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2008: Is Virginia in Play?

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Bama_Dawg

1st Team
May 17, 2005
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Sounds ridiculous, but look at the vote totals from this night:

Barack Obama
619,969

John McCain
241,768

Mike Huckabee
188,624

That means that Obama got 190,000 more votes than McCain and Huckabee COMBINED. Two other figures of note . . . if you do some quick math with the exit polls, it appears that roughly 50,000 Republicans crossed over and voted for Obama (WTH?) . . . and, as CNN notes, Obama trounced McCain among Independents.

Exit Polls: Independent voters break for Obama and against McCain

Virginia Democratic primary voters who did not identify themselves as Democrats were more likely to back Barack Obama, according to exit polls.

One out of every five Democratic primary voters were independent — and those voters chose Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton, 67 to 32 percent. Seven percent of the voters in that contest were Republican voters who decided not to vote in their own party’s primary – they chose Obama by an even larger margin, 71 to 25 percent over Clinton. Self-identified Democrats also chose Obama, 59 to 20 percent.

Roughly one out of every five voters in the GOP primary were independent as well – but those voters did not vote for the party’s likely nominee, John McCain, who had been expected to benefit from their support. Instead, independent voters backed Mike Huckabee over McCain, 43 to 34 percent, with Ron Paul pulling in 19 percent. Republicans also broke for Huckabee, but by a much narrower margin, 47 to 45 percent. Virtually no Democrats participated in the Republican contest.
Click to expand...

Does anyone on this board live in Virginia? Is it a blue state now? And why?
 
Sen. James Webb is being bandied about as a possible running mate for Barack Obama, should he manage to secure the nomination. Which would bode well for VA going blue in November.

Should Hillary make a come-back and take the nomination, I doubt she'll have any chance in VA. Virginia Democrats roundly rejected her last night.



Bama_Dawg said:
Sounds ridiculous, but look at the vote totals from this night:

Barack Obama
619,969

John McCain
241,768

Mike Huckabee
188,624

That means that Obama got 190,000 more votes than McCain and Huckabee COMBINED. Two other figures of note . . . if you do some quick math with the exit polls, it appears that roughly 50,000 Republicans crossed over and voted for Obama (WTH?) . . . and, as CNN notes, Obama trounced McCain among Independents.



Does anyone on this board live in Virginia? Is it a blue state now? And why?
Click to expand...
 
It's On A Slab said:
Sen. James Webb is being bandied about as a possible running mate for Barack Obama, should he manage to secure the nomination. Which would bode well for VA going blue in November.

Should Hillary make a come-back and take the nomination, I doubt she'll have any chance in VA. Virginia Democrats roundly rejected her last night.
Click to expand...

If that happens, I will be voting for Obama with no hesitation.
 
Bama_Dawg said:
Sounds ridiculous, but look at the vote totals from this night:

Barack Obama
619,969

John McCain
241,768

Mike Huckabee
188,624

That means that Obama got 190,000 more votes than McCain and Huckabee COMBINED. Two other figures of note . . . if you do some quick math with the exit polls, it appears that roughly 50,000 Republicans crossed over and voted for Obama (WTH?) . . . and, as CNN notes, Obama trounced McCain among Independents.



Does anyone on this board live in Virginia? Is it a blue state now? And why?
Click to expand...
Virginia has an enormous expatriate population, but if you look at census data, it is concentrated in northern Virginia and the Tidewater (and Albemarle, where the University is).
In the Tidewater, that comes from a lot of military and ex-military that never went home after their service.
As for the northern Virginia lot, the vast majority work for the Federal government, or sell goods and services to those who work for the Federal government. This makes a large, growing, and self-identified clientèle for any candidate that appears to want to grow the Federal government.

I wouldn't make too much of these numbers. First, the Republican nomination is already sewn up, so I would wager Republican turnout was down compared to the general election in the fall. Two, in Real Virginia, (i.e. outside of northern Virginia), I would bet that the vote disparity between Obama and McCain was much less.

Still, with the never-ending growth of Federal government employees, I would not be at all surprised to see Democratic next fall, especially if, as Slab suggests, Webb gets the nod for VP.
 
While I live in Columbus, OH now I spent 12 of the last 16 years living in Northern Virginia.

Northern Virginia is now solidly Democrat. Tidewater has a large military popluation and I would think that it would tend to vote with McCain. They supported Jim Webb in the Senate race last year, but then, he is a military guy.

Virginia has elected a Democrat to the Governor's position 2 times in a row. They now have a sitting Senator who is a Democrat. Even Warner is considered a moderate (albeit hawkish) Rebublican.

I definitely think that and Obama nomination would put Virginia in play because because he tends to energize a group of voters in Virginia who don;t get all that excited about Hillary. I thyink that were Hilary to be nominated McCain would run away with the state because the evangelicals (still a big force, especially in southern and western counties) would mobilize against her. They aren't so much "for McCain" as "anti Hillary." I don't think that Obama would have that type of galvanizing effect, and even if he will be able to offset it with an energized african-american base.
 
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=bbe615f5-c846-4849-a0c2-999687fd54c4

Just out today. Guess I found my answer . . .

CFV0219_03341210105.png
 
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