ESPN's Bubble Watch, a projection of the teams vying for bids into the
2025 men's college basketball tournament, launched a little over a week ago, and we heard your feedback about some teams that were too high in
ESPN Analytics' BPI forecast (ahem,
North Carolina) and others that might not have been receiving odds reflective of their quality wins (see,
Louisville).
You'll notice that Wednesday's version of Bubble Watch -- a file we've been updating and will continue to do so from now until Selection Sunday on March 16 -- looks a bit different, with new odds and a few teams that moved into different tiers. Upon further investigation, ESPN Analytics discovered there was an issue within the BPI forecast that affected the way the model was processing each team's chances, including the way it was taking in NET data in order to generate quad wins/losses.
ESPN Analytics has corrected the data. In the previous column update, 22 teams were listed as locks and 38 total teams were listed as on the bubble. Now there are 29 teams that are locks -- including Louisville,
Maryland and
Memphis -- and 29 teams on the bubble. (This includes UNC, which is now holding on for its tourney life.) Other teams that had previously been on the bubble -- most notably
Northwestern,
Iowa and
Villanova -- are now absent, having dropped below the probability threshold in the updated model.
We realize these are big changes, and we apologize for the inconvenience. Our hope is you'll bookmark and follow along with every odds change as we look ahead to less than a month until the conference tournaments tip off -- and just a little longer than that before Selection Sunday.