How Does AL A BAM A Match Up Against UT(e)?

[CrimsonJazz]

I don’t think we have any other choice but to throw the ball. Without Miller, our running game is not good enough to control the clock.

Certainly, but we still have to run enough to keep them honest. Also, UT's run D isn't exactly stellar. It's still possible that some of our young guys can make a positive impact.

 

[BamaHoopsBoi]

I'd send Formby to the lockerroom five minutes before kickoff to get a playsheet that doesn't exist and tell him not to come back unless he has it.

"Go find the shoulder pad stretcher."

 

[Isaiah 63:1]

I asked Chat to run simulations, assuming no Jam Miller. What it produced:

Given those assumptions, here is a stylized summary of what the distribution of outcomes looked like in such a simulation (these are not exact, but representative):​

​

Outcome Type​	Approx Probability​	Typical Score Range (Alabama-Tennessee)​
Alabama wins comfortably (by 8-20 pts)​	~45%​	31-24, 34-24, 35-27, 38-26​
Alabama wins moderately (by 1-7 pts)​	~25%​	28-24, 30-27, 27-23, 29-26​
Upset by Tennessee (Tennessee wins)​	~25%​	27-26, 30-28, 31-29, 24-21​
Blowouts (rare)​	~5%​	40-20, 42-17, or a surprise 38-14 in favor of Tennessee​

​

From those, the most probable band is an Alabama win by about 7–10 points, with final scores clustering around Alabama 31, Tennessee 24 or Alabama 30, Tennessee 23.​

​

If I pick a median simulated outcome, it might be Alabama 30, Tennessee 23. The interquartile range (middle 50% of outcomes) might span from Alabama 26–Tennessee 20 up to Alabama 34–Tennessee 28.​

​

The “tail risk” is nontrivial: in maybe 15–20% of simulations, Tennessee wins, especially if turnovers or big plays happen against Alabama.​

​

 

[crimsonaudio]

What is UT’s pass rush like? Because if Formby starts at RT that could be a problem again. I’ve seen statues move faster than Formby.

They're one of the best in the country (4.33 sacks per game). Elite pass rush.

That said, Ty gets rid of the ball at NFL speed most of the time (<3 seconds), so I think his quick decision making and precision can mitigate UT's admittedly stellar pass rush.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

They're one of the best in the country (4.33 sacks per game). Elite pass rush.

That said, Ty gets rid of the ball at NFL speed most of the time (<3 seconds), so I think his quick decision making and precision can mitigate UT's admittedly stellar pass rush.

I’m hoping this will be the game where we connect on a few Deep Balls to back them off.

We’ve been so close a few times this year.

If they feel they have to defend the short, medium, and deep shots then we can really keep them guessing and put them on their heels.

I want this Offense to Nuke Tennessee off the planet.

 

[Ledsteplin]

Assuming Jam will not be playing is huge. He just seems to make our running game decent enough to compliment Ty’s passing ability. Now Ty will be required to use his legs more. If we had Jam I’d feel really good about this game. The D needs to bring it big time.

I'd like to see Daniel Hill step it up. He's very athletic and versatile. He hasn't really played much.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I’m hoping this will be the game where we connect on a few Deep Balls to back them off.

We’ve been so close a few times this year.

If they feel they have to defend the short, medium, and deep shots then we can really keep them guessing and put them on their heels.

I want this Offense to Nuke Tennessee off the planet.

OL will have to play their game of the year to allow deep routes to develop.

I expect Bama to push the run and short / midrange pass game so Ty can get the ball out quickly.

But Grubb has forgotten more about calling an offense than I'll ever know, so we'll see...

 

[CoolBreeze]

OL will have to play their game of the year to allow deep routes to develop.

I expect Bama to push the run and short / midrange pass game so Ty can get the ball out quickly.

But Grubb has forgotten more about calling an offense than I'll ever know, so we'll see...

Right, I think that the key to this offense is keeping the other team off balance with the play calling. The OC has been doing a pretty good job of it this year and Ty is great at seeing the matchup pre-snap and getting the ball out quickly. We can pass to open up the run in some cases and I also think there are quite a few wrinkles we work on in practice that have not been revealed in a game yet. But Ty is the key and he is doing a great job so far.

 

[81usaf92]

I think we beat the hell out of them. A lot of their stats are hyper inflated by weak competition. The true Tennessee is the one playing MSU and Arkansas. Mizzou is a more legitimate defense.

 

[Pastor G]

What is UT’s pass rush like? Because if Formby starts at RT that could be a problem again. I’ve seen statues move faster than Formby.

UT has 26 sacks after 6 games and a truckload of TFL. It could be a long day for Ty if the line doesn't pick up the pass rush from Tennessee.

 

[CB4]

DeBoer stated on the SEC conference call that Meadows is most likely out this weekend and he still waiting on a determination for Jam.

 

[rolltide_21]

We will see Saturday what should’ve happened last year in Neyland. A 2 TD victory- minimum

 

[crimsonaudio]

BREAKING: Tennessee superstar CB Jermod McCoy has been listed as OUT against Alabama.

 

[uaintn]

They were not great at CB even before the injuries. I expect them to sell out to try to affect Ty on most every down. I don't expect him to have time for a lot of deep shots. However, some mid range completions might end up going a long way.

Also, our screen game has been much better this year. Our tight ends have been open a lot this season, especially against Missouri. We need to take advantage of that.

Ty cannot take sacks and hits. If it isn't there, toss it. Also, running lanes will inevitably open for him. He needs to take them.

 

[Bama9001]

I'd send Formby to the lockerroom five minutes before kickoff to get a playsheet that doesn't exist and tell him not to come back unless he has it.

Formby is a RS-soph I believe. Let's not run him off. There was a time when most OL didn't become dependable until their Jr/Sr years. Most didn't play, let alone start, until then. I'm hoping that by this time next year he's everything we want him to be. Right now he's quite inconsistent but he's still learning and developing. Just seems whatever he's doing in practice isn't translating to game day yet.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Formby is a RS-soph I believe. Let's not run him off. There was a time when most OL didn't become dependable until their Jr/Sr years. Most didn't play, let alone start, until then. I'm hoping that by this time next year he's everything we want him to be. Right now he's quite inconsistent but he's still learning and developing. Just seems whatever he's doing in practice isn't translating to game day yet.

We're not running him off, we're sending him to the lockrroom to find the "other" playbook.

 

[Bama Lee]

Formby is a RS-soph I believe. Let's not run him off. There was a time when most OL didn't become dependable until their Jr/Sr years. Most didn't play, let alone start, until then. I'm hoping that by this time next year he's everything we want him to be. Right now he's quite inconsistent but he's still learning and developing. Just seems whatever he's doing in practice isn't translating to game day yet.

Formby has looked better at guard than tackle. Sanders has looked really good at guard as well. I think we will see a lot more of Carroll and also guard rotations

 

[CoolBreeze]

Alabama vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert football model

SEC rivals meet again in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday, as No. 6 Alabama welcomes No. 11 Tennessee in The Third Saturday in October. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

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