This year's Alabama defense is better than last year's. Last year you shut them out. Yes, LSU's offense is better this year. But enough better to score 40+ points? Yes, your ILB play is weak this year, but it was just as weak last year. Don't believe me? Rewatch any game of your choice. Mack and Dylan played like they were true freshmen last year. They were lost and out of position more than Lee and Harris are this year. I have no idea why, but the film does not lie.
This year's LSU defense is worse than last year's version - by quite a bit - especially against the pass. Last year they gave up 29 points to Alabama. Last year Alabama had 576 yards of total offense in that game - 295 yards in the air against an NFL secondary. This year their run defense is excellent, but they cannot pressure the QB. That means that Tua will have time. Every other QB that they have faced had capitalized on that. What will Tua do? Goodness.
Last year you went into this game with Tua beat up, hampered by a knee injury. I expect that he will be at least as mobile as last year, even coming off the ankle surgery.
Seriously, the only thing that has improved for LSU is the offensive game plan (which is exactly the same as Alabama's offensive game plan last year, so you know what to do to limit it) and their run defense.
Generally LSU and Alabama play strength vs strength on both sides of the ball. This year Alabama's defensive strength is their pass defense. LSU's offensive strength is their pass game. You align. But LSU's defensive strength is their run defense while Alabama offensive strength is the pass game. These do not align - edge Alabama.In other words, you are built to stop their strength this year while they are not built to stop yours.
I would be a lot more worried if they had Sark calling their plays. He can and will take what the defense is giving. Essentially, they have Locksley in Joe Brady. He calls the same RPO plays no matter what the defense is doing.