You had to read to the very end of the thread to get this excellent contribution from a Gamecock.
How to beat Bama... score more points than them.
There is a key stat being missed when people mention the Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, and Arkansas games, and the performance of Blake Sims.
The key is this: "@"
Those were all road games. What is often lost in the discussion of Sims, is that he is a first year starter. Alabama had a lot of trouble with communication early in the season. Sims has progressed a great deal, and at home or neutral sites, he and the Alabama offense have been very hard to handle. When they are "on," good luck hanging with them.
What is scary, is that Alabama is a very young team. If I remember correctly, they have the 2nd highest number of freshmen and sophomores in their two deep, of any team in a major conference.
Another thing that cannot be restated enough, is that for a team to beat Alabama, that team will need to have all-world QB play. That is a common denominator among teams that have hung a loss on the Crimson Tide...and it generally comes from mobile QB's with a high degree of accuracy.
To the person comparing who Bama has played vs who tOSU has played as a barometer to predict future success, that is pointless. Top 25 rushing offenses are only relevant when those stats are forged against similar teams. Wisconsin has a strong run game, but their passing offense ranks 117th. When playing them, tOSU could afford to play man and bring a safety up for run support. They are terrible at throwing it, and Alabama will eat your lunch throwing it. Wisky has 13 passing TD's, and 14 interceptions...Alabama has 30/7, and double the yards. Wisky ran up stats on really weak defenses. Probably their most impressive game was the opening loss against LSU on a neutral field, and those kinds of games are difficult to quantify. Outside of LSU, the highest ranked run defense Wisconsin had faced prior to tOSU, was 51st. Wisky played an FCS team, and 5 teams with run defenses ranked 90+. The Badgers were probably in shock that there was a run defense on the field when tOSU played them. In terms of Ohio State's opponents, Mich State, and PSU have statistically strong defenses, but tOSU played a ton of teams with really, really bad defenses. According to Sagarin, the Alabama strength of schedule rank is 4th. tOSU schedule rank is 52. Again, according the Sagarin, Alabama is 9-1 against top 30 teams. tOSU is 2-0. Stats are meaningless when the level of competition is that different.
The same thing can be said about looking at the Oklahoma bowl game for inspiration. OU played a Bama team that was literally 1 second away from playing for a national title. I am sure you have seen the video of Auburn running back the missed field goal. They were deflated and didn't want to be there. It was a lot like the 2008 Utah game following Florida's come from behind win over Nick Saban's second Bama team. Nick Saban coached teams vying for titles don't overlook teams, and with 3 weeks to prepare, they will be ready. tOSU better be.
I think it could be a competitive game, but it 100% rides on your QB play. If you are counting on your run game, don't. Your QB will have to play out of his mind to keep this game close enough to be winnable. Alabama's defense will scheme to make your 3rd string QB beat them. That is the bottom line. Their goal will be: stop the run and get you in 3rd and long. From there, Smart will hit you with disguised coverages, and exotic blitzes. On the other side, tOSU has given up points to teams with balanced offenses, and Alabama will be the best offense you have faced in that regard. Alabama will score... if I had to put a number on it, I would say 40-ish... mid 30's+. The Buckeyes will have to keep up, and your running game alone won't do that against Alabama.
The Buckeyes rank 4th in the nation in points per game, but you are giving your 3rd team QB his second start against a defense that often makes good QB's look bad. As has been mentioned, the Bama secondary is not as good as years past, but they are still good - regardless of what Auburn did. Texas A&M's rookie QB eviscerated South Carolina, and carved up Auburn. Against Alabama, they had 8 first downs, and 171 yards of total offense. Again, I can't stress this enough... it all falls on your QB. I can understand Alabama fans being somewhat optimistic about this game. If I was a Buckeye fan, I would be hopeful, but I wouldn't feel confident.