First we have to rule out the ones that seem the least likely:
Austin Peay - duh
Utah St - duh
ULM - I don't know, they've beat Saban before......duh
Vandy - duh
Tennessee - plays LSU the week before....in Red Stick.......nope
Possibilities:
MSU
Texas
Arkansas
ATM
LSU
Ole Miss
Auburn
I'd rule out Auburn because the game is at BDS, and they don't have Cam Newton. EXCLUDING the Cam year, the following are the scores at BDS in the Saban Era.
2008- 36-0, W
2012, 49-0, W
2014, 55-44, W
2016, 30-12, W
2018, 52-12, W
2020, 42-13, W (Saban didn't coach this game)
Average Alabama MOV: 30.5 points
Throw in Auburn's other problems, and I just don't see it. If this was LAST YEAR in JHS? A reasonable candidate but not this time.
LSU? I do think Kelly is a good coach, but he's taking over a dumpster fire and has some serious PATSD with us. Not this year.
Texas? Nope, I'll never be sold on Texas for anything until they actually win another conference title (for starters).
MSU? Don't see it.
THE BIG THREE POSSIBILITIES
Arkansas - still not sold on these guys. Granted, Pittman seems to have a tremendous upside but despite a 9-4 record, they lost to Auburn last year (??) and needed OT to beat the imploding LSU Tigers. And they play Jimbo's boys the week before us, and reports say they could beat the 85 Bears' defense with the 99 Rams' offense.
Texas A/M - they think they destroyed our program forever last year because that's how imbeciles from this neck of the country think. We'll be out for blood and let's face it: they were lucky to win last year when we didn't even play all that well.
Ole Miss - the most likely toughest game in my view.
Well Ole Miss plays us right after we play LSU on the road - and they're off that week. And it's on the road. And they should have a decent record by that point in time that might make this a "do or die" game, especially for them. And Kiffin knows Saban's tendencies as well as anyone, plus he's nuttier than Les Miles with playcalling but more sane about WHEN to do it at the same time.
So I'd say Ole Miss.