Analysis of First Playoff Poll
Note... all of this depends on Bama winning out and NOT making the SECCG.
First, the BEST news. One, the committee values our body of work higher than Notre Dame's. We have enough "makeup" to our BOW that them losing to #1 on the road in a close game didn't catapult them past us. Going forward, they will not have a better win than us (Stanford OR LSU/MSU)... so if we both win out, Notre Dame is behind us. Two... LSU is #2. A win vs. #2 would probably be the best win anyone ranked lower than them (tonight) will muster going forward. At worst, it would probably be a tie... and then the eye test/SOS would take over. Three... no Big Twelve team is in front of us... so #2 is able to take place.
Second, the WORST scenario for us going forward... having 4 undefeated/one loss teams who are conference champs WITH a championship game. In no scenario would the committee take Bama with no conference champion over a one-loss conference champion from the Power 5's. There most likely will be an undefeated Big 10 champ - that's one. ACC is probably the most likely after that to have an undefeated/one loss champ - that's two. Pac 10 is probably less likely than that to have a one-loss champ - that'd be three. In this scenario, two things kill us - either an undefeated Big 12 champ (no championship game) OR a one-loss Florida beating UM in the SECCG. IF in the Power 5's there's four undefeated/one-loss conference champs OR three along with an undefeated Big Twelve team, we're toast and have no chance.
Third, the most likely roads outside of us winning the SEC. One... Notre Dame beating Stanford and Stanford winning the Pac 12 with two losses (no way ND jumps us). Two... Big 12 cannabalism - if the champion has one loss, we get the nod because they don't get the added bump of a championship game. Three... UF losing, either before or in the SECCG (little chance SEC would get two one-loss teams into playoff this year).
Of all of this, the Notre Dame development was the greatest news of the evening IMO!