I don't buy any of this at all - but then again, I guess it's just because this is my 12th Presidential race, and these stories are as predictable as "it's going to snow in New England in March."
I can only see TWO WAYS that President Biden isn't the nominee in 2024:
1) incapacitation/death
2) he decides, "to hell with these people, I can have more fun chasing Jill around nekkid than this"
And it's number two that's the more...interesting, simply because he's caught in a vise grip if he does. If he announces too soon, he's a lame duck with the opposition controlling the House; if he waits too late, he cripples the fundraising ability of EVERY potential successor on his side, which is not something that will be taken lightly, especially if (God forbid) it helps enable the resurrection of Agent Orange to the White House.
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Go look through old newspapers, you'll find the same thing over and over and over again.
1) The voters hate both major party candidates and wish they had more/better choices.
2) No matter how great the economy is, the people largely say it's not good enough
3) A small but very loud faction of the incumbent party wants the "standard bearer" replaced (usually the fringe lunatics that couldn't win an election outside their local pool hall or bridge club)
4) The voters will ALWAYS tell you they want "another choice," but that "other choice" only works in the abstract; the moment that candidate enters the race, they find things they don't like about him (insert Ross Perot mention right here)
It's just worse now because of the Internet.
And if you don't remember anything else I've ever said, remember this:
FLUSH NATIONAL NUMBERS DOWN THE COMMODE
I'll never understand why people don't get this rather obvious point. It does not matter how your NATIONAL numbers are, you are winning STATE contests.
Reminder: the first race is in South Carolina for the Democrats in 2024, the state that lifted Biden in 2020.
He wins there - and the whole thing is over right then.