How good is Cincy?

[bamaslammer]

I know they are undefeated, but thats it. How good do they look relative to who they have played.

 

[UntouchableCrew]

Most people in the know seem to think this year's (2021) Cincy team is actually a little weaker than last years (2020) squad. AAC collectively was very down though.

They've got some NFL players on their defense (respectable DL, although not what you usually see in the SEC) and some decent corners.

Their offensive line is going to have a hard time block us, IMO. Desmond Ritter is pretty mediocre at QB.

I think it looks a lot like our 2016 win over Washington in the semifinals.

 

[Saban4Ever]

They have almost everyone back from last year.. they have a lot of juniors, seniors, and grad transfers. They have some NFL caliber players. They will be tough, at least for 3 quarters. They will be listening to the media all month about how they "don't have a chance", etc. They play the same defense as Arkansas and Ole Miss. Fickell will have them ready. Bama needs to have the same mindset they had v UGA.

I hope we win by double digits, but will take a 1 point win if it means NO INJURIES IN THE GAME.

 

[81usaf92]

They can give us problems if we take them lightly. They are well coached. But we SHOULD win comfortably and be able to get a head start on buying up championship tickets and hotel rooms in Indianapolis by the 3rd quarter.

Put it this way. Play like we did Saturday then 40-20. Play like we have done vs LSU and Auburn then it could be a barn burner. We are a 14 point favorite for a reason but we must prove it.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I watched the first half of their game with Notre Dame. You know, their high water mark of the year.

Notre Dame is getting pressure on every single play, their QB is a bit erratic, and the Cats lead, 17-0, because the Irish threw an INT at the one-yard line and then threw a pick deep in their own territory and fumbled a kickoff.

Cincy has yet to drive the ball at all on them, but they have a 17-point lead because of Irish stupidity.

I'll watch more but I also saw them Saturday and another game earlier this year.

They're nothing like an SEC team.
They're not overly impressive.

The issue is they can't win this game but we most assuredly CAN lose it.

They look like a slower and less crisp version of peak Boise State.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

They can give us problems if we take them lightly. They are well coached. But we SHOULD win comfortably and be able to get a head start on buying up championship tickets and hotel rooms in Indianapolis by the 3rd quarter.

Put it this way. Play like we did Saturday then 40-20. Play like we have done vs LSU and Auburn then it could be a barn burner. We are a 14 point favorite for a reason but we must prove it.

ISWYDT.......

 

[Tidewater]

Most people in the know seem to think this year's (2021) Cincy team is actually a little weaker than last years (2020) squad. AAC collectively was very down though.

They've got some NFL players on their defense (respectable DL, although not what you usually see in the SEC) and some decent corners.

Their offensive line is going to have a hard time block us, IMO. Desmond Ritter is pretty mediocre at QB.

I think it looks a lot like our 2016 win over Washington in the semifinals.

And former Bama RB Jerome Ford. He's pretty good. Sorry we lost him, (but if I was behind Najee on the depth chart, I'd've probably transferred as well)

 

[BamaFlum]

I watched the first half of their game with Notre Dame. You know, their high water mark of the year.

Notre Dame is getting pressure on every single play, their QB is a bit erratic, and the Cats lead, 17-0, because the Irish threw an INT at the one-yard line and then threw a pick deep in their own territory and fumbled a kickoff.

Cincy has yet to drive the ball at all on them, but they have a 17-point lead because of Irish stupidity.

I'll watch more but I also saw them Saturday and another game earlier this year.

They're nothing like an SEC team.
They're not overly impressive.

The issue is they can't win this game but we most assuredly CAN lose it.

They look like a slower and less crisp version of peak Boise State.

Perfect way to explain. They can’t win; we can certainly lose. We need the UGA version of the Tide to show up and not the “Tiger” version.

 

[Tiderollin32]

Cincinnati is playing for the group of 5 honor and prestige in this game. Can be motivation for them or external noise but they will be playing as if this is their national championship. If we don’t assume we are just gonna walk straight into the Natty we all be fine.

 

[crimsonaudio]

If Bama shows up thinking they can just roll their helmets onto the field and walk out with a victory, they can (and likely will) lose.

If Bama takes the game seriously and prepares well, they'll likely cover the spread.

If Bama prepares and shows up fired-up like they did against UGA, it will be a colossal blowout victory.

 

[CajunCrimson]

They are better than Tulsa by an inch apparently. And Tulane by a score.

 

[Tidewater]

They're nothing like an SEC team.
They're not overly impressive.

The issue is they can't win this game but we most assuredly CAN lose it.

They look like a slower and less crisp version of peak Boise State.

I know it is rat poison (hope no players read this), but I have watched Cincie a few times and I agree, they are not particularly impressive. I had to ask myself why the four-letter sports network was pushing them so hard. The pushers' job is to get eyeballs on tellie screens, and if one half of NCAA Division 1A is practically ineligible for the playoffs, then that's a lot of disinterested eyeballs. They have to get a G5 team into the playoffs, to increase market share. It has not much to do with the team or its qualities. I think Cincie would have ended up 7-5 in the SEC. But they did defeat a weak ND at home, so they have that going for them.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

I watched their Notre Dame game. We should beat them pretty solidly but only if we show up.

Ridder hits a few nice balls a game but also lets the ball hang in the air too much at times. We should probably get a pick or 2 off of him. He does have some running ability though and they use him on some option type plays so we should probably be prepared for some of what Florida brought.

Their defense is okay they have solid guys all around and apparently a couple of very good outside corners NFL type guys. But i think Bryce should have a big game. It should also be a chance for Billingsly to have a breakout game if he can get it together a bit more than he has recently


Overall we SHOULD win this game relatively easily but i can see their offense troubling us at times. But we should also be able to get pressure on Ridder and while he can run he doesn't seem like much of a scrambler. If we play poorly like we did vs Auburn then it'll be close and there is an outside chance they pull the upset maybe.

This is just off of one game though so I'll probably watch more and adjust my opinion some

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Also Notre Dame was TERRIBLE in their game against them. 10 of Cincinnati's points came off of a horrible INT by the Notre Dame QB and a fumbled kick off return. Their QBs were pretty bad most of the game honestly.

 

[KrAzY3]

I think we've seen this before. TCU, Cincinnati, Boise St., Louisville, and notably Utah...

There is threshold for what a non-power conference team can do and it's fairly high. They are good enough to beat a top ten team and that's the hallmark this sort of program. They are not good enough to win a championship without a tremendous amount of luck, or to beat a top 4 team without help really.

For example, the 2010 TCU team was undefeated. They met a one loss Wisconsin team that really wasn't that great to begin with, but they won by 2 points in a game in which they had 84 less yards of offense and held the ball 8 less minutes (Wisconsin's quarterback was pretty bad completing only 12 passes for 159 yards to go along with negative rushing stats).

That's the sort of game these teams can win. We know about the famous Boise State victory over #7 Oklahoma by one point. Obviously Oklahoma did not play their best game. Ironically one of the more lopsided of these sort of games was the 2009 Sugar Bowl where Alabama clearly did not want to be there and Utah took advantage. JPW was pretty bad in that game, throwing 2 interceptions and Alabama's offense didn't show up, gaining only 208 yards. I doubt that happens this game.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I'm punching in the numbers for an analytics prediction.

Based on my eye test right now:
if we just played normal Alabama football and Metchie and BRob were 100%, we'd score 50 points.

Without? I still think we'll score 38.

The thing with Notre Dame is that they played two QBs. The first guy was basically Brady Quinn, he'd drop back and do his reads and play straightforward vanilla football. The second guy (Buchner) is a sort of Johnny Manziel wannabe without his football smarts and who panics and threw a colossally dumb interception in his own end.

Seriously - did any of you watch Notre Dame this year? They weren't very good but went 11-1. They should have beaten Cincy just from what I've seen in the first half and from what I recall of the final score, they actually "won" the 2nd half, meaning they adjusted.

And the turnovers the Irish made weren't Cincy making spectacular reads. You have a vanilla Greg McElroy (Coan) back there doing basic reads and throwing straight ball and messing up once. Cincy isn't even really moving the ball against the Irish all that well.

(I bring up the game stat sheet).

Okay, so.....Cincy beat them in yards, 390-341 and 2-for-11 on third down. Their QB was 19 for 32 for 297 and 2 TDs.

The Irish are only getting beat when they leave the middle open. They got penetration on every single snap of the first half, they just never got to Ridder. And he's, well he's so-so.

Cincy beat Notre Dame because:
- turnovers
- stupid penalties by the Irish
- the Irish QB wasn't as mobile as the Cincy one; Buchner was mobile but frightened and over aggressive throwing.

If we have the first two problems, we will lose.

Also, Cincy has been flagged for more penalties than we have (though less yardage) - against lesser teams.

 

[Crimson1967]

Too bad ND lost that game. We owe them another beatdown.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

I'm punching in the numbers for an analytics prediction.

Based on my eye test right now:
if we just played normal Alabama football and Metchie and BRob were 100%, we'd score 50 points.

Without? I still think we'll score 38.

The thing with Notre Dame is that they played two QBs. The first guy was basically Brady Quinn, he'd drop back and do his reads and play straightforward vanilla football. The second guy (Buchner) is a sort of Johnny Manziel wannabe without his football smarts and who panics and threw a colossally dumb interception in his own end.

Seriously - did any of you watch Notre Dame this year? They weren't very good but went 11-1. They should have beaten Cincy just from what I've seen in the first half and from what I recall of the final score, they actually "won" the 2nd half, meaning they adjusted.

And the turnovers the Irish made weren't Cincy making spectacular reads. You have a vanilla Greg McElroy (Coan) back there doing basic reads and throwing straight ball and messing up once. Cincy isn't even really moving the ball against the Irish all that well.

(I bring up the game stat sheet).

Okay, so.....Cincy beat them in yards, 390-341 and 2-for-11 on third down. Their QB was 19 for 32 for 297 and 2 TDs.

The Irish are only getting beat when they leave the middle open. They got penetration on every single snap of the first half, they just never got to Ridder. And he's, well he's so-so.

Cincy beat Notre Dame because:
- turnovers
- stupid penalties by the Irish
- the Irish QB wasn't as mobile as the Cincy one; Buchner was mobile but frightened and over aggressive throwing.

If we have the first two problems, we will lose.

Also, Cincy has been flagged for more penalties than we have (though less yardage) - against lesser teams.

100% agreed on the Notre Dame QBs. They were pretty horrible. And agreed on the turnovers too.

I honestly think this could be an epic beatdown but I'm trying not to be over confident because I thought we'd do a lot better against Auburn too. But, I don't think Cincy is capable of doing what Auburn did or even coming all that close

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think we've seen this before. TCU, Cincinnati, Boise St., Louisville, and notably Utah...

There is threshold for what a non-power conference team can do and it's fairly high. They are good enough to beat a top ten team and that's the hallmark this sort of program. They are not good enough to win a championship without a tremendous amount of luck, or to beat a top 4 team without help really.

For example, the 2010 TCU team was undefeated. They met a one loss Wisconsin team that really wasn't that great to begin with, but they won by 2 points in a game in which they had 84 less yards of offense and held the ball 8 less minutes (Wisconsin's quarterback was pretty bad completing only 12 passes for 159 yards to go along with negative rushing stats).

That's the sort of game these teams can win. We know about the famous Boise State victory over #7 Oklahoma by one point. Obviously Oklahoma did not play their best game. Ironically one of the more lopsided of these sort of games was the 2009 Sugar Bowl where Alabama clearly did not want to be there and Utah took advantage. JPW was pretty bad in that game, throwing 2 interceptions and Alabama's offense didn't show up, gaining only 208 yards. I doubt that happens this game.

And everyone get ready because for the next 25 days you're going to hear non-stop about "But Utah beat Alabama!"

Yes. They beat second-year Nick Saban's Alabama. A team that was slower than we are now, a team largely recruited by Mike Shula, a team that had no yet learned the business trip approach, a team with off-the-field distractions with Andre Smith, a team on probation even though eligible. A team that had not yet learned how to forget last week's loss and play to your fullest.

Name me the last time Alabama went into a game against a clearly overmatched opponent that odds showed shouldn't even be a contest and lost. When was that? 2010?

Also - when I was watching the ND-Cincy game, they were making a big deal about how since Fickel arrived the Cats were 34-6. Now they're 44-6. Wow, those are Alabama numbers.

Uh - go look at who they've played.

They beat some name teams who aren't any good - UCLA twice, Va Tech - and got blown into the next universe by Ohio State in 2019. And they lost to a disappointed UGA earlier this year.

In 2018, they played one ranked team (UCF) and got blown off the field.

In 2019, they played four ranked teams - Ohio St, UCF, and Memphis twice - and went 1-3, barely scraping out a win over UCF.

It's hard to count 2020, but they played ONE TEAM in the final ranking, UGA, and lost.

And this year they beat the Irish and Houston, in both cases when those teams turned the ball over.

Cincinnati cannot win this game.
But Alabama absolutely CAN lose it.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

100% agreed on the Notre Dame QBs. They were pretty horrible. And agreed on the turnovers too.

I honestly think this could be an epic beatdown but I'm trying not to be over confident because I thought we'd do a lot better against Auburn too. But, I don't think Cincy is capable of doing what Auburn did or even coming all that close

Yeah, but there IS something to the JHS voodoo, too, that makes no sense. Even when we beat them there, it's often a brutal war. 2011 was the only real exception. Even in 2015 they were down and nearly out and that bonehead made that bobble carry catch for the "it's not over yet" touchdown.