So much to discuss on this most interesting thread. Wish I had time to respond to all the good comments.
I will say I take the point of the Tide fan who quoted Gene Stallings about wanting to be the favorite because it probably means you're the better team. A few years ago, some economists studied some thirty years of betting on college football games. They found that if you'd bet on the favorite every game, you'd win 50% of the time, and of course if you always took the underdog and the points you'd win 50% of the time. There was absolutely no statistically significant advantage to always giving points or taking points.
A lot of people take this as evidence of handicappers' great knowledge of college football. Truth is, the Vegas lines have nothing to do with what the handicappers think will happen. Their own opinions don't matter to them. All they want is to attract half the money to one team and half to the other team. That way, they get their vig and take no risk on the outcome. They set up their point spreads with that in mind, which is why the Vegas line will move on some games. It means one team is drawing too much money, and they want to get more money on the other side. The fact that, over the long term, there is no advantage to consistently giving or taking points reflects the acumen of the betting public. It is arguably the most efficient market in the world.
Still, I like being the underdog in this game. Funny how the mind of a twenty-year-old male works. I was one myself, years ago, and all I can say is the coaches whose livelihoods depend on them earn their money.
Many Alabama fans put great credit in having Nick Saban on the sidelines for this game. They feel he gives them a big advantage over Mack Brown. Now, Nick Saban is a great coach, no argument there. He can coach my team any day. But I do think there's a tendency to underrate Mack Brown. The old knock on Mack is that he can recruit, but he's no good at developing players, preparing them, and the X's and O's. Heaven knows I heard that from enough Longhorn fans, back when OU was beating us every year.
My argument to them was, and remains, look at what happened when Mack moved from Chapel Hill to Austin. When he left NC, Mack took one asst. with him, his OC Greg Davis. The rest of the staff remained intact, loaded with players Mack had recruited. What happened? The Tar Heels quickly plunged into mediocrity. Meanwhile, at Texas, Mack inherited a team that had some good players but not nearly enough of them. They had gone 4-7 the previous year under John Mackovic. Mack's first recruiting class was OK, but with the late start was nothing great. Still, the Horns went 8-3, savaged Miss State in the Cotton Bowl, and haven't looked back.
Look at it another way. In this decade, Mack has beaten five coaches who have won national championships - Bob Stoops, Nick Saban, Jim Tressel, Pete Carroll, and Les Miles. I know, I know, he beat Saban when Nick was at LSU, and beat Miles when he was at Okla. State, and he's only 5-6 vs. Stoops, and he had Superman when he beat Pete Carroll, and Ohio State sucks, and on and on. But if the guy is an idiot, then all those successful coaches let themselves get beat by an idiot. Shame on them.
