Survivor Bias

[Tidewater]

I found this really interesting.
When data gives the wrong solution
The Center for Naval Analysis was trying to find out where Allied bombers were shot that was shooting them down, so they counted holes on the ones that came back.
One scientist (a Hungarian Jew emigré) said, "Hang on."

This is an idea with lots of implications.

 

[Padreruf]

I found this really interesting.
When data gives the wrong solution
The Center for Naval Analysis was trying to find out where Allied bombers were shot that was shooting them down, so they counted holes on the ones that came back.
One scientist (a Hungarian Jew emigré) said, "Hang on."

This is an idea with lots of implications.

I cannot tell you how many churches imitated "successful" contemporary churches, only to fail. There are so many dynamics to "success" and "failure" that many analyses are just short-sighted. I read "Good to Great" but never adopted its premises for the church. I was lucky...

 

[dtgreg]

I guess most Americans were so reflexively racist that the descriptor "Hungarian Jew Emigre" was pointed out to show that "even these people had value, see?" Also, "poring". Still, a good article. One always needs to contemplate the part of the picture that is missing.

 

[Tidewater]

I guess most Americans were so reflexively racist that the descriptor "Hungarian Jew Emigre" was pointed out to show that "even these people had value, see?" Also, "poring". Still, a good article. One always needs to contemplate the part of the picture that is missing.

No, what I was saying was he was a guy who was rejected by his society (at Nazi behest) who was probably quite pleased to help Allied bombing of said Nazis become more effective.
I mean this guy probably would have preferred not to emigrate.

 

[dtgreg]

No, what I was saying was he was a guy who was rejected by his society (at Nazi behest) who was probably quite pleased to help Allied bombing of said Nazis become more effective.
I mean this guy probably would have preferred not to emigrate.

Sorry for the confusion. I appreciate the irony; I didn't take it properly. Yes; NAZI ideology got in the way of intelligent decision-making quite a bit (Einstein having to flee, Hitler declaring war on us after Pearl Harbor, etc.) I was talking about the original Center for Naval Analysis text. I didn't mean your emphasis, although it got me thinking.

What I find so fascinating is how people who commit evil acts don't go around with a mad scientist or Snidely Whiplash laugh. They think THEY are the "good" people and the rest of the world is evil. When you predicate your monstrous behavior on pseudo-scientific/occult beliefs, you have to follow the incantations where they lead, usually to your own demise.

 

[Tidewater]

Thought of this:

 

[Padreruf]

Sorry for the confusion. I appreciate the irony; I didn't take it properly. Yes; NAZI ideology got in the way of intelligent decision-making quite a bit (Einstein having to flee, Hitler declaring war on us after Pearl Harbor, etc.) I was talking about the original Center for Naval Analysis text. I didn't mean your emphasis, although it got me thinking.

What I find so fascinating is how people who commit evil acts don't go around with a mad scientist or Snidely Whiplash laugh. They think THEY are the "good" people and the rest of the world is evil. When you predicate your monstrous behavior on pseudo-scientific/occult beliefs, you have to follow the incantations where they lead, usually to your own demise.

In one of my favorite movies, The Godfather, Marlon Brando keeps saying (not exact quote) "I just want to take care of my family." Later, Al Pacino uses the same line to justify his actions. I have seen a lot of bad actions justified by the end result...imho the means are not justified by the end; the means have to justify themselves or they are not just.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I found this really interesting.
When data gives the wrong solution
The Center for Naval Analysis was trying to find out where Allied bombers were shot that was shooting them down, so they counted holes on the ones that came back.
One scientist (a Hungarian Jew emigré) said, "Hang on."

This is an idea with lots of implications.

This has long been one of my favorite stories from WWII. Thanks for sharing it - love the application to problem solving.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

No, what I was saying was he was a guy who was rejected by his society (at Nazi behest) who was probably quite pleased to help Allied bombing of said Nazis become more effective.
I mean this guy probably would have preferred not to emigrate.

Almost all. They considered themselves as "German" as anyone else. My former Secretary's daughter in law married a Jewish USAF officer who finally made brigadier. His parents had a thriving medical instrument company, which the Nazis confiscated. They emigrated to the US and founded another such company in California, which was equally successful. After the war, they returned to Germany and recovered their company. When their son married in SC, where he was stationed, my secretary attended and said that the attendees included a large contingent of obviously very wealthy Germans. It reminded me of a remark of my German next door neighbor back in the 70s. I pointed out the anomaly in considering Arabs as "Aryans." She just said "Earle, it was always a political concept"...

PS: my name in German comes out as "Öl," which means "oil" in English. In all Scandinavian languages, pronunciation almost the same, spelling "Øl," which means "beer"...

 

[Jon]

I use a version of that same image in a presentation I've given dozens of times about Data Science and analytics. Usually starts a really good conversation with customers