On This Date 6 Years Ago (SEC Expansion)

Took me a bit to find it because the page no longer exists as best I can tell, but it was MrSEC dot com.

This was his take on the contenders in October, 2011 (courtesy of the way back machine):

https://web.archive.org/web/2011101...10/expansion-by-the-numbers-10-the-big-finish

Pretty good breakdown of some of the major factors. IIRC, he did another iteration of this in 2010 with somewhat different results.

I'll say, without the benefit of a link just now to prove it, that the OU talk happened in the middle of 2010 - long before Mizzou became a serious contender. It seemed serious but fizzled and was then denied altogether. The SEC likely wanted both UT and OU, but that was not happening because UT didn't want it and OU bows to UT. IIRC, Mizzou was spurned by the Big Ten when Nebraska left.

Both aTm and Mizzou had to negotiate exit fees with the Big 12 as both were under contract.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/7019493/texas-aggies-officially-get-accepted-sec

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/...igers-move-sec-official-big-12-hurdles-remain

Both the SEC and the schools it chose did well in this round of expansion.

The SEC is likely ready to move when and if it has to do so but is ready to stand pat until it either gets who it wants or has to move due to market forces (like renewed cannibalism by the Big Ten or Pac 12). If the right schools in the right markets come calling all bets are off, though.

As much as I hate Texas and see them as a problem, the league probably would take them and OU but I doubt that happens. If a NC and/or VA school defected they would be in the hunt as well.

We likely have another 3-5 years before this all begins to heat up again, but who knows? The college landscape has changed so much. I know it will change more but sometimes I miss the "good ole days".

That said, I sure am enjoying this Dynasty thing Alabama has going.

1) that link said “ some reports ticketed Oklahoma to the SEC, but many called it nonsense” meaning it could’ve happened or it might’ve not. The only real evidence that it could’ve is the OU president. Keep in mind he wanted to go PAC 12 from the start, and it could’ve just trying to make OU look better. I think my biggest question of the legitimacy of the OU to the SEC claim 2010-11 is “ why if offered would they refuse more money, more power, and better TV deals than they will ever get with FOX and the LHN in the Big XII?” I come to two conclusions: 1) OU is the dumbest partners you could ever have and we are way better without their stupidity at conference calls or 2) the talks were never serious if they did happen. Which I believe they never happened prior to Mizzou’s invite DURING second wave of things. Might have happened in the first wave, but it didn’t happen in the second wave. But there is no way to prove anyone other than VT and aTm getting a REAL offer during the 2010 wave from the SEC unless you are hook line and sinker stuck on OU’s president’s account of the events.

2) the 2010 expansion talk is not the same as 2011 talk.


I lived in Nebraska from 2008-14. I knew many people in the know from Nebraska and a few from Missouri, and they were pretty dead on with the movement games. First and foremost, Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri never liked the move from the Big 8 to the Big 12 and felt UT and OU conned them into it. They believed Texas was hogging all the money .So when the time came up for renegotiation they were going to threaten to move. Colorado was always a known departure from the start so no one really raised an eyebrow. But the Big 10 started secret talks in early 2009 with Missouri, and somehow Nebraska got wind of it and started their own discussions. The inclusion of the Big 10 really made Nebraska and Missouri more open to actually moving to another conference than just threatening to do so. The problem with Nebraska having secret discussions is that 80% of Nebraskans get wind of it right away because no one can keep their mouth shut. The Big 10 was weighing both options but went with Nebraska because they weren’t under contract after summer of 2010, Mizzou would take another year. Nebraska by sources was just threatening the Omaha market for a way better deal from Texas, but the “jobbing” in the Big 12 Championship game in 2009 just sent the fans in a revolt that pretty much sealed their course of action.

Then you have your first mega play to the PAC 12 UT, TTU, OU, and Okie Lite. aTm played a wishy washy game with the PAC 12 and SEC. The SEC made an attempt on VT, but was turned down. Ultimately UT made a deal that kept things in place.

2011- aTm had enough of the temporary deal, and the LHN so they made a public declaration to jump to the SEC. Baylor tried to block it, but UT let them go with a buyout. So the SEC started a search for a second team and was turned down by WVU and by reports VT again, but Missouri was wanting to leave after all the crap they put up with in 2010 and the worsening of the LHN deal. They had the best markets on the board so the SEC took them.

These moves caused OU to play big boy politicians again, and tried to secure a deal with the PAC 12 again, who basically said “ Texas and you with no Okie Lite or you forget it”. Oklahoma got stuck overplaying their hand and had to bow at the burnt cow’s hooves again.

Point is the 2010 conversation was old wounds from the Big 8 elites against Texas that ultimately led to an exodus of some lucrative markets and a late push by a divided aTm BOT that ultimately led to the SEC scrambling to find another team to be a companion. Ultimately Texas saved the conference for one more year with a flimsy deal. The 2011 was a more direct approach where aTm put on their big boy pants and openly declared their intentions due to the LHN. Missouri was more of an added market deal that the SEC was wanting. The SEC in 2011 was more focused on building markets and not reacting to chaos like they were in 2010. I believe there were talks in their summer meetings about how they would handle chaos in the future.
 
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Not a fan of either expansion team. I have no idea of league finances, hopefully they have added something to the bottom line.

Both A&M and Missouri add major markets to the SEC footprint.

  • The SEC had 9 top 50 (as of Jan 2018) markets whose avg rank is 28: Atlanta 9, Tampa 13, Miami 16, Orlando 18, Nashville 27, West Palm Beach 37, Green S.C. 38, Bham 44 (.69 hh), Memphis 50. These were worth approx 11.43 mil households.
  • They added 5 whose avg rank is 19.4: Dallas 5, Houston 7, St. Louis 21, San Antonio 31, Kansas City 33. Approx 8.13 mil households
  • Top 51-100 markets the SEC had 15 for 6.22 households, including Mobile-Pens 59 (.52 hh) and Huntsville 80 (.37 hh). For those wondering Mont 124 (.22 hh)
  • They added 3 for 1.06 mil households. Springfield Mo 75, Waco Tx 86, El Paso Tx 93.
  • In summary, the SEC doubled its number of top 33 markets from 5 to 10. It added 9.19 mil households to 17.65. That's an increase of 52%. Texas and Mo now comprise 42% of the SEC's top 50 TV market households and 34% of it's top 100.
  • Note: until A&M and Mo were added, we see how dependent the SEC was on the state of Florida and Atlanta for its footprint.
  • Footprint and eyeballs are two different things. There the effect is not as great and more difficult to determine (don't have the time). But both footprint and eyeballs have their place according to the issue. Others here know more about that.
Also, Bama at least, has benefitted tremendously in recruiting. Texas is now the 3rd greatest contributor of out of state talent, behind only La. and Fl. They have far outstripped Ga, Miss and Tenn as far as both "contributing" and potential talent. In fact, they have provided more than double those 3 states combined since 2013.
 
Missouri and Texas were the two best states to move into, and the best of the realistic possibilities. The only other two really desirable locations would be Virginia and North Carolina. The only real issue with the expansion is it ended up creating further imbalance between the divisions (the truth is Missouri should be swapped for Auburn).
 
1) that link said “ some reports ticketed Oklahoma to the SEC, but many called it nonsense” meaning it could’ve happened or it might’ve not. The only real evidence that it could’ve is the OU president. Keep in mind he wanted to go PAC 12 from the start, and it could’ve just trying to make OU look better. I think my biggest question of the legitimacy of the OU to the SEC claim 2010-11 is “ why if offered would they refuse more money, more power, and better TV deals than they will ever get with FOX and the LHN in the Big XII?” I come to two conclusions: 1) OU is the dumbest partners you could ever have and we are way better without their stupidity at conference calls or 2) the talks were never serious if they did happen. Which I believe they never happened prior to Mizzou’s invite DURING second wave of things. Might have happened in the first wave, but it didn’t happen in the second wave. But there is no way to prove anyone other than VT and aTm getting a REAL offer during the 2010 wave from the SEC unless you are hook line and sinker stuck on OU’s president’s account of the events.

2) the 2010 expansion talk is not the same as 2011 talk.


I lived in Nebraska from 2008-14. I knew many people in the know from Nebraska and a few from Missouri, and they were pretty dead on with the movement games. First and foremost, Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri never liked the move from the Big 8 to the Big 12 and felt UT and OU conned them into it. They believed Texas was hogging all the money .So when the time came up for renegotiation they were going to threaten to move. Colorado was always a known departure from the start so no one really raised an eyebrow. But the Big 10 started secret talks in early 2009 with Missouri, and somehow Nebraska got wind of it and started their own discussions. The inclusion of the Big 10 really made Nebraska and Missouri more open to actually moving to another conference than just threatening to do so. The problem with Nebraska having secret discussions is that 80% of Nebraskans get wind of it right away because no one can keep their mouth shut. The Big 10 was weighing both options but went with Nebraska because they weren’t under contract after summer of 2010, Mizzou would take another year. Nebraska by sources was just threatening the Omaha market for a way better deal from Texas, but the “jobbing” in the Big 12 Championship game in 2009 just sent the fans in a revolt that pretty much sealed their course of action.

Then you have your first mega play to the PAC 12 UT, TTU, OU, and Okie Lite. aTm played a wishy washy game with the PAC 12 and SEC. The SEC made an attempt on VT, but was turned down. Ultimately UT made a deal that kept things in place.

2011- aTm had enough of the temporary deal, and the LHN so they made a public declaration to jump to the SEC. Baylor tried to block it, but UT let them go with a buyout. So the SEC started a search for a second team and was turned down by WVU and by reports VT again, but Missouri was wanting to leave after all the crap they put up with in 2010 and the worsening of the LHN deal. They had the best markets on the board so the SEC took them.

These moves caused OU to play big boy politicians again, and tried to secure a deal with the PAC 12 again, who basically said “ Texas and you with no Okie Lite or you forget it”. Oklahoma got stuck overplaying their hand and had to bow at the burnt cow’s hooves again.

Point is the 2010 conversation was old wounds from the Big 8 elites against Texas that ultimately led to an exodus of some lucrative markets and a late push by a divided aTm BOT that ultimately led to the SEC scrambling to find another team to be a companion. Ultimately Texas saved the conference for one more year with a flimsy deal. The 2011 was a more direct approach where aTm put on their big boy pants and openly declared their intentions due to the LHN. Missouri was more of an added market deal that the SEC was wanting. The SEC in 2011 was more focused on building markets and not reacting to chaos like they were in 2010. I believe there were talks in their summer meetings about how they would handle chaos in the future.

Thats a nice post but WV was turned down by the SEC and the ACC. With both being desperate, the Big 12 and WV made a deal.
 
This ^^^

The LOGICAL alignment of the SEC would be to move the booger-eaters to the East and Mizzou to the West. But it will never happen for a multitude of reasons, most significantly that the UA-barn game is a major CASH COW for the conference, the TV networks, and for both schools - none of whom would ever consent to moving or discontinuing the annual cash bonanza.

But in fairness, the school that got shafted more than ANY other SEC school back in 1992 with the first expansion was the barn. Prior to 1992, the barn's most frequent SEC Opponents were UGa, Tenn and UF. aub very seldom played LSu or Ole Miss - just as we only seldom played UGa or UF.

You are right, awbern has historical been an "Eastern" division team...
 
Still miss when the SEC was just 12.


The artist formerly known as JBama_in_PCOLA

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Heck, as much as I love the SECC Game, and I love it a LOT (Lately - but not so much in the mid-90's ;) ), I still think the SEC was a better conference when we were TEN teams.

Harvey Schiller conceived a GREAT PLAN to make MONEY, and it's worked like a charm. No question, the "Old" SEC would be a dinosaur in today's world of CFB. But the reality is that in 1991 we went after Miami and FRU in the East - and Settled for USCe; And in the West we went after Texas and aTm - and Settled for Arkansas. Neither has added anything, really, to the overall quality of the conference from either an athletic OR Academic standpoint.... Unless you love track or baseball....

The expansion in 2012 was a "Great Success"...... for the Accountants, the TV networks, and the Greedy University Presidents and AD's. aTm is a "win" beyond the dollar signs and TV sets, I suppose, in the sense of the recruiting impacts.... but Mizzou is just a Midwest version of USCe. And a University that only accepted our bid because they were spurned by their true love - the B1G. :frown:

Yes, the SEC "made money". And these days, that's ALL that matters in CFB.....


SECFamily.jpg
 
Heck, as much as I love the SECC Game, and I love it a LOT (Lately - but not so much in the mid-90's ;) ), I still think the SEC was a better conference when we were TEN teams.

Harvey Schiller conceived a GREAT PLAN to make MONEY, and it's worked like a charm. No question, the "Old" SEC would be a dinosaur in today's world of CFB. But the reality is that in 1991 we went after Miami and FRU in the East - and Settled for USCe; And in the West we went after Texas and aTm - and Settled for Arkansas. Neither has added anything, really, to the overall quality of the conference from either an athletic OR Academic standpoint.... Unless you love track or baseball....

The expansion in 2012 was a "Great Success"...... for the Accountants, the TV networks, and the Greedy University Presidents and AD's. aTm is a "win" beyond the dollar signs and TV sets, I suppose, in the sense of the recruiting impacts.... but Mizzou is just a Midwest version of USCe. And a University that only accepted our bid because they were spurned by their true love - the B1G. :frown:

Yes, the SEC "made money". And these days, that's ALL that matters in CFB.....


SECFamily.jpg

Yeah but how many times has having a championship helped the SEC in winning a national championship. I can count quite a few compared to one costing us one ( even if it was Tennessee losing.)
 
I still prefer the 10 team conference I grew up with, but was okay with adding USCe and Arkansas. Don't care much for the addition of TAMU and Missouri but no one asked my opinion. I would have been okay with adding TAMU if the SEC booted Vanderbilt.
 
Yeah but how many times has having a championship helped the SEC in winning a national championship. I can count quite a few compared to one costing us one ( even if it was Tennessee losing.)

Pretty sure it hurt us in 1994. But you are right that it has helped us(the SEC) more often than not.
 
Pretty sure it hurt us in 1994. But you are right that it has helped us(the SEC) more often than not.

It neither helped nor hurt us for a NC in 94. We weren’t getting in. I used to think it did but after Selma’s thread on 94 and many discussions on it I think they weren’t going to deny a Miami vs Nebraska game.

01 is the only clear example of it hurting an SEC team unless you count 08, 09, and 12
 
Pretty sure it hurt us in 1994. But you are right that it has helped us(the SEC) more often than not.

Even if Bama had been undefeated, they have finished third behind Neb and PSU who were also undefeated and both more highly regarded and ranked.
 
But the reality is that in 1991 we went after Miami and FRU in the East - and Settled for USCe; And in the West we went after Texas and aTm - and Settled for Arkansas. Neither has added anything, really, to the overall quality of the conference from either an athletic OR Academic standpoint.... Unless you love track or baseball....
This is one of those cases where the SEC accidentally got it right. If the SEC had added two juggernauts to the 12 team field it would have produced devastating on field results. Consider this, Florida, and Tennessee are still trying to find their way, in a kinder, gentler SEC East. How the heck would they manage if for instance some people's dream additions of Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and FSU had come to pass? It would be Armageddon on the football field. I seriously doubt we'd be counting this high when we discuss Alabama championships either.

And that gets into why it was a success. Not just financially, the best possible expansion enriches the existing schools with the least amount of disruption. The SEC ran off a string of BCS championships, and they have the expansion to thank for that, it set the conference up perfectly, financially and in terms of the right balance. The second expansion was a big trickier, since it further imbalanced the divisions, but otherwise it followed a similar mold, which is make the existing programs richer, and not just in money mind you, in recruiting prowess.

Let's make a couple of head to head comparisons for the sake of argument. Texas or Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M. What does Texas or Oklahoma really offer that A&M doesn't? Not much, if you argue they are a better football program, I'd point out the SEC West already had good football programs, so someone still had to be 4th in the SEC West, no matter what. I'd argue Oklahoma in particular was just worse all the way around, there's no advantage there at all. How about FSU vs. Missouri? The SEC is already strong in the state of Florida, they already are tapping the state for recruits and dollars, FSU is a bit redundant. On the other hand, at least Missouri opened up untapped land.

Past some point adding football powers on top of football powers becomes like an NFL team using up their cap space on a third string QB. No matter how good your QBs are, you can still only play one at a time anyway... better to focus on other things.
 
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