Of course not. I doubt if he would have 7 titles at Army, for example, if he spent his career there. But he wouldn’t necessarily be any less of a coach. The real question is whether he would be better at any given school than anyone else would be under the same circumstances at the same school.I have no doubt he could have replicated the same success at certain P5 programs. But personally, I don't think he would have won 6 titles at just any P5 program. But thank goodness the world will never know.
Would Saban be GOAT if anywhere but Alabama?
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Not to confuse things, but how many championships might Rockne have won if not for that plane crash when he was only 43 years old?
But that subjectivity is backed by sufficient data, too.
Saban would've probably become the GOAT at other schools, but if he hadn't come to Bama it would've been up for debate. Matching his relentless drive, brilliance, and clout with a program where DuBose won an SEC title (despite losing to LA Tech that year) and Shula and Fran each notched 10-win seasons has led to a run of success that may never be equalled. I personally think it's the perfect combination of man and place.
I would add a few more to your question.
Ara Parseghian retired when he was my age (51 years old). The seniors on his last team stole one from us (1977), and he lost another one in the final 90 seconds in 1964 (this again is CFB in equilibrium - he stole one in 66 and basically helped give us one in 64). It's likely he wins another 2 or so.
Bob Devaney won two national titles at Nebraska and handed off a monster to Tom Osborne. He was 58 years old when he tried, admittedly much older in 1972 than it is nowadays. In his last 3 years there, Devaney won 2 titles and his back won a Heisman. The Huskers went 42-3-2 in his final 47 games in Lincoln - those are damn near Saban-level numbers.
Bud Wilkinson won 3 national championships at Oklahoma and had that record 47-game winning streak - and retired when he was 47 years old. Keep in mind that Bryant won his first title at 48, Saban won his at 52, and Osborne won his first at 57.
John McKay won 4 national championships and then went to coach the new franchise Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1976 when he was 52 years old. Given that his seniors at USC won the 78 title and the first class after he left finished unbeaten (with a tie), it's not unreasonable to think McKay would have won at least 6 national championships himself.
Well....maybe.
It depends on where he went and did this.
If he had stayed at LSU and done this magic act, it would be next world unbelievable. Pulling it off at, say, Florida, not so much.
Pulling it off at Auburn (which as I noted earlier is at least in the land of theoretically possible)........we'd be like some of them are about "he's paying players!"
The data that support Saban:
1) His ACTUAL (as opposed to "the NCAA took five wins away") on field percentage is .7996 (in other words, .800).
That is 13th all-time among coaches who were PRIMARILY FBS/Division I coaches - and Saban has coached more games than the other 12, which is more opportunities for failure. Given that: a) losses drop your pct more than wins raise it if you're good; and b) Saban is actually past what should be his prime achievement years - this is an incredible statistic.
The guys ahead of him on the list in winning pct? Rockne, Leahy, Urban Meyer, Switzer, Osborne, Fielding Yost, Neyland, Wilkinson, Dabo, Devaney, Stoops, Chris Petersen
Keep in mind Saban has coached TWO HUNDRED MORE GAMES than Rockne and Leahy and over 150 more games than Dabo or Wilkinson.
2) He has coached in what is indisputably the most competitive era of college football.
Hard core reality whether people like it or not - the overall quality of ALL SPORTS have increased dramatically in the past century as sports have become more organized. Olympic records of long ago are now routinely accomplished in high school in some cases. Training regimens, supplements, medical care, and strategies have altered sports to such a point that the modern era in any sport is ALMOST always the most competitive. Not to knock Knute Rockne in any way - but there's no way in hell that he could coach Notre Dame NOWADAYS and win 88% of his games.
3) He has also coached in what is (okay) arguably the most competitive conference in football for most of his career.
This is not Urban Meyer running up his winning pct by going 22-2 at Utah (not that Meyer is not also a fantastic coach). It's not Bob Reade staying in Division III Augustana and winning 86% of his games and 4 national titles at the low level or Frank Leahy largely benefiting from the circumstances of WW2 to run up a large number of wins and championships.
This is a guy who walked into a league where the two big monsters were the one he had left at his last stop (LSU) and Urban Meyer's Gator bunch of the Tebow Era.
4) Every single national champion since 2007 (except 2013 FSU) has either been Saban or a team that beat him on the way to the title.
2007 LSU, 2008 Florida, 2010 Auburn, 2014 Ohio St, 2016 Clemson, 2018 Clemson, 2019 LSU
Twelve times in 13 years, the team that won it all had to somehow find a way to beat Nick Saban. Only the 2007 season is one of those "well it was a coincidence" seasons. Even in 2013, the argument can be made that Auburn DID have to beat us for the opportunity to play FSU.
Has ANY other coach in history - or at least since 1936 since it was a bit of a hodge podge before then - been directly involved in 12 of 13 national championships? I seriously doubt it because for starters that means that coach has to have a career AT LEAST 13 years long. And most HEAD coaches get fired long before 13 years, even good ones who no longer are achieving. Also, there hasn't been an era where conference teams were winning a bunch amongst the titles of the guy who was winning a bunch.
5) His record against ranked teams:
In 10 games against #1, Saban has won seven times. Even the great ones on average will only win 5 of those generally speaking.
In 42 games against top 5 teams, he's 27-15. Again, he's about 6 games above what should be expected even of a great coach.
He is 31-12 in games against top ten ranked teams.
He has more wins against ranked top 25 teams (90) than ANY OTHER COACH in FBS history. He pulled this off in 25 years. The previous record holder (the one at Shower U) took 46 years to beat that many. Saban beat more in about half the time.
6) His NFL pipeline
Alabama has had 365 players drafted into the NFL since 1936.Sixty-four of those were in the first round.
I'm willing to say, "OK, we won't count the 2009 NFL draft because Saban didn't recruit those guys." I'll play that game.
Saban developed 92 of those players, including 32 first-round draft picks. FULLY HALF of the entire history of CFB first round picks Alabama has had, he developed.
We'll give him 19 more at LSU with 2 in the first-round.
He recruits.
He develops to the next level.
He wins.
Notice I didn't even mention the end result of all those wins. Seven national titles is the CLOSING argument - not the opening one.
RTR
5) His record against EOY ranked teams is
6) His record in post-season games is
1) His ACTUAL (as opposed to "the NCAA took five wins away") on field percentage is .7996 (in other words, .800).
That is 13th all-time among coaches who were PRIMARILY FBS/Division I coaches - and Saban has coached more games than the other 12, which is more opportunities for failure. Given that: a) losses drop your pct more than wins raise it if you're good; and b) Saban is actually past what should be his prime achievement years - this is an incredible statistic.
The guys ahead of him on the list in winning pct? Rockne, Leahy, Urban Meyer, Switzer, Osborne, Fielding Yost, Neyland, Wilkinson, Dabo, Devaney, Stoops, Chris Petersen
Keep in mind Saban has coached TWO HUNDRED MORE GAMES than Rockne and Leahy and over 150 more games than Dabo or Wilkinson.
2) He has coached in what is indisputably the most competitive era of college football.
Hard core reality whether people like it or not - the overall quality of ALL SPORTS have increased dramatically in the past century as sports have become more organized. Olympic records of long ago are now routinely accomplished in high school in some cases. Training regimens, supplements, medical care, and strategies have altered sports to such a point that the modern era in any sport is ALMOST always the most competitive. Not to knock Knute Rockne in any way - but there's no way in hell that he could coach Notre Dame NOWADAYS and win 88% of his games.
3) He has also coached in what is (okay) arguably the most competitive conference in football for most of his career.
This is not Urban Meyer running up his winning pct by going 22-2 at Utah (not that Meyer is not also a fantastic coach). It's not Bob Reade staying in Division III Augustana and winning 86% of his games and 4 national titles at the low level or Frank Leahy largely benefiting from the circumstances of WW2 to run up a large number of wins and championships.
This is a guy who walked into a league where the two big monsters were the one he had left at his last stop (LSU) and Urban Meyer's Gator bunch of the Tebow Era.
4) Every single national champion since 2007 (except 2013 FSU) has either been Saban or a team that beat him on the way to the title.
2007 LSU, 2008 Florida, 2010 Auburn, 2014 Ohio St, 2016 Clemson, 2018 Clemson, 2019 LSU
Twelve times in 13 years, the team that won it all had to somehow find a way to beat Nick Saban. Only the 2007 season is one of those "well it was a coincidence" seasons. Even in 2013, the argument can be made that Auburn DID have to beat us for the opportunity to play FSU.
Has ANY other coach in history - or at least since 1936 since it was a bit of a hodge podge before then - been directly involved in 12 of 13 national championships? I seriously doubt it because for starters that means that coach has to have a career AT LEAST 13 years long. And most HEAD coaches get fired long before 13 years, even good ones who no longer are achieving. Also, there hasn't been an era where conference teams were winning a bunch amongst the titles of the guy who was winning a bunch.
5) His record against ranked teams:
In 10 games against #1, Saban has won seven times. Even the great ones on average will only win 5 of those generally speaking.
In 42 games against top 5 teams, he's 27-15. Again, he's about 6 games above what should be expected even of a great coach.
He is 31-12 in games against top ten ranked teams.
He has more wins against ranked top 25 teams (90) than ANY OTHER COACH in FBS history. He pulled this off in 25 years. The previous record holder (the one at Shower U) took 46 years to beat that many. Saban beat more in about half the time.
6) His NFL pipeline
Alabama has had 365 players drafted into the NFL since 1936.Sixty-four of those were in the first round.
I'm willing to say, "OK, we won't count the 2009 NFL draft because Saban didn't recruit those guys." I'll play that game.
Saban developed 92 of those players, including 32 first-round draft picks. FULLY HALF of the entire history of CFB first round picks Alabama has had, he developed.
We'll give him 19 more at LSU with 2 in the first-round.
He recruits.
He develops to the next level.
He wins.
Notice I didn't even mention the end result of all those wins. Seven national titles is the CLOSING argument - not the opening one.
RTR
5) His record against EOY ranked teams is
6) His record in post-season games is
I didn’t read the seven pages of this thread. My answer is that he wouldn’t have the same level of success anywhere but Tuscaloosa. He may have risen to the level of being considered the GOAT elsewhere , but I’m not sure of the level of success. My reasoning? It took a confluence of things for the success. A fanbase and boosters, especially boosters that were tired of not winning . They knew what they were doing was not working , many of you remember the days of Meddlesome boosters. A reason many top flight coaches wouldn’t consider Alabama . I credit Paul Bryant, jr and MAL Moore for their influence to change this! They gave Nick total control of the program Boosters were hands off! MAL MOORE! An athletic director that gave Coach everything he needed to succeed. EVERYTHING! You see this copied everywhere throughout CFB now. Lastly, Coach himself. His time in the NFL made him appreciate the college game even more! He is a much better coach at Alabama than at LSU. Now some may say that was just his natural evolution , I say that the above reasons created it!
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At this point I am starting to thing Saban could turn his alma mater into a powerhouse.
Honestly, I have little doubt he could have been the "GOAT" at multiple programs, including LSU had he stayed there.
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