JessN: Auburn wrap-up: Another miracle finish, because Alabama couldn’t finish

[JessN]

Jess - Is the 2 bye week schedule something that will continue or was it an calendar anomaly because there were 14 weekends between labor day and Thanksgiving this year?

I believe the SEC is going to keep it a two-bye setup.

Funny thing is, Alabama didn't really take advantage of it this year. A bye on Week 2 doesn't help much.

 

[257WBY]

The Aub record is certainly a concern, but I find the losses in November to be a larger concern. Alabama has controlled it's own destiny to the NC three times in recent years and has lost late in the season. Alabama has been very fortunate to have other teams also stumble down the stretch. All of the games came down to the wire, so maybe that is all that can be hoped for by any reasonable fan. In all three there seemed to be an issue of being uptight and not fired up. Maybe that's something the sports shrink can address.

 

[JessN]

I get what you are saying about Saban, and trends related soley to him can have some legitimacy. Cooper was a different story as he couldn't even beat bad Michigan teams. His was more than a trend. He just couldn't beat them, and we were often embarrased by them. (BTW - I don't mind your honesty about OSU - I don't stick my head in the bushes and I know that it isn't personal).

So let me ask a question - if you are really on to something (not saying that you are, just asking), and if Saban never seems to beat the better Auburn teams but Alabama manages to win 3 more national championships before he rides off into retirement, will the losses to Auburn along the way taint that for you? Or are you more concerned because you believe that Gus is going to stay and Auburn may be a 9 win team just about every year for a while, meaning no more Alabama championships?

That's kind of the $64,000 question, isn't it?

The only honest answer I can give right now is, I don't know.

Stretching out the hypothetical -- that Malzahn makes Auburn perennially a 9-or-more-win team, and Alabama never wins that game again under Saban, I don't think there are going to be three more titles. I hesitate to speculate on that number, because the playoffs are expanding and Alabama could get in through the back door. But let's just say AU stays at 9 or more and Alabama doesn't win for a long time. That would put Alabama in the same situation Texas is in now, with a successful, older coach in place but a legacy that would be seen as decaying. I think the overall legacy would absolutely be tarnished. If he leaves here with a losing record against Auburn, there's no doubt in my mind it will take some of the shine off.

Therein lies my hope that he'll actually change his approach. If he understands that continued struggles in the UA-AU series could be harmful to the legacy, he'll address it. You just have to hope he's not stubborn enough to dismiss those concerns.

 

[B1GTide]

The Aub record is certainly a concern, but I find the losses in November to be a larger concern. Alabama has controlled it's own destiny to the NC three times in recent years and has lost late in the season. Alabama has been very fortunate to have other teams also stumble down the stretch. All of the games came down to the wire, so maybe that is all that can be hoped for by any reasonable fan. In all three there seemed to be an issue of being uptight and not fired up. Maybe that's something the sports shrink can address.

In the SEC, the conference champion is going to pick up a loss almost every season. With the playoff, it is less a concern. I really think that the playoff helps the SEC.

 

[B1GTide]

That's kind of the $64,000 question, isn't it?

The only honest answer I can give right now is, I don't know.

Stretching out the hypothetical -- that Malzahn makes Auburn perennially a 9-or-more-win team, and Alabama never wins that game again under Saban, I don't think there are going to be three more titles. I hesitate to speculate on that number, because the playoffs are expanding and Alabama could get in through the back door. But let's just say AU stays at 9 or more and Alabama doesn't win for a long time. That would put Alabama in the same situation Texas is in now, with a successful, older coach in place but a legacy that would be seen as decaying. I think the overall legacy would absolutely be tarnished. If he leaves here with a losing record against Auburn, there's no doubt in my mind it will take some of the shine off.

Therein lies my hope that he'll actually change his approach. If he understands that continued struggles in the UA-AU series could be harmful to the legacy, he'll address it. You just have to hope he's not stubborn enough to dismiss those concerns.

And I think/believe (with no evidence other than the difference in the way that each of those losses played out) that the fact that Saban has not beaten an Auburn team with 9 wins or more is a statistical anomaly. I think that you will see it shift in your direction, as the coin gets flipped more and more. And I think that the shift will happen without Saban changing his approach to the Auburn game (though he will probably change his approach to the GM game plan). I just don't see him changing his "process" for one opponent, as his process is not focused on winning GAMES, it is focused on winning plays.

Really, for me, it is my belief in nature and mathematics. I believe that the better team wins most games, everywhere. I believe that Alabama will have the better team just about every year that you face Auburn with Saban at the helm, even when they win 9+ games. Therefore, I believe that Alabama will win most of those games.

Yes, there are the Coopers of the coaching world - great in all respects except for their inability to beat one team. But I just don't think that you have that in Saban. Time will tell.

 

[Atl Joe]

No, they did not win because they wanted it more. Did they want it more when Alabama stopped them on 4th and 1 in their own territory in the 4th? Did they want it more when Alabama, on their next possession, forced them to punt from their own end zone and took over with 4:26 to go in the game, up by 7, at the Auburn 25? No, they did not want it more.

I am glad you made these points. In spite of these late game hardships AU faced, they still won. They believed they would overcome these situations and played like it. Yes, they wanted it more. If not, how did the game turn?
AU was in a hole and Alabama was at an advantage in score and field position. Alabama did not capitalize on their opportunities and AU did. Alabama was in a better position to win at the end and did not. It is very easy to see when a team has lost their focus and determination.
Each game does have a life of its own and the players on the field were different than the ones in 2010. So what was the common denominator in both games? Saban.
Hey, I am not banging on him. He is the best coach in college football but sometimes you have to recognize the mental condition of your team and adjust accordingly either by a change of tactics or one hell of a halftime speech.

 

[B1GTide]

I am glad you made these points. In spite of these late game hardships AU faced, they still won. They believed they would overcome these situations and played like it. Yes, they wanted it more. If not, how did the game turn?
AU was in a hole and Alabama was at an advantage in score and field position. Alabama did not capitalize on their opportunities and AU did. Alabama was in a better position to win at the end and did not. It is very easy to see when a team has lost their focus and determination.
Each game does have a life of its own and the players on the field were different than the ones in 2010. So what was the common denominator in both games? Saban.
Hey, I am not banging on him. He is the best coach in college football but sometimes you have to recognize the mental condition of your team and adjust accordingly either by a change of tactics or one hell of a halftime speech.

So Auburn wanted it more when they stopped Alabama, but Alabama did not want it more when they stopped Auburn? That just makes no sense.

ETA:

More 4th quarter data:

Defenses:

* Alabama's defense forced 2 punts and one turnover on downs in 4 Auburn possessions
* Auburn's defense forced one turnover on downs in 5 Alabama possessions

Decided edge to Alabama

Offenses:

* Alabama's offense scored 7 points and gained 152 yards in the 4th - ToP = 6:28
* Auburn's offense scored 7 points and gained 98 yards in the 4th - ToP = 8:32

Call it a push/even

Special teams:

* Alabama missed a FGA (33 yards) after having a made FG taken off the board (penalty)
* Alabama had a 44 yard FGA blocked, then added 15 yards with a bad penalty
* Alabama missed a 57 yard FGA, and had it run back for the game winning score
* Auburn's punts - one was incredible, and one was miserable
* Auburn had no FGA
* Auburn blocked the afore mentioned 44 yard FG
* Auburn returned the afore mentioned missed FG for the game winning TD

HUGE advantage to Auburn, and where the game was decided.

 

[Con]

I have been reading all the posts from this thread and I can't help but wonder if we just hit a couple of the field goals we took or should have taken (4th and 1) would we even be having these discussions. We left possibly 12 - 15 pts on the field at Auburn. We make them, we cover the spread and win rather comfortably.

 

[TideEngineer08]

You know guys... it's possible for both teams to "want it", and have a determination to win the game. And when that happens, well, one team has to lose no matter what.

Lack of execution does not equal lack of focus or determination.

 

[Atl Joe]

You know guys... it's possible for both teams to "want it", and have a determination to win the game. And when that happens, well, one team has to lose no matter what.

Lack of execution does not equal lack of focus or determination.

But, a lack of focus and determination can lead to a lack of execution.

Alabama has much more talent than AU and it is not even close.
If anyone thinks Auburn was not playing with more passion and energy for the whole game and especially near the end, then we must have been watching two seperate games.

 

[92tide]

So Auburn wanted it more when they stopped Alabama, but Alabama did not want it more when they stopped Auburn? That just makes no sense.

ETA:

More 4th quarter data:

Defenses:

* Alabama's defense forced 2 punts and one turnover on downs in 4 Auburn possessions
* Auburn's defense forced one turnover on downs in 5 Alabama possessions

Decided edge to Alabama

Offenses:

* Alabama's offense scored 7 points and gained 152 yards in the 4th - ToP = 6:28
* Auburn's offense scored 7 points and gained 98 yards in the 4th - ToP = 8:32

Call it a push/even

Special teams:

* Alabama missed a FGA (33 yards) after having a made FG taken off the board (penalty)
* Alabama had a 44 yard FGA blocked, then added 15 yards with a bad penalty
* Alabama missed a 57 yard FGA, and had it run back for the game winning score
* Auburn's punts - one was incredible, and one was miserable
* Auburn had no FGA
* Auburn blocked the afore mentioned 44 yard FG
* Auburn returned the afore mentioned missed FG for the game winning TD

HUGE advantage to Auburn, and where the game was decided.

more evidence that the HUNH will be saban's demise

 

[B1GTide]

But, a lack of focus and determination can lead to a lack of execution.

Alabama has much more talent than AU and it is not even close.
If anyone thinks Auburn was not playing with more passion and energy for the whole game and especially near the end, then we must have been watching two seperate games.

And too much focus and determination can also lead to poor execution.

 

[pcfixup]

But, a lack of focus and determination can lead to a lack of execution.

Alabama has much more talent than AU and it is not even close.

I don't completely buy this, at least the width of the gap.

Alabama was probably overrated and AU was underrated by quite a bit.

In the case of Alabama, the Oline has only played a couple of good games this year.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

I don't completely buy this, at least the width of the gap.

Alabama was probably overrated and AU was underrated by quite a bit.

In the case of Alabama, the Oline has only played a couple of good games this year.

I know our OL wasn't anywhere as good as last year but that was expected. We lost three to the NFL. But even still it seemed for the most part we weren't as physical of an Oline as we've been used to seeing.

 

[Atl Joe]

So Auburn wanted it more when they stopped Alabama, but Alabama did not want it more when they stopped Auburn? That just makes no sense.

Of course it makes no sense when only selected moments of the game are mentioned. However, look at the whole game. From start to finish, what was the biggest difference between the two teams?
AU had mre determination and emotion.

Here are some of the Alabama miscues from the rest of the game:

Kicker misses a FGs
Punter drops a snap
QB misses several throws
WR's drop several passes (one in the end zone)
3rd down spot not challenged
More missed tackles than I can remember
Blown coverages in the secondary

 

[B1GTide]

I know our OL wasn't anywhere as good as last year but that was expected. We lost three to the NFL. But even still it seemed for the most part we weren't as physical of an Oline as we've been used to seeing.

Agree 100% - the O-Line was good, but did not dominate the LOS.

 

[AlistarWills]

I have been reading all the posts from this thread and I can't help but wonder if we just hit a couple of the field goals we took or should have taken (4th and 1) would we even be having these discussions. We left possibly 12 - 15 pts on the field at Auburn. We make them, we cover the spread and win rather comfortably.

I counted 30 points left on the field.

9 pts off obvious missed field goals.
Cooper dropped a ball that hit him in the hands IN THE END ZONE. +7
Cooper has a ball batted away that he had to wait on after beating the *U secondary. AJ puts something on that pass downfield and Coop scores. +7
AJ fails to see a wide open White in the right corner of the end zone and scrambles that way eventually throwing into coverage late. AJ sees this and it should be a score. +7

Mind you, some of those TD's are made and the FG attempt that gets missed never occurs, but both occured so I'm counting it.

This game should have been out of hand very early in the game. Execution didn't happen. Like Coach Saban says, if the players execute the called plays, you are a genius, if they fail to execute, you are a bum.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Agree 100% - the O-Line was good, but did not dominate the LOS.

Football and its components is a lot like a machine of working parts where one part not working properly can severely limit the performance of another part that ultimately causes the machine not to work right.


It all starts up front, whether it be on the offensive side of the ball or the defensive side of the ball. From an offensive perspective if your offensive line cannot move bodies then more than likely your offense is going to have problems. Same goes with the defense. If your Dline cannot get penetration and re-establish the line of scrimmage in their favor then the opposing offense will more than likely have success. From there the entire "machine" begins to suffer. The offense starts to get out of sync or the defense begins to break down and everything from that point is like a domino effect.

 

[RTR91]

My boss always talks about Auburn being an emotional team. He talks about how they run on emotion; shut them up, and they quit.

Alabama had several opportunities to shut Auburn up.

First drive of the game: missed field goal after TJ took the opening hand off for a big gain.

Bama gets the ball at its own one yard line, goes 83 yards, and misses a field goal.

The defense held Auburn after the 99 yard bomb to Coop and got the ball back for the offense. What happened next? Bama got stoned on 4th and 1. Think Auburn would have been in the game if Bama scores? Fans would have left the stadium knowing the game was over.

Auburn takes over but does nothing. Bama gets the ball back. After running the ball and getting negative two yards, Cade has his kick blocked. Like the previous Alabama drive, Auburn was not taken out of the game. Rather, they got more emotional and excited.

The rest is history.

Jess' point in his post nails the four drives I mentioned above. Alabama didn't finish the drives. Alabama didn't take Auburn out of the game.

The same happened in 2009. Alabama missed one field goal and turned the ball over on downs after withstanding Auburn's emotional run early.

In 2010, Alabama goes up 21-0. On the next drive, Ingram has ball knocked out of his arms and go 20 yards into the endzone. Auburn has to punt on the following drive. Alabama goes 48 yards to the Auburn 2 before kicking a field goal. Auburn responds with a touchdown drive to cut the lead to 24-7. Alabama responds with a drive going all the way to the Auburn 8 yard line before Greg McElroy gets sacked and fumbles the ball.

Jess' overall point holds true - Alabama didn't finish drives in 2009, 2010 or 2013. In two of those seasons, Auburn made Alabama pay for it. Against Auburn, Alabama needs to put them away early. Gus said last week "If the score is close going into the fourth, I feel good." Why? Because Alabama wouldn't have killed their emotions and hope.

 

[TideEngineer08]

But, a lack of focus and determination can lead to a lack of execution.

Alabama has much more talent than AU and it is not even close.
If anyone thinks Auburn was not playing with more passion and energy for the whole game and especially near the end, then we must have been watching two seperate games.

Passion and energy do not equal "wanting it more" or determination.

Most of the time, when you see a team that seems to lack "fire", it's not because they don't want to win or that they're not focused. It's because the other team is doing something that they can't get a handle on. Most of the time it's schematic stuff. So, they look slow and lethargic. But it's not because they're not focused or that they don't "want it." It's because they're out of position time and again because the other team has them out-flanked.

That's what happened to our defense, I'm certain. Auburn's offense may be simple to understand, but it's not simple to defend. And our offense simply made errors in execution and I believe errors in coaching decisions. That's not a indication of a lack of "passion," IMO.