Why I believe we will win

AlabamaBEN11

Scout Team
May 8, 2020
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127
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I've been nerding out pretty hard over this. Sometimes it's just hard to put things into words. Gut feeling? Intuition? You just know... these are the things I feel. Let me explain why.

In 2021 Georgia was allowing 9.5 points per game going into the SECCG. I believe Alabama (the underdog in that game) hung 42 on them. Now that was then and this is now but what's it matter?

Well for me, just as a reminder that maybe despite the narrative we can do better than expected. Now it's true - we no longer have Bryce Young and are no longer the nations #2 offense (per 2021) HOWEVER - Georgia is also no longer only allowing 9.5 points per game. So their defense has regressed as has our offense. I consider than a push (that favors us).

Now looking at their offense. They are the number 6 in the nation. We already stopped the most lethal (LSU) offense. That said, Georgia is more balanced which I believe presents more of a challenger. HOWEVER - they don't have Jayden Daniels that we have to watch out for.

Stats can lie - Alabamas offense ranks fairly low. We're 49. Guess who is number 7? North Texas Mean Green. Guess whos number 10? Texas State Bobcats. Those teams wouldn't do jack against us.

So what's my point? Alabama has spent all season growing, improving, from the OLine to Jalen Milroe. We are far better than the nations 49th ranked offense. Georgia has had a slightly easier schedule (though we share 3 opponents).

Also - when looking at pass rusher stats Georgia doesnt have a single player in the top 75. Let me say that again. GEORGIA DOESNT HAVE A SINGLE PLAYER IN THE TOP 75 for pass rush. Alabama has THREE. If we can contain and pressure Beck we have a chance. If Milroe has time to throw - he's dangerous. Georgia has struggled with QBs that run. We have that too. Our secondary has Moore, KoolAide, Downs, Arnold...we're good.

I'm throwing a lot of jibbger jabber at you but heres the summary (TDLR) - Stats lie. The teams are much closer than what paper will show. Georgia has looked better against common opponents (Tennesee & Ole Miss) but aside from Ole Miss (who we were still learning who we were and Milroe was coming off being benched) it's about even.

I think Alabama has a very real and fair shot. Georgia has struggled to contain QBs that run and we have that.

I told my wife the other nights - If this game was played 10 times. Alabama would win half I bet. At best 6 and at worst 4 games of 10. It's like reaching in a bag of 10 marbles.. Which one will we get?

Don't count out Nick Saban. His ability to scheme. Plan. Motivate. He is the GOAT.

Sorry for the rant. This was meant to be organized and efficient but I just started typing and got carried away. You get my point and if you don't... I do !
 
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