ESPN article - Saban and the Bama QB problem

[Slowpoke Catracho]

 

[bamaga]

I think he’s a lot closer than some realize. He walked into a train wreck at ole miss and has turned them into a competitive team. What could he do with more resources? He seems to be getting away from some of the wild analytic decisions. I understand why he was doing some of that in trying to overcome some of the disadvantages was facing against more talented teams. I admit I’m a fan of Lane. I watch ole miss every week. The only team I follow more is Bama. The job he has done there has been impressive. He’s done more than the right reverend freeze outside of beating Bama a couple of times.

The one doing it the closest to Saban is Kirby. To the point Shane Beamer , when hired by Kirby, remarked he thought he was walking into the Alabama program, not Georgia. No coincidence he was the longest with Saban of any on field coach. At one time many of us thought he would just succeed Nick, but obviously not anymore.

Dabo would have to eat a kot of hunble pie before a largeportion of the fanbase would accept him.

Sark would be a good choice, don't think we could outbidTexas though. No , it would have to be someone else for awhile.

yeah, some think it will be 2030, Im thinking more like 2027.

 

[bamaga]

I'll just leave this here:
View attachment 36954
Tiny bit of cherry picking as we just did this before losing to Georgia in the title game:
View attachment 36955

Dude, thats basically one season. I mean the very last game of one year and the second game of year three???. Cherry picking is right. So they had a bad year, we know this ! They lost 2 games, oh, woe with me! Man, you guys are something.

 

[JDCrimson]

Kiffin wants the Bama job because 1) he believes Sark is a fixture at Texas, 2) wants to go head to head with Sark, 3) Bama is the only program where he can win at the level he believes he is capable of.

When the game changed from defensive leverage to offensive leverage that is when Saban started having staff instability. In fact, the moment Saban brought Kiffin is the moment when the identity of the team would be offensive driven with moderate defense. It's been a gradual slide since then in defensive prowess and on field results. Defense has not won us a NC since 2012. We needed offense to win the 2015 NC. In 2016 the defense did everything humanly possible to win but we didn't have enough offense in 2016 to win a NC.

So the path to coaching stardom doesn't necessarily have to go through Tuscaloosa anymore. Maybe it did because that is where the best players were until the transfer portal came into being. The guys who aren't necessarily great recruiters but excellent coaches will have the advantage going forward because they can cherry pick the portal for what they need.

But take offensive leverage, transfer portal, NIL, and CNS age and these are significant trends not working in our favor...

 

[Evil Crimson Dragon]

I admit I've had this feeling, too.

Well, when you hear reported rumors of the players meeting including them discussing Saban's "failing leadership", its not hard to understand his feelings..........

 

[Bamaatthebeach]

Well, when you hear reported rumors of the players meeting including them discussing Saban's "failing leadership", its not hard to understand his feelings..........

And these "reported rumors" come from where? Isn't this rumor reporting supposed to be discouraged on this site?

 

[BamaInBham]

Well, when you hear reported rumors of the players meeting including them discussing Saban's "failing leadership", its not hard to understand his feelings..........

Where did you get that? I've not heard that in reference to Saban. Seems you would want some solid confirmation before posting that. There has been a lot of hot air in circulation.

 

[KrAzY3]

I agree with most all of this.

We should be looking for 2-3 portal upgrades yearly. Period.

If we can outrecruit the country for 5 stars, we need to start outrecruiting them for the top portal guys. Especially at the key spots.

I would argue for a bit more, but mostly due to the changing landscape.

The important thing from my perspective is that transfer players are actually "cheaper" in terms of what you have to invest to get them. It can take years to land a recruit, and they can still flip at any time, a transfer guy is a much shorter process, it takes time for a recruit to see the field, a transfer guy is usually more immediate.

So for instance, a recruit I might spend a scholarship for four years (and a signing slot) to have two years of him playing, a transfer guy I spend a scholarship for two years to have him play two years. It's much cheaper...

Let's take a look at what Alabama did this year. They signed a full recruiting class as usual, two of those guys are starting, and one of them is struggling as a starter. They got 5 guys via the transfer portal. Buchner, well we know about that, but notable of them Key was starting and Marshall already has 18 tackles so he's contributing well.

So Alabama used up about 25 scholarships for two starters and then they used 5 more to get two quality starters, which is the better use of resources?

Not only that, but Alabama actually lost 21 via the portal! Not all players that are not contributors either, for instance Kyhree Jackson has 10 tackles and 2 interceptions for Oregon so far this year. So Alabama has to be able to reload fast enough and not just replace quality veterans with unproven kids.

Finally, just like in recruiting, there are tricks I think Alabama can and should be doing. In the same way you can use greyshirts, and early enrollees to get a little more out of the process, you can use walkons to add a lot while saving scholarships.

At one point the portal consisted of about 50% walkons, I imagine that isn't the case anymore, but still it's a way for someone who isn't on scholarship and wasn't recruited to try to find a different landing spot. On special teams in particular, there's going to be some real gems there, proven college level contributors (punter, place kicker, long snapper, etc...) that are not on scholarship and as such can be compensated via NIL instead of a scholarship.

So these guys are nearly free, your 85 limit isn't touched, but you can actually get a proven place kicker for instance, instead of what Alabama has done some years, which is to have two place kickers on scholarship and sometimes not even have one that was decent.

Long story short though, the portal is an asset, Alabama needs to use it more and more effectively. If Saban can dominate it like he dominates recruiting, Alabama could in theory actually become better than it ever was under Saban, because there won't ever be weaknesses, they all will be addressed via the portal.

It's also interesting to note where some of the Alabama transfers went, two went to Colorado, two went to Oregon (Dan Lanning) where they both are contributing. Lanning had a 10 win team, and he brought in 15 more guys via the portal. I think that's going to be an easier path to success in the future.

Where did you get that? I've not heard that in reference to Saban. Seems you would want some solid confirmation before posting that. There has been a lot of hot air in circulation.

Not only that, but if the players did actually say something like that, it's time to pull a Colorado and hit the portal hard. This would basically back up the notion they played poorly on purpose because Milroe wasn't playing, and you don't need those type of players. Too much talent out there to kowtow to that.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

I was adamantly against NIL, I knew that "real" NIL was only going to produce a negligible amount of money for most players (we're talking low 5 figures) but it was Pandora's box when it came to buying players. This is the game now though, and you play it or you lose by default.


The idea is that the strong prey on the weak. Alabama is not in the best position for NIL, but they are still in the top ten for sure. So if they operate from a position of strength, they are going to have their pick from dozens of programs out there if they have their NIL situation sorted out well enough.

Now, obviously you shouldn't need to do it on the scale Colorado did, but I would argue that the portal class each year should be more important than the recruiting class! Think about it, who is going to be more ready to contribute immediately?

Heck, even with the way Saban recruits there are some years where the handful of guys he brought in via transfer have more impact than the true freshman! Now, imagine if he was actually recruiting the portal hard, actually using it like a true weapon not to fill a hole here or there.

That's the new path to success in my opinion because it's buying what you need when you need it. Why wouldn't you? Why would you waste all those resources recruiting kids that generally won't even play for a couple years and if they do you don't know how well they will?

Just look at Xavier Weaver, Colorado brought him as as a veteran wide reciever, a proven commodity, he has more receiving yards than Alabama's top two guys combined. Alabama's top receiver last year had less than 700 yards with a Heisman QB throwing to him.

What about Adonai Mitchell? Texas gets him out of the portal, he scores two TDs on Alabama. Alabama got beat by a transfer QB throwing to a transfer WR. That's how you do it now...

That's how it's being done.
I know this is not a long term tactic, but it fills holes. Who knows what positions will be vulnerable next year. If we target our needs we will get more bang for our bucks, than gambling that a kid in highschool will develope in time to fill our needs. It appears to me that right now, guys from the Portal are a known commodity, and a better gamble than Recruiting kids in highschool. So... I would be looking in Jr. Colleges, and other colleges that can't pay enough to retain the star players. I know this sounds like what the Pros are doing, and it is. I think we need to at least consider what we haven't recruited. Make the NIL companies and some players happy.

I'm afraid this is the new reality, unless the NCAA makes some rules to opperate differantly.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

If and when saban walks out. My first choice is sark by a long shot. Second depending on the timing would be Dabo. Third would be kiffin.

I don’t think the guy following saban will be successful being a saban clone. And I think it’s important for it to be someone near or in the saban tree though

obviously timinig is everything but if someone told me that this was Sabans last season and we’d have kiffin has the coach for the next 5-10 years I’d take it and feel like we are in good hands

Not Dabo... Sark and Kiffen would do a credible job. (Sark may not be intrested if thing go well in Texas.) One of my top choices would be Lane Kiffen. I know some folks didn't like young impetious Lane, but there is a chance that Lane has grown up some since he was here.

 

[AWRTR]

That's how it's being done.
I know this is not a long term tactic, but it fills holes. Who knows what positions will be vulnerable next year. If we target our needs we will get more bang for our bucks, than gambling that a kid in highschool will develope in time to fill our needs. It appears to me that right now, guys from the Portal are a known commodity, and a better gamble than Recruiting kids in highschool. So... I would be looking in Jr. Colleges, and other colleges that can't pay enough to retain the star players. I know this sounds like what the Pros are doing, and it is. I think we need to at least consider what we haven't recruited. Make the NIL companies and some players happy.

I'm afraid this is the new reality, unless the NCAA makes some rules to opperate differantly.

It’s very much like MLB. There are small market teams that develop a player and then the Yankees or another big market team comes in and makes them a huge offer and they jump ship. I absolutely hate it in baseball and I hate in college football.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

It’s very much like MLB. There are small market teams that develop a player and then the Yankees or another big market team comes in and makes them a huge offer and they jump ship. I absolutely hate it in baseball and I hate in college football.

I don't like buying players, but when the teams on our schedule do it, it's to gain an advantage over us.
Unless the rules are changed, we can either get beat, because of our principals, or we can do the same as everybody else, and maybe eck out a win over the teams that stick to playing by ther old rules.