NSNP: Market "crash"

Another buying opportunity today?

Nobody knows nothing ;) My own personal opinion is that the bottom is still out there. However, anyone having free cash in abundance might jump in at these prices and be OK w/ it because when it truly starts to go up it's gonna rocket IMHO. But who knows when that will be? Like I said, nobody knows nothing and that rocket could take off over any really positive news on the virus front (i.e. #'s going down, immunization approved, etc etc etc.) All of the monetary and fiscal policy angles now are to "just make it tolerable until we get past the next 60-90 days of virus spreading." If the virus remains hugely impactful and there's an enduring economic shutdown through the summer months, all bets are off.

But, I know nothing!
 
If Saudis or Russians turn off the oil spigots, there may be a positive reaction. Right now we're getting double whammed and there is no available 'flight to safety' other than cashing out which brings its own risks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: B1GTide
I don't think this will be over anytime soon even though the so-called "experts" think it will. A very unique bear market. First one caused by a pandemic and the collapse in oil added to the problem. The country hasn't shut down this much since the Great Depression when the market declined 90+%. Throwing trillions of dollars at the problem may help businesses stay afloat but obviously won't get rid of the virus so the market continues down. The market may pop after the number of new cases declines but then there's a concern of a second wave. Bear markets happen an average of 1 every 5 years but this has been 11 years so the fall could be very hard. The last two have been 50%+ declines so I'm expecting at least that here.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BamaNation
When supply is a problem it has to be addressed. Same for labor or any other critical factor. You have to solve the underlying problem. When that happens, even just mitigation, the market will find its floor. I am not a financial expert, but though it's debatable I do have a little sense. Uncertainty is the primary problem.
 
  • Like
Reactions: B1GTide
When supply is a problem it has to be addressed. Same for labor or any other critical factor. You have to solve the underlying problem. When that happens, even just mitigation, the market will find its floor. I am not a financial expert, but though it's debatable I do have a little sense. Uncertainty is the primary problem.

I’ve been saying that so much, people are starting to finish the sentence for me.

The financial markets don’t like bad news, but they can handle it. What they can’t handle is uncertainty, and we have a lot of that right now.

But I repeat my earlier statements.....if you‘re 10 or more years from retirement, you have a golden opportunity to make a bunch of money. Keep piling it in. About now is when bonuses get paid. Use them to buy up at bargain prices. Keep socking away as much as you can in the 401k.

I agree with BamaNation that we may not have hit bottom, but we’re somewhere close. Your 65-year-old self will thank your 2020 self profusely.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GrayTide
My specific hope and prayer for all of this is that extended and more widespread testing will show us that the drastic actions taken so far are working and that over next 2-4 weeks we can see the benefits of that even if the economic burden is incredibly heavy and growing right now. The long-term job losses will be a huge negative, but if we lessen the uncertainty, the market will at least stabilize.

Futures Market went max down 5% pretty much at open at 6p EST tonight (Sunday 3/22). Doesn't bode well for open tomorrow. :(

We need some good news and a stream of things like "newly discovered vaccination works and will be rolled out by June, drug found that kills virus in active cases (or drastically minimizes symptoms), cheap ventilators being manufactured by Tesla, the 45 minute test is now available everywhere, etc etc etc., political leaders put aside politics to come up with smart solutions," (ok, not really expecting that last one but this was about hoping and praying !) :D

I'm not much on technical analysis because it's all about looking backward but in past 50 years when 50day trend goes below 200 day trend during recession markets, you're near the bottom. That is happening now so there's that. This has happened so fast it's mind blowing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: B1GTide
My gut says we are nowhere close to the bottom. There is so much uncertainty we don’t know about yet. We have no point of reference for what happens when the shelter in place order is given for the majority of the states and IMO that’s just a couple of weeks away or sooner. I realize this is NSNP, but the only people who seem to have confidence right now are the people who trust the president and their eyes will be opened soon to the stark reality of how devastating this pandemic is. Restaurants, hair salons, entertainment industry, sports industry, transportation, hotels, dentistry etc. are all crippled. With this much uncertainty, I don’t know why anyone will be investing. I understand we will eventually come out of this, but I don’t see the end in sight. There is no historical precedent for what we are about to face.
 
The biggest decision in this whole crisis may be when to send people back to work. I fear if America remains shut down until the peak is reached, which could be many weeks away then we have a Great Depression 2.0 and a market decline of 70%+. If America goes back to work sooner the economy may be saved but more people may become infected and die. I'm glad I'm not making that decision.
 
At this point the market is up nearly 10% today. IMO, we need to discourage the gambling part of the market and encourage the investing part of the market. If you want to gamble, that's what Vegas is for.
 
At this point the market is up nearly 10% today. IMO, we need to discourage the gambling part of the market and encourage the investing part of the market. If you want to gamble, that's what Vegas is for.
I have always thought that day trading should be illegal
 
Probably difficult to outlaw outright but taxing profits highly and writing off losses lightly (or not at all) could be an answer.
Day traders manipulate market prices all day every day for profit. Not sure why we should be allowing that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bamaro
An argument for keeping them (daytraders) is they can provide needed buyers/sellers on both sides of the equation. Puts, calls, longs, shorts, leverage, etc.

Not saying I encourage it. In fact, I have a lot of students who daytrade with 50-500 / day. they talk about it in class and if they make $100 they're happy. I always tell them, "you know what they call daytraders after a short period of time?" (what?) "Broke".

But a good friend of mine was an uber-successful daytrader on wall st. prior to 2000 dot bomb crash. Got out without losing his shirt. What he "played" with on a daily basis was mind-boggling. To him, it was like a video game that he had the perfect skillsets for. Analyzing trends, making quick decisions, being emotionless up or down, knowing when hold or fold, etc.
 
  • Like
Reactions: B1GTide
An argument for keeping them (daytraders) is they can provide needed buyers/sellers on both sides of the equation. Puts, calls, longs, shorts, leverage, etc.

Not saying I encourage it. In fact, I have a lot of students who daytrade with 50-500 / day. they talk about it in class and if they make $100 they're happy. I always tell them, "you know what they call daytraders after a short period of time?" (what?) "Broke".

But a good friend of mine was an uber-successful daytrader on wall st. prior to 2000 dot bomb crash. Got out without losing his shirt. What he "played" with on a daily basis was mind-boggling. To him, it was like a video game that he had the perfect skillsets for. Analyzing trends, making quick decisions, being emotionless up or down, knowing when hold or fold, etc.
Call me crazy, but I also think that short selling should be illegal. If you want integrity in the market, people should only be able to get in or out.
 
Call me crazy, but I also think that short selling should be illegal. If you want integrity in the market, people should only be able to get in or out.

Slippery slope there, BIG.

Day traders provide liquidity. They perform the same service that arbitrageurs (arbs) provide in commodity markets. They stand ready to buy at a tick below market, and sell at a tick above, and do it any time, under any circumstances. There's benefit to the whole market there.

Regarding short sales: A short seller could be gambling. Or they could be hedging....locking in a selling price on shares that aren't theirs yet.

Consider my own situation about 15 months ago. You have some stock grants vesting in a few months, but they aren't yours yet. You plan to sell them to finance your health insurance premiums between now and when you qualify for Medicare. Today's price will cover you totally. But who knows what the price will be when they vest?

A ban on short selling would legally prohibit a transaction that benefits everybody.

Also, just curious....if you would outlaw short sales, would you also outlaw put options? If so, you outlaw a source of stability. What about calls? If so, you outlaw a great source of income for people who own stock....including but not limited to lots and lots of retirees.

Probably difficult to outlaw outright but taxing profits highly and writing off losses lightly (or not at all) could be an answer.

Simultaneously tax profits heavily and minimize or eliminate writeoffs for losses? Translation: If you win, we're going to take most of your winnings. But if you lose, well, that's on you.

Not much upside, but a lot of downside.

Given that proposition, why would anybody buy at all? It keeps people out of the market altogether, and undermines the fundamental advantages of every 401k and IRA that isn't in cash or bonds.

I can't think of a better way to both (1) deny the masses access to the greatest long-term money-making machine in the history of man, and (2) bollux up liquidity, and make it difficult or impossible for those who do own shares for the long haul (as you wish them to do) to convert holdings to cash....because, again, who would they sell to? Who would buy at all under that risk / reward proposition?

Put another way, that just killed the whole concept of a stock market.
 
Last edited:
Yes, I would. Don't really care. Buy a stock because you want to own it or get out of the market.
 

New Posts

Advertisement

Trending content

Advertisement

Latest threads