My Analysis and Predictions

[GrayTide]

If we lose to Vandy in the second game, it's gonna be a long, miserable year. We badly need to finish September no worse than 3-2.

For what it's worth I agree. A lot of folks on here have stated that we may lose a game or two we all think we should win and also upset someone when we are a decided underdog. I think Vandy and Houston could be two teams that have a legitimate shot at beating us and I see UT and UGA as two teams we have a very good chance of upsetting. Conventional wisdom says we beat Vandy and Houston and lose to UGA and UT but this may turn out to be one of those seasons where strange things happen. My gut feel says we head into October 3-2 and much improved.

 

[ALA2262]

Yes. Why?

I made a prediction. I think the Tide will be much improved from a discipline (on the field) stand point due to CNS. But I think the Def will be a major weakness until he gets the players in.

Then you didn't pay much attention to my post at #9.

 

[ALA2262]

I think you misunderstood the intent of my post. The guy who started the thread predicted that we would lose to Vandy but then go on to have a big 10-win year. I was simply trying to take issue with him. I don't expect a loss to Vandy, but if we were to lose that one, I think we'll finish 6-6 or worse.

Since you didn't reference the original post in your reply, I certainly did misunderstand the intent of your post. I apoligize.

 

[ALLVOL]

Then you didn't pay much attention to my post at #9.

I was just making a prediction of my own. If that is not what this thread was about then my bad.

 

[ALA2262]

I was just making a prediction of my own. If that is not wha this thread was about then my bad.

I could predict that ut is going to lose 6 games also. But that would be as stupid as your prediction.

 

[cmmiller711]

9-4, not 12-2. That is next year. AND THEN 2009(look at the schedule if you doubt me) 14-0!!! NC number whatever they want to call it.

i cant seem to find the 09 schedule...enlighten me.

EDIT: I can look at the 2008 schedule and tell we got FIU, Arkansas, @ kentucky, @ Ole miss, Tennesse, @ mississippi state, LSU, @ auburn.... but who is our other East opponent and do we have any other OOC games lined up?

 

[bamabryan]

This is by no means a flame. I think you guys will have a tough year looking at your schedule. I have you losing to the following this year but being much better in the near future. But this years losses will be.
Arky
FSU
UT
UGA
LSU
AUB.

JMHO, but I say we will beat Arkansas and UT.

I also, think we will lose a game most people count on Bama winning.

 

[rgw]

I think the Vols and Hogs have the biggest dud potential of any top 25 SEC team. Nutt ran off the guy who helped make McFadden and Felix Jones near unstoppable with spread misdirection. Almost every play they ran forced the opponent to respect McFadden inside or Jones outside. Now they have a guy who is probably going to run a pro-set look and go away from a running formula that was working. The Vols have nothing proven at the skill positions outside of their QB - who tends to make too many mistakes in big games - and the TE (and it ain't like they have the next Witten).

UT is in a better position because their defense will be elite, but I think they'll lose to UF and UGA and could lose UK and USC games. They should beat Bama, but again...Alabama has them at home and our offense could give them fits if UT's offense tanks.

 

[ALA2262]

i cant seem to find the 09 schedule...enlighten me.

EDIT: I can look at the 2008 schedule and tell we got FIU, Arkansas, @ kentucky, @ Ole miss, Tennesse, @ mississippi state, LSU, @ auburn.... but who is our other East opponent and do we have any other OOC games lined up?

The odd years are the most favorable schedule wise as far as West division opponents go and the permanent East division team(ut). There are 5 different scenarios on the East division rotating schedule, and to me the most favorable of the 5 is "@ Kentucky and South Carolina at home". That occurs in 2009. The Penn State series does not begin until 2010. At this time Florida International is the only OOC game scheduled. I don't think Texas will be interested in the neutral site game being talked about until 2012. Just looks real good as of now. Here's the SEC rotating schedule link.

http://www.secsports.com/index.php?s=&change_well_id=2&url_article_id=317

Here's the Bama future schedule link.

http://nationalchamps.net/NCAA/future_schedules/alabama_future.htm

 

[ALLVOL]

I think the Vols and Hogs have the biggest dud potential of any top 25 SEC team. Nutt ran off the guy who helped make McFadden and Felix Jones near unstoppable with spread misdirection. Almost every play they ran forced the opponent to respect McFadden inside or Jones outside. Now they have a guy who is probably going to run a pro-set look and go away from a running formula that was working. The Vols have nothing proven at the skill positions outside of their QB - who tends to make too many mistakes in big games - and the TE (and it ain't like they have the next Witten).

UT is in a better position because their defense will be elite, but I think they'll lose to UF and UGA and could lose UK and USC games. They should beat Bama, but again...Alabama has them at home and our offense could give them fits if UT's offense tanks.

I have to laugh at that. If you think Ark will not run the ball you are wrong. They have the best rb duo and it's not even close.

 

[rgw]

I have to laugh at that. If you think Ark will not run the ball you are wrong. They have the best rb duo and it's not even close.

Well the reason they were able to run all over teams last year despite no passing game - even with Monk - was because of a wonderful spread scheme that forced the opponent's defense to wait until the play fully developed before they could pursue. If they aren't going to do the same this year - which could be the case since they hired a guy out of the NFL - I don't expect them to be as productive without Monk early in the season. And not to mention: they're replacing most of their offensive line. Last year was an aberration for Nutt...the defense wasn't completely soft and they were able to get away with seemingly not even coaching the forward pass. I'm very sure about this...I wouldn't be putting my foot down on it otherwise.

The UT assessment is more of a reach...but it is a possibility considering that UT has so many question marks at the skill positions. The Vols are just one of those teams who could as easily win the SEC as they could fail to live up to expectations because of all the turnover at key positions.

 

[ALLVOL]

Well the reason they were able to run all over teams last year despite no passing game - even with Monk - was because of a wonderful spread scheme that forced the opponent's defense to wait until the play fully developed before they could pursue. If they aren't going to do the same this year - which could be the case since they hired a guy out of the NFL - I don't expect them to be as productive without Monk early in the season. And not to mention: they're replacing most of their offensive line. Last year was an aberration for Nutt...the defense wasn't completely soft and they were able to get away with seemingly not even coaching the forward pass. I'm very sure about this...I wouldn't be putting my foot down on it otherwise.

The UT assessment is more of a reach...but it is a possibility considering that UT has so many question marks at the skill positions. The Vols are just one of those teams who could as easily win the SEC as they could fail to live up to expectations because of all the turnover at key positions.

I think you maybe in over your head here. The reasons Arky ran the ball so well first and foremost is Darren McFadden is the best back we have seen in the SEC since Bo Jackson and it's not even close. Second is the package they ran is called the wild cat and they have been running it all spring and this fall practices.
UT lost WR's. Pretty much every other skill position has returning starters.

 

[bamabryan]

Arkansas is a train wreck waiting to happen.

Yes they have the best RB duo in the nation, but this is a team that has been through a lot of off-the field stuff since last year and is on the verge of imploding.

Bama will beat Arkansas this year. Don't be surprised if this it Nutt's last year at Arkansas.

 

[ALLVOL]

Arkansas is a train wreck waiting to happen.

Yes they have the best RB duo in the nation, but this is a team that has been through a lot of off-the field stuff since last year and is on the verge of imploding.

Bama will beat Arkansas this year. Don't be surprised if this it Nutt's last year at Arkansas.

The off the field stuff is the big question I agree. But it can actually bring a team together. It will be interesting to watch them this year.

 

[BEATtutorsee]

I think you misunderstood the intent of my post. The guy who started the thread predicted that we would lose to Vandy but then go on to have a big 10-win year. I was simply trying to take issue with him. I don't expect a loss to Vandy, but if we were to lose that one, I think we'll finish 6-6 or worse.

I think that would be pretty good logic if the previous staff were still in town, but I don't see this team progressively getting worse as the season progresses or going into a tailspin because of an early season loss. JMO. I do believe however that both the Vandy and Arky games will be very important for this team. Losses to either or both won't necessarily doom the season IMHO (it's possible but I don't believe it'll cause that) but wins against both could springboard this team to a 9 win or better season. I think (barring any significant injuries) this team will be much better towards the end of the season than it will be at the beginning.

 

[bayoutider]

Let's keep the remarks civil. We have this rule here, I think it is something about "Ignorant sparring between members".

 

[rgw]

I think you maybe in over your head here. The reasons Arky ran the ball so well first and foremost is Darren McFadden is the best back we have seen in the SEC since Bo Jackson and it's not even close. Second is the package they ran is called the wild cat and they have been running it all spring and this fall practices.
UT lost WR's. Pretty much every other skill position has returning starters.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I just don't see a team winning many games with all the off-season hoopla, a defense that has only been good one season (last year when they had a bunch of seniors), and question marks on the OL, WR, and QB even if they had Jesus Christ at tailback.

 

[ALLVOL]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I just don't see a team winning many games with all the off-season hoopla, a defense that has only been good one season (last year when they had a bunch of seniors), and question marks on the OL, WR, and QB even if they had Jesus Christ at tailback.

We can disagree. That is one of the many great things about living in this country. One thing I'm sure we all agree on. I AM READY FOR FOOTBALL!

 

[gator]

I just can't see ARK being much of a threat this year. In my opinion they lost too many of the complimentary pieces (especially now with Monk being sidelined) and are going to have a rough time. If I turn out to be wrong on this it will likely be because they figured out how to effectively use their 2nd RB alongside McFadden to keep the D guessing enough to open up some space (probably shjould have said more effectively as they did a good job at times last year).

On the other hand, if they would have come out against AL last year with a pound it out gameplan (like they learned to do shortly thereafter)I don't think it would have been near as close. Perhaps having an all or nothing game plan will prove to be effective.

Whwen it is all said and done, I think NS can handle this one. It is some of the more balanced teams that will force him to take chances here and there that could swing a game either way.

 

[rgw]

I just can't see ARK being much of a threat this year. In my opinion they lost too many of the complimentary pieces (especially now with Monk being sidelined) and are going to have a rough time. If I turn out to be wrong on this it will likely be because they figured out how to effectively use their 2nd RB alongside McFadden to keep the D guessing enough to open up some space (probably shjould have said more effectively as they did a good job at times last year).

On the other hand, if they would have come out against AL last year with a pound it out gameplan (like they learned to do shortly thereafter)I don't think it would have been near as close. Perhaps having an all or nothing game plan will prove to be effective.

Whwen it is all said and done, I think NS can handle this one. It is some of the more balanced teams that will force him to take chances here and there that could swing a game either way.

Looking at our schedule, I think Arkansas will be our biggest win. We're catching them at the right time with a new coordinator, injuries, and new players at many positions and I think Saban's defense will be able to stop a team who you know is only capable of doing one thing no matter what kind of talent they have with that "one thing". Jones and McFadden are great, but last year was a perfect storm for Nutt more than anything else.

My Predictions:
Western Carolina - W
Vanderbilt - W
Arkansas - W
Georgia - L (Upset potential, UGA's first road test)
Florida State - L
Houston (HC) - W
Ole Miss - W
Tennessee - L (Upset potential, Rivalry all-bets-off sort of thing)
LSU - L
Mississippi State - W
Louisiana-Monroe - W
Auburn - L (Upset potential, again a Rivalry)

Final Regular Season Record: 7-5

I think we have three games that we should lose but could win because of the circumstances behind the game. I think FSU and LSU are pretty solid Ls. FSU's defense will be able to cause enough problems that our defense will get exploited. LSU is a far superior team. Vandy is our early season landmine game, but I think our offense will win in a shoot-out.