIE....but Tech went 1-9-1 that year)
1982 - Washington St vs #5 Washington (who would have gone to the Rose Bowl)
2007 - Illinois vs #1 Ohio State (yes, the Illini wound up ranked but still.....)
2007 - Texas Tech vs #3 Oklahoma
2007 - Arizona vs #2 Oregon
2007 - Pitt vs #2 WVA
2011 - Iowa St vs #2 Oklahoma St
2012 - Baylor vs #1 Kansas St
2016 - Pitt vs #2 Clemson
2017 - Iowa vs #6 Ohio St

I'm sure I'll think of others in a bit

was USC ranked when Kiffin beat Oregon.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

was USC ranked when Kiffin beat Oregon.

Yes they were 18 I believe.

 

[TopBamaBloke]

This is like asking me if I want my body parts removed by a Doberman or an angry husband.

IT'S THE SAME THING!!!!

Except one has a win over an important rival and the other doesn’t.

LATE SEASON UPSETS OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD

Unranked vs top 10 teams only
Game must be played after Halloween

1980 - Miss St vs #1 Alabama
1980 - Ga Tech vs #1 Notre Dame (okay, it was a TIE....but Tech went 1-9-1 that year)
1982 - Washington St vs #5 Washington (who would have gone to the Rose Bowl)
2007 - Illinois vs #1 Ohio State (yes, the Illini wound up ranked but still.....)
2007 - Texas Tech vs #3 Oklahoma
2007 - Arizona vs #2 Oregon
2007 - Pitt vs #2 WVA
2011 - Iowa St vs #2 Oklahoma St
2012 - Baylor vs #1 Kansas St
2016 - Pitt vs #2 Clemson
2017 - Iowa vs #6 Ohio St

I'm sure I'll think of others in a bit

Another one to add to your list would be Tennessee vs. Memphis in 1996. That game and Shaun Alexander’s school rushing record vs. Lsu gave us a fun weekend of college football!

 

[theballguy]

This is the culture CNS created. Love it or hate it. It is what it is.

Agreed. I wouldn't have it any other way.

To be miserable maybe 2 seasons? But in the hunt for a NC the rest of the time? I'll take it. Much better than LSU, Georgia and especially Tennessee has had to deal with over the same amount of time.

 

[BigAlinKnoxville]

Another one to add to your list would be Tennessee vs. Memphis in 1996.

Yep. Memphis beat them in their (UT's) homecoming game, with none other than Peyton Manning at QB.

 

[TopBamaBloke]

Yep. Memphis beat them in their (UT's) homecoming game, with none other than Peyton Manning at QB.

It was played at the Liberty Bowl. It might just be my favorite vomiteer football moment not involving us beating them!

 

[selmaborntidefan]

LATE SEASON UPSETS (OR TIES) OF TOP 10 TEAMS 1980-89

1) Unranked vs top 10 teams only
2) Starts with November polls ONLY
3) Excluding bowls, which have long prep time and other issues

REMINDER: ONLY 20 teams were ranked back then.....

1980 - Miss St vs #1 Alabama
1980 - Ga Tech vs #1 Notre Dame (okay, it was a TIE....but Tech went 1-9-1 that year)

1981 - Houston vs #5 Texas (TIE)
1981 - Louisville vs #9 Southern Miss

1982 - Notre Dame vs #1 Pitt
1982 - Baylor vs #5 Arkansas
1982 - Miss St vs #6 LSU (the week after LSU beat Alabama first time since 1971)
1982 - Washington St vs #5 Washington (who would have gone to the Rose Bowl)
1982 - Tulane vs #7 LSU (beat Alabama, lost to MSU, beat #7 FSU, lost to Tulane - go figure)
1982 - Arizona vs #8 Arizona St

1984 - Penn St vs #9 Boston College
1984 - Houston vs #3 Texas
1984 - Maryland vs #6 Miami
1984 - Navy vs #2 South Carolina
1984 - Miss St vs #9 LSU
1984 - Baylor vs #6 Texas

1985 - Illinois vs #4 Michigan (TIE)
1985 - Wisconsin vs #3 Ohio St
1985 - Iowa St vs #7 Oklahoma St (in Ames but no basketball coaches killed.....)
1985 - USC vs #8 UCLA
1985 - Alabama vs #7 Auburn

1986 - Florida vs #5 Auburn
1986 - Baylor vs #10 Arkansas
1986 - Minnesota vs #2 Michigan

1987 - USC vs #5 UCLA

1988 - Washington St vs #1 UCLA
1988 - Houston vs #10 Wyoming

1989 -UCLA vs #8 USC

BY YEAR
1980 - 2
1981 - 2
1982 - 6
1983 - 0
1984 - 6
1985 - 5
1986 - 3
1987 - 1
1988 - 2
1989 - 1

TOTAL: 28

#1 Teams Beaten - 4
2-5 Beaten - 11
6-10 Beaten - 13

Observations:
1) All 3 #1 teams that were upset (with losses) happened the first week of November.
2) The #1 team tied (1980 Irish) was the second week of November.

Teams ranked that lost (or tied)
1 - 4
2 - 2
3 - 2
4 - 1
5 - 5
6 - 3
7 - 3
8 - 3
9 - 3
10 - 2


There are no ties now - and both ties involved teams in the top two.
That means seven of the losses were in the top four...and 19 were spots 5 through 10.

Immediate objection - "yeah, because there's more teams in slots 5-10, so there's more chances to lose."

I'll do the next decades in the coming days; but what this did in most cases was substantiate the polls from November 15 onward as almost infallible, too.

(Note: we all knew in 1984 that S Carolina was overrated, but the pollsters had little choice. It was one of those years like 2001 or 2007 where a bunch of upsets caused the issue).

Same with Wyoming in 1988.

 

[BloodyTusk]

Every team added to the playoff dilutes it.

Look at the Phillies and baseball this year for Pete's sake.



That's not really a fair comparison, though.

Why?

Because it treats PRESEASON polls the same as polls from, say, November 10 onward as equal - and they're not.

App St beat #5 Michigan in the 2007 opener.
James Madison beat #13 Va Tech in Sept 2010

I will guarantee you there are FEWER of these after we've actually seen the teams play.
That's important - because the selection is made AFTER games are played.




Not if you count September games, no.



You've got me there.

Every time some team gets shown to be not to so good, it becomes "Team X was overrated" (passive voice).

Never once does a pundit own up and say, "WE overrated them." But these rankings don't fall down from out of the sky out of nowhere, either.



The more CFB becomes like the NFL, the less people will care.

Because then the fact it's minor league football is revealed.
It was different when 20 or so teams could end the year on a high note with a trip somewhere.

That's right!!! 12 teams dilutes the playoffs. This isn't basketball. I bet teams #7 through #12 will NEVER win the national title. I absolutely HATE the idea of a 12 team playoff!!!! Never in my life have i thought the #7-#12 teams were championship caliber teams. Never! If i had the power, I would say 6 teams in the playoffs and #1 & #2 get a bye week.
I'm not looking forward to a 12 team playoff. Barf. Just watch there will be more fatigue injuries & multiple boring blowouts. Alabama was absolutely worn out after 8 straight games, before their "bye." The last 2 teams standing will have to play 19 games!!!!!...., unless they didn't play in a conference championship game! I see a lot more injuries. Just my opinion though....

 

[gtowntide]

Stupid survey.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

LATE SEASON UPSETS (OR TIES) OF TOP 10 TEAMS 1990-99
Note: AP poll only before 1998, BCS in 1998/99

1) Unranked vs top 10 teams only
2) Starts with November polls ONLY
3) Excluding bowls, which have long prep time and other issues
4) Reminder that ties ended after the 1995 season

1990 - UCLA vs #1 Washington
1990 - Maryland vs #8 Virginia
1990 - Oklahoma vs #10 Nebraska

1992 - Illinois vs #3 Michigan (TIE)
1992 - Iowa St vs #7 Nebraska

1993 - LSU vs #5 Alabama
1993 - Arizona St vs #10 UCLA
1993 - Michigan vs #5 Ohio St

1994 - New Mexico vs #9 Utah
1994 - Georgia vs #3 Auburn (TIE)

1995 - Michigan St vs #7 Michigan

1996 - Memphis vs #6 Tennessee
1996 - Purdue vs #9 Michigan
1996 - Miss St vs #6 Alabama

1997 - Oregon vs #6 Washington
1997 - Michigan St vs #4 Penn State

1998 - Miss St vs #9 Arkansas
1998 - Michigan St vs #1 Ohio State
1998 - Texas vs #6 Texas A/M

1999 - Minnesota vs #2 Penn State
1999 - Virginia vs #7 Georgia Tech
1999 - Arkansas vs #3 Tennessee


BY YEAR
1990 - 3
1991 - 0
1992 - 2
1993 - 3
1994 - 2
1995 - 1
1996 - 3
1997 - 2
1998 - 3
1999 - 3

TOTAL: 22

#1 Teams Beaten - 2
2-5 Beaten - 7
6-10 Beaten - 13

Observations:
1) The immediate suspicion - especially by pundits - is to say, "Hey, it dropped from 28 in the 80s to 22 in the 90s, so the pollsters IMPROVED. WRONG!!!

It dropped because:
a) the elimination of ties prevents those from being counted - three ties in the 80s, two in the 90s
b) the rankings expanded from 20 to 25 with the 1989 season, meaning any teams in the 21-25 range suddenly didn't count as "unranked" upsets.
c) conference expansion (SEC to 12 in 1992, Big 8 to 12 in 1996, creation of Big East) REDUCED the number of out of conference games with also-rans in November/December. The SEC went from six conference games in 1987 to eight in 1992 (expanding to 7 from 1988-91) while the Big 10 not only went from 9 to eight, they added Penn State.

Off the top of my head, 1992 UW vs Wazzu and 1996 Michigan vs Ohio State would have been in the 80s least because the winning teams were ranked between 21 and 25...which would increase the number here.

2) In short, we're learning the polls are LARGELY accurate though far from infallible, which is the best you can hope to achieve.


Teams ranked that lost (or tied)
1 - 2
2 - 1
3 - 3
4 - 1
5 - 2
6 - 4
7 - 3
8 - 1
9 - 3
10 - 2

1990 Virginia and 1994 Utah were known to be paper tigers - and it was suspected of 1994 Auburn, who needed three pick sixes in the final 11 minutes (5 picks overall) to escape and LSU team that beat them up and down the field nearly all day long.