BCS selection process - if no NCG, ugly Sugar Bowl

[fireater]

RE: SECCG loser in BCS game, last year LSU in title game while the loser relgated to CapOne, BUT UGA in Sugar

 

[NYBamaFan]

has the loser of the SEC championship game ever gone to a BCS bowl? Seems like if you lose the SEC you're dumped down the capitol one status usually. Honest question, I really don't know the answer to that, I'd have to look it up.
In some respects it seems better to not go to the SECCG than to go and lose.

I do not think that the SECCG loser has ever been undefeated entering the game. That means that the SECCG loser has always had at least 2 losses. Difficult to get into the top 12 with 2 losses or more, one coming on your last game played.

GA went over TN last year for two good reasons: they only had 2 losses, and TN was the worst SECCG team in the history of the game...

 

[4thGenBamaGrad]

But PSU will not get 40% of the #1 votes unless Texas loses (they are getting ~5% now). And, if UT loses, we will be even more solidly in the top 2.

I think that you are worried about nothing. If we win out, we are in. If we do not, we will not deserve to be in...

Here's the math problem:

If Penn State gets just 9 #1 votes from voters who have: 1. Texas 2. Alabama 3. Penn State, and then switch to: 1. Penn State 2. Texas 3. Alabama, then you will have:

PSU: gain 18 pts.
UA: lose 9 pts.

for a PSU net gain of 27 pts. vs. UA--giving them the #2 spot ahead of us (based on today's poll).

 

[NYBamaFan]

Here's the math problem:

If Penn State gets just 9 #1 votes from voters who have: 1. Texas 2. Alabama 3. Penn State, and then switch to: 1. Penn State 2. Texas 3. Alabama, then you will have:

PSU: gain 18 pts.
UA: lose 9 pts.

for a PSU net gain of 27 pts. vs. UA--giving them the #2 spot ahead of us (based on today's poll).

Do you really think that anyone is going to change their vote from UT to PSU if UT keeps winning? The only discussion has been between Bama and PSU. Almost everyone with a vote agrees that UT is #1.

One more thing - check the current polls. We WIDENED the gap this week, even though PSU just beat the toughest team on its schedule. How do you expect that to translate into PSU taking votes from UT?

I really think that you are killing yourself over nothing...

 

[GulfCoastTider]

Do you really think that anyone is going to change their vote from UT to PSU if UT keeps winning? The only discussion has been between Bama and PSU. Almost everyone with a vote agrees that UT is #1.

One more thing - check the current polls. We WIDENED the gap this week, even though PSU just beat the toughest team on its schedule. How do you expect that to translate into PSU taking votes from UT?

I really think that you are killing yourself over nothing...

I agree. There is no way that Penn State passes Alabama in the BCS standings. The computers have PSU no better than 5th or 6th and that is killing them. A one-loss Oklahoma team is closer to jumping Penn State than Penn State is to jumping Bama. It would almost take a massive, collusive effort to switch the human poll positions of the two teams.

If we win out, we are in. We are ALABAMA. Not Auburn. We don't get the shaft. We give it.

 

[bama_at_uab]

'98 #23 Mississippi State - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Cotton bowl
'99 #5 Florida - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'00 #18 Auburn -lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'01 #2 Tennessee -lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'02 #22 Arkansas - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Music City Bowl
'03 #5 Georgia - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Capital One Bowl
'04 #15 Tennessee - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Cotton Bowl
'05 #3 LSU - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Peach Bowl
'06 #8 Arkansas - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Capital One Bowl
'07 #14 Tennessee - lost SECCG -No BCS bowl --> went to Outback Bowl

Since the BCS started, if you lose the SECCG you're not playing in a BCS bowl. Now you could argue that everything changes now that there's a separate BCS championship game, and while that's true, you'd better hope that the winner of the SEC plays for that championship or it looks like you'll be playing somewhere else come bowl time.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

'98 #23 Mississippi State - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Cotton bowl
'99 #5 Florida - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'00 #18 Auburn -lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'01 #2 Tennessee -lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'02 #22 Arkansas - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Music City Bowl
'03 #5 Georgia - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Capital One Bowl
'04 #15 Tennessee - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Cotton Bowl
'05 #3 LSU - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Peach Bowl
'06 #8 Arkansas - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Capital One Bowl
'07 #14 Tennessee - lost SECCG -No BCS bowl --> went to Outback Bowl

Since the BCS started, if you lose the SECCG you're not playing in a BCS bowl. Now you could argue that everything changes now that there's a separate BCS championship game, and while that's true, you'd better hope that the winner of the SEC plays for that championship or it looks like you'll be playing somewhere else come bowl time.

Good research. Were any of the SECCG losers undefeated going into the game?

 

[4thGenBamaGrad]

Few differences between this year and previous years (in regards to the losing the SECCG question):

1. More at-large spots (as of 2007)

2. This year, the East and West Division champs (if, as predicted, each has 1 loss or less) will remain the top 2 attractive SECOND teams after the SECCG.

 

[PalmBayBama]

If we run the table and still get snubbed by the voters, look at the selection process:


Fiesta Bowl, having lost the #1 team to the NCG, gets the first at-large pick:
Oklahoma

The Rose Bowl, having lost the #2 team to the NCG, gets the second at-large pick:
Florida

The Sugar Bowl gets its host team:
Alabama

The Orange Bowl gets its host team:
Florida State

The Rose Bowl gets its host team:
USC

The Fiesta Bowl, as the bowl played on the date nearest to the National Championship Game, gets the next pick:
Ohio State

The Sugar Bowl gets the next pick:
Utah? Boise State? West Virginia?

Orange Bowl gets the last pick

Ordinarily, I'd contend that the Rose Bowl would try to get Ohio State vs. USC in this scenario, but since they already played this year you may be right.

 

[bama_at_uab]

Good research. Were any of the SECCG losers undefeated going into the game?

No, I don't think so. The closest would be Tennessee in '01 --> they had a loss to Georgia early that year, and then LSU in '05 and they had a loss to Tennessee early that year.

 

[rolltidescott]

Here's the math problem:

If Penn State gets just 9 #1 votes from voters who have: 1. Texas 2. Alabama 3. Penn State, and then switch to: 1. Penn State 2. Texas 3. Alabama, then you will have:

PSU: gain 18 pts.
UA: lose 9 pts.

for a PSU net gain of 27 pts. vs. UA--giving them the #2 spot ahead of us (based on today's poll).

You have my permission to worry about it, if you REALLY want to worry about it... :biggrin:

 

[Bama-fo-life]

'98 #23 Mississippi State - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Cotton bowl
'99 #5 Florida - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'00 #18 Auburn -lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'01 #2 Tennessee -lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Citrus Bowl
'02 #22 Arkansas - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Music City Bowl
'03 #5 Georgia - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Capital One Bowl
'04 #15 Tennessee - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Cotton Bowl
'05 #3 LSU - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Peach Bowl
'06 #8 Arkansas - lost SECCG - No BCS bowl --> went to Capital One Bowl
'07 #14 Tennessee - lost SECCG -No BCS bowl --> went to Outback Bowl

Since the BCS started, if you lose the SECCG you're not playing in a BCS bowl. Now you could argue that everything changes now that there's a separate BCS championship game, and while that's true, you'd better hope that the winner of the SEC plays for that championship or it looks like you'll be playing somewhere else come bowl time.

Good points. However, all but one of those teams came in with a loss or multiple losses. If we are undefeated and get our only loss in the Championship Game, then we are in a BCS. To my knowledge, only one of these teams was undefeated going in and had it's only loss at the CG at that was Tenn, but that was before they added two more teams by adding one game.

If we go undefeated there is no way they will keep an SEC team out of the BCS Title game. I know people will bring up the barn but that was before a one loss SEC team and a two loss SEC team dominated the title game.

You will have some argue that a SEC champion Bama with one road loss to defending champion LSU could get in over a PSU team with a weak schedule. A top five win over a resurging FLA would get people's attention and then people will look not only at our sch. but our quality wins. That would be five victories over teams that would have spent some time in the top ten in the country.

 

[twjua]

the only way we don't go to the NCG i if we lose a game. If we take an L in the SECCG, then we are still BCS bound, Sugar and probably with a crappy matchup.

 

[DiamondDust]

Ordinarily, I'd contend that the Rose Bowl would try to get Ohio State vs. USC in this scenario, but since they already played this year you may be right.

If the Rose Bowl would happen to lose Penn State to the National Championship, there is no way they would not select Ohio State to replace them. They have shown us that the Big 10/PAC-10 match is all they care about. If a Big 10 team is anywhere within the potential of being selected, they will be selected.

Rule 3 of the BCS Bowl Selection Procedure:
3. If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick. If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.

 

[CrimsonChuck]

It would almost take a massive, collusive effort to switch the human poll positions of the two teams.

Which happend to Georgia last year, although that was a unique case.

 

[TiderMan]

I agree. There is no way that Penn State passes Alabama in the BCS standings. The computers have PSU no better than 5th or 6th and that is killing them. A one-loss Oklahoma team is closer to jumping Penn State than Penn State is to jumping Bama. It would almost take a massive, collusive effort to switch the human poll positions of the two teams.

If we win out, we are in. We are ALABAMA. Not Auburn. We don't get the shaft. We give it.

PSU is now 3rd in 5 of the 6 computer polls and is second in the other. They made a big jump in the computers this week and closed the gap in the BCS standings between us. While I still feel if we win out, we will be in the BCS championship game, I can see that we may be left out. Especially if PSU jumps us in one or both of the polls. It can happen.

 

[bama_at_uab]

It's true, it could happen. I think if we take care of business and win out it won't happen but it could. We really needed Penn State to lose this weekend, but hey maybe Texas-Tech will take care of Texas and then Oklahoma take care of them. Who knows how all this will shake out. All Bama can do is try to win the next game, and right now that's Arkansas State.