Video: College Football Nerds: Alabama vs Georgia Preview, Computer Model & Prediction - Can Bama Shake the Road Blues?

MikeInBama

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Their model predicts 52-30 win for Bama, huge asterisk due to lack of data. Needs 4 weeks of data and only has ~3.
 
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Cruloc

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Sep 1, 2019
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Interesting discussion on The Film Guy Network....on Bama's D.

1st and 2nd downs are usually really good. Disguised and multiple.

3rd down...he doesn't understand why Wommack goes Cover 1 Robber Pressure every time we're in 3rd and 5 up to a 3rd and 12. Says in those situations there is a 100% to be in that Cover 1 Robber Pressure and it always gets picked apart. Said he saw it 3 times in the first 35 snaps vs Wisconsin.
 
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editder

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We seem to have their number. That’s got to be an intangible that weighs on them. I can’t remember the last time they beat us when we had a better team than they did, whereas we’ve beaten them at least twice in recent years when they had the better team.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Interesting discussion on The Film Guy Network....on Bama's D.

1st and 2nd downs are usually really good. Disguised and multiple.

3rd down...he doesn't understand why Wommack goes Cover 1 Robber Pressure every time we're in 3rd and 5 up to a 3rd and 12. Says in those situations there is a 100% to be in that Cover 1 Robber Pressure and it always gets picked apart. Said he saw it 3 times in the first 35 snaps vs Wisconsin.
After FSU destroyed our OL with stunts I noticed Wommack started having our DL do more stunts. So he at least learned something.
 
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Power Eye

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This game seems pretty evenly matched on paper. I think our strengths play to their weakness and vice versa. But the intangibles of this game are pretty interesting. Georgia is a great home team and we are not a great road team. On the other hand, we have had their number for years, and it weighs on them.

I don't see any middle ground for our fanbase once the outcome is determined. It will either be a state of elation and that we are back into the thick of things in terms of the CFP, or we will be licking our wounds wondering where things went wrong with the season. I'm not saying that's how it should be treated, I'm saying that's probably how it will be.

For Georgia, even though they are undefeated and have a good win over Tennessee, I think losing to us at home will take its toll on their fanbase as well. Even though we have dominated them over the last 15+ years, they've only played and lost to us twice at home during that span and it's been ten years since we traveled to Athens. Granted, the "neutral site" games were heavily in Georgia's favor in terms of fan support, but it's still not the same as playing in Athens.

I really think it will be a great game, but I think it will come down to whether or not Simpson can lead us on a game winning drive. He's played very well, but he hasn't picked us up and carried us to a win yet in a challenging situation. If he can do that, then I think we win the game.
 
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Rush

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We seem to have their number. That’s got to be an intangible that weighs on them. I can’t remember the last time they beat us when we had a better team than they did, whereas we’ve beaten them at least twice in recent years when they had the better team.
I suppose the question then becomes whether we had their number thanks to CNS...
 

editder

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I suppose the question then becomes whether we had their number thanks to CNS...
Maybe, but last year was one of the games I was counting as a win for us when they had the better team. It didn’t seem like it at the time, but looking at the season overall….

Edit: on second thought, yes, it’s definitely because of CNS that we came to have their number in the first place. It carried over into last season. So we may still be in their heads.
 
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BamaMoon

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Interesting that they link our road struggles back to CNS's last couple of years. I don't remember the games they are referring to, but they clearly said they don't think this is a "CKD problem."

Of course, until we reverse this, it is CKD's problem, but they don't think it started with CKD.
 
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bamajas

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Interesting that they link our road struggles back to CNS's last couple of years. I don't remember the games they are referring to, but they clearly said they don't think this is a "CKD problem."

Of course, until we reverse this, it is CKD's problem, but they don't think it started with CKD.
In 2021, only beat UF by 2, lost at unranked A&M, needed 4OT at a bad Barn team
In 2022, squeaked by Texas, lost at Tennessee and at LSU
In 2023, had the USF debacle, didn't put away A&M, and needed 4th & 31 at Barn

That's three per season for the last three years of Saban's tenure
 
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BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
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In 2021, only beat UF by 2, lost at unranked A&M, needed 4OT at a bad Barn team
In 2022, squeaked by Texas, lost at Tennessee and at LSU
In 2023, had the USF debacle, didn't put away A&M, and needed 4th & 31 at Barn

That's three per season for the last three years of Saban's tenure
Thank you!

So why are there several threads already talking about CKD's replacement as if this is a new issue???
 

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