Really, unless we just fall apart defensively, I just can't even fathom a way we lose it. I don't want the team thinking this way, of course, but we can, can't we?
As you say, don't want the team thinking that way, and agreed that we CAN think that way. The question is: SHOULD we? Of course, I walk up the steps to my seat every week expecting Alabama to win. But if I were so sacrilegious as to sully the purity that is Alabama football by actually BETTING on a game ... this one is basically a "pick 'em" IMHO.
The Hogs are so-so on defense, but although the running game has been a refreshing surprise, Bama's "high-octane" (per pre-season predictions) passing game has struggled, as discussed in other threads. The Hogs are one-dimensional on offense, but - OH! - what a dimension it is. More importantly, Bama's defense is patchwork - and perilously thin - in the two groups necessary to stop a strong running game: DL and LB. Bama has some outstanding newcomers at these positions, but as a group, the Front Seven (or Six or Eight) are inexperienced and learning a new system. More importantly, there isn't much depth to speak of behind the starters.
He who controls the clock wins this game. Bama must play superlative defense - and EARLY - against the run (not just avoid a meltdown). The offense must put together long, sustained drives, AND score TD's, keeping McFadden & Co. off the field, and forcing Arkansas to win with the pass. If Bama fails to control the clock, Arkansas won't abandon the run, and the Tide's defensive front will be playing hands-on-hips early in the fourth quarter.
This has the makings of a heart-wrenchingly close game: Bama's better offensive balance and (marginally) better defense and special teams vs. Arkansas' excellent running attack and the trickeration from their Wildcat Package.
See y'all at BDS on Sat. night! I'll be the intoxicated guy in the white shirt and crimson hat.
