Game Thread: Super Bowl LVI: Cincinnati Bengals vs LA Rams (630 EST Kickoff)

[uafan4life]

It is no different than an actor pretending they are dumb.

It is very different than an actor portraying a character.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I mean I have to honestly ask if Stafford is better than Phillip Rivers because he has a Super Bowl, and the answer always comes back “no”. You could really make the argument that Rivers would have had multiple if not for Brady and the Patriots standing in his way. Everyone is going to use the Lions argument for Stafford, but when you factor in that guys like Mark Sanchez (tie now ) and Baker Mayfield had more playoff wins going into this years playoffs than Stafford then you realize that at some point those constant top 5 picks have to eventually pay off with playoff appearances and a few wins. I mean yes playoff wins shouldn’t be a deciding argument to a HOF career but now we are using one SB win to fast pass a guy to the HOF who had only played 3 playoff games in 12 years in the league.

Stafford deserves the HOF more than Eli, but he isn’t a head liner if he retires now. I mean I don’t even think Ben Roethlisberger is a first ballot since Brady just retired in the same season. Stafford is probably looking at 2-3 HOF classes after he is eligible before going. But that is only because the Super Bowl boosts him there. Otherwise he is more of a 4-7 ballot guy. I don’t think 1 season on a team that bought a super bowl championship changes the previous 12 years of just an above average career.

Let's look at it like this - what should be the criteria for determining a Hall of Famer?
And does Stafford meet that criteria?

And then let's remember that we're looking in two directions:
a) how he compares to the players OF HIS TIME
b) how he compares against players of ALL-TIME

What should the Hall be? The top 10% at each position? The top 20%? No, we can't have the Tom Brady standard any more than we can have the Babe Ruth standard in baseball. The top 20% of QBs in the NFL means Stafford would have to be one of the 8 best QBs in the league year-in and year-out for at least most of his career.

Does he actually qualify on that count?

We'll start his career with the 2011 season, his first as a full-time starter. Who would we rank each year as the top four (the top 10%) of QBs in the NFL in each season? Now when I assess this, you can't seize on ONE STAT to make the case.

2011 - Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford (Peyton missed 2011)
2012 - Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton (next 4? Stafford, Ryan, Romo, tossup)
2013 - Brady, Brees, Peyton, tossup of Rivers/Ryan/Stafford (Rodgers missed 7 games)
2014 - Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton (Ryan/Luck/Rivers/Stafford)
2015 - Brady, Brees, C Palmer, Eli (Rodgers had bad year, Peyton hurt; Stafford in next tier)
2016 - Brady, Brees, Rodgers, M Ryan (Brady's stats are low due to the 4-game deflate suspension)
2017 - Brady, Brees, Stafford, Rivers (Rodgers missed 9 games)
2018 - Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben (next 4? Mahomes, Goff, Rivers, Ryan maybe)*
2019 - Brady, Rodgers, R Wilson, Mahomes (Brees missed 5 games and is still in the top 8)*
2020 - Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Mahomes (Stafford is probably not in the top 8)
2021 - Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Stafford

* - Stafford had a bad year in 2018 and only played 1/2 of 2019. It is debatable whether he would rate in the top 8 QBs in 2020 because DeShaun Watson had better stats, Matt Ryan's look better, and Josh Allen came of age. Plus, you probably wouldn't take him over Wilson or Rivers that year, either.

So what do we have?

Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton Manning are all unquestioned HOFers. Mahomes is if he continues to produce (he MIGHT be if he never played again, but that's debatable). So it's safe to say that the only times Matthew Stafford has been in the top 10% in the league were years the other elite superstars were injured - and in all cases, he was the fourth best at best.

Now for those who want to play the "let me quote you the stats from a particular year" game, that's not how it works. Sure, Matthew Stafford might have had a better year than Brees or Rodgers or Brady a time or two. But the point is that none of those teams would have traded those stars 1-for-1 for Stafford. This evaluation is a lot like the CFP - just because Team A has a tougher SOS doesn't mean they're automatically better.

However, Stafford IS consistently in the top eight and - more important - near the TOP of the second tier of QBs. And that long-term consistency where he has hung around despite being on a terrible team and organization argues in his favor.

I think the best conclusions are obvious:
a) Stafford is in the second tier of QBs during his career, which may or may not be HOFers
b) if you take the view the top 20% of players rather than top 10% are in, he does make it easily.

I surmise he makes it, but I don't think he will make it first ballot unless he wins another ring.

 

[uafan4life]

"Bad" sex is like a "bad day" fishing, it's still better than a good day at the office.

Porn stars say, "Hi!"...

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think the spectre of all those losses in Detroit looms over the feel of Matthew Stafford as a quarterback and potential HoFer. He’s more than likely accustomed to taking chances due to the dearth of talent around him his entire career (Megatron excluded), which has resulted in a lot of turnovers. To have had so many terrible seasons resulting in so many high draft picks, Detroit never really did well in the draft. It seems they are just a more quiet, but equally poorly run, Midwest Raiders.

What flips this whole argument on its side is that in all his years as a starter, the only two times Stafford finished in the top 4 in the league in picks were his rookie year......and this past year when he won the Super Bowl. In point of fact, he didn't REALLY throw a "lot" of interceptions. He's no Rodgers, but he's light years ahead of Eli, who will get into the Hall most likely.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Porn stars say, "Hi!"...

 

[Bamabuzzard]

If stafford played 52 more games to equal the total career games of Elway, and kept his same career pace for yardage/year, td's/year, and INT's/year that he's had up to 2021. He would statistically be significantly "better" than Elway. He would throw a crap load more TD's, fewer INT's, and approximately 10,000 more career passing yards.


31 comebacks, 40 game-winning drives (Elway)

34 comebacks, 42 game-winning drives (Stafford)


Elway:


Stafford:

 

[Bamabuzzard]

I think this brings more into question whether Rivers is a HOF'er than Stafford.

Let's look at it like this - what should be the criteria for determining a Hall of Famer?
And does Stafford meet that criteria?

And then let's remember that we're looking in two directions:
a) how he compares to the players OF HIS TIME
b) how he compares against players of ALL-TIME

What should the Hall be? The top 10% at each position? The top 20%? No, we can't have the Tom Brady standard any more than we can have the Babe Ruth standard in baseball. The top 20% of QBs in the NFL means Stafford would have to be one of the 8 best QBs in the league year-in and year-out for at least most of his career.

Does he actually qualify on that count?

We'll start his career with the 2011 season, his first as a full-time starter. Who would we rank each year as the top four (the top 10%) of QBs in the NFL in each season? Now when I assess this, you can't seize on ONE STAT to make the case.

2011 - Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford (Peyton missed 2011)
2012 - Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton (next 4? Stafford, Ryan, Romo, tossup)
2013 - Brady, Brees, Peyton, tossup of Rivers/Ryan/Stafford (Rodgers missed 7 games)
2014 - Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton (Ryan/Luck/Rivers/Stafford)
2015 - Brady, Brees, C Palmer, Eli (Rodgers had bad year, Peyton hurt; Stafford in next tier)
2016 - Brady, Brees, Rodgers, M Ryan (Brady's stats are low due to the 4-game deflate suspension)
2017 - Brady, Brees, Stafford, Rivers (Rodgers missed 9 games)
2018 - Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben (next 4? Mahomes, Goff, Rivers, Ryan maybe)*
2019 - Brady, Rodgers, R Wilson, Mahomes (Brees missed 5 games and is still in the top 8)*
2020 - Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Mahomes (Stafford is probably not in the top 8)
2021 - Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Stafford

* - Stafford had a bad year in 2018 and only played 1/2 of 2019. It is debatable whether he would rate in the top 8 QBs in 2020 because DeShaun Watson had better stats, Matt Ryan's look better, and Josh Allen came of age. Plus, you probably wouldn't take him over Wilson or Rivers that year, either.

So what do we have?

Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton Manning are all unquestioned HOFers. Mahomes is if he continues to produce (he MIGHT be if he never played again, but that's debatable). So it's safe to say that the only times Matthew Stafford has been in the top 10% in the league were years the other elite superstars were injured - and in all cases, he was the fourth best at best.

Now for those who want to play the "let me quote you the stats from a particular year" game, that's not how it works. Sure, Matthew Stafford might have had a better year than Brees or Rodgers or Brady a time or two. But the point is that none of those teams would have traded those stars 1-for-1 for Stafford. This evaluation is a lot like the CFP - just because Team A has a tougher SOS doesn't mean they're automatically better.

However, Stafford IS consistently in the top eight and - more important - near the TOP of the second tier of QBs. And that long-term consistency where he has hung around despite being on a terrible team and organization argues in his favor.

I think the best conclusions are obvious:
a) Stafford is in the second tier of QBs during his career, which may or may not be HOFers
b) if you take the view the top 20% of players rather than top 10% are in, he does make it easily.

I surmise he makes it, but I don't think he will make it first ballot unless he wins another ring.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

If stafford played 52 more games to equal the total career games of Elway, and kept his same career pace for yardage/year, td's/year, and INT's/year that he's had up to 2021. He would statistically be significantly "better" than Elway. He would throw a crap load more TD's, fewer INT's, and approximately 10,000 more career passing yards.


31 comebacks, 40 game-winning drives (Elway)

34 comebacks, 42 game-winning drives (Stafford)


Elway:
View attachment 22937

Stafford:
View attachment 22936

Except you can't compare him to Elway (who IS an all-time great) because it's a completely different game.

Clay Travis went the Elway route with Eli Manning, including the two Super Bowl rings. Clay is spot-on about 85% of the time, but sometimes I realize, "He couldn't possibly have thought more than two seconds about this."

John Elway led the NFL in passing yardage ONE TIME (1993), on a 9-7 team with 4,030 yards. TEN QUARTERBACKS had more than that this year. Of course, the immediate objection is, "Yeah, but they played an extra game." Okay, let's go back to 2019, the last year pre-Covid.

In 2019, TEN NFL QBs topped Elway's highest total and one more (Aaron Rodgers) fell 28 yards short because he played on a team that blew folks out and wasn't passing late.

Here's the list of guys with higher yardage in 2019:
Jameis Winston (5109)
Dak Prescott
Jared Goff
Phil Rivers
Matt Ryan
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Derek Carr
Carson Wentz
Patrick Mahomes

The ONLY guy on that list you'd say is in the same zip code as Elway is the obvious one, Brady.

I don't disagree Stafford is a HOFer, but I DO disagree with making the case by invoking the career numbers of a great QB in a completely different era.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think this brings more into question whether Rivers is a HOF'er than Stafford.

Not necessarily.

I only compared from 2011-onward.

Phillip Rivers has FIVE COMPLETE SEASONS more of data than Stafford does - during which time he was 55-25, a two-time MVP candidate, and was drafted by a 4-12 also-ran.

Those five seasons may not suggest Rivers is an all-time great, but they do put him ahead of Stafford. You simply can't sneeze at 14,000 more yards or a higher completion pct - or nearly 100 more touchdowns.

 

[crimsonaudio]

 

[TideEngineer08]

View attachment 22938

If that was really them, I respect the hell out of that level of self-deprecation,

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Yep, you are correct and I completely agree. But people who vote (which is the viewpoint I'm coming from) WILL NOT put much weight into the eras in which they played. So I was putting those figures out for those who don't think Stafford will get into the HOF or should get into it. The voters DO compare career numbers of players who played in different eras (be it right or wrong be damned) and also put a lot of weight into QB's with "big stats" who also have a Super Bowl ring. Stafford will easily get in. Maybe not 1st ballot, but he WILL get in.

Except you can't compare him to Elway (who IS an all-time great) because it's a completely different game.

Clay Travis went the Elway route with Eli Manning, including the two Super Bowl rings. Clay is spot-on about 85% of the time, but sometimes I realize, "He couldn't possibly have thought more than two seconds about this."

John Elway led the NFL in passing yardage ONE TIME (1993), on a 9-7 team with 4,030 yards. TEN QUARTERBACKS had more than that this year. Of course, the immediate objection is, "Yeah, but they played an extra game." Okay, let's go back to 2019, the last year pre-Covid.

In 2019, TEN NFL QBs topped Elway's highest total and one more (Aaron Rodgers) fell 28 yards short because he played on a team that blew folks out and wasn't passing late.

Here's the list of guys with higher yardage in 2019:
Jameis Winston (5109)
Dak Prescott
Jared Goff
Phil Rivers
Matt Ryan
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
Derek Carr
Carson Wentz
Patrick Mahomes

The ONLY guy on that list you'd say is in the same zip code as Elway is the obvious one, Brady.

I don't disagree Stafford is a HOFer, but I DO disagree with making the case by invoking the career numbers of a great QB in a completely different era.

 

[81usaf92]

Yep, you are correct and I completely agree. But people who vote (which is the viewpoint I'm coming from) WILL NOT put much weight into the eras in which they played. So I was putting those figures out for those who don't think Stafford will get into the HOF or should get into it. The voters DO compare career numbers of players who played in different eras (be it right or wrong be damned) and also put a lot of weight into QB's with "big stats" who also have a Super Bowl ring. Stafford will easily get in. Maybe not 1st ballot, but he WILL get in.

Then by definition Flacco is a HOF. Comparable stats, and played less games than Stafford. Stafford has just recently passed Flacco in numbers, and finally got a ring and a playoff win.

Let’s be honest… absolutely no one on this board saw Stafford as a HOF quarterback until almost 48 hrs ago. After the luster wears off in a few weeks then people are going to start seeing him for who he is. He is a guy when his hall of fame selection comes people are going to say “yeah I remember that guy”. It’s just like when everyone went nuts on Julian Edelman… the guy is not a 1st ballot guy. Stafford is just the new Hines Ward and Julian Edelman guy who wins the SB MVP and everyone is going crazy with HOF talk.

Rivers is far more of a HOFer than Stafford and yet doesn’t get the crazy talk that Stafford has enjoyed the last 2 days.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Then by definition Flacco is a HOF. Comparable stats, and played less games than Stafford. Stafford has just recently passed Flacco in numbers, and finally got a ring and a playoff win.

Let’s be honest… absolutely no one on this board saw Stafford as a HOF quarterback until almost 48 hrs ago. After the luster wears off in a few weeks then people are going to start seeing him for who he is. He is a guy when his hall of fame selection comes people are going to say “yeah I remember that guy”. It’s just like when everyone went nuts on Julian Edelman… the guy is not a 1st ballot guy. Stafford is just the new Hines Ward and Julian Edelman guy who wins the SB MVP and everyone is going crazy with HOF talk.

Rivers is far more of a HOFer than Stafford and yet doesn’t get the crazy talk that Stafford has enjoyed the last 2 days.

Fortunately for Stafford he still has time to build his resume. I agree on Rivers. He right now belongs above Stafford on the HOF tier. (both belong above Eli) I don't think Edelman should be in the HOF at all.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Then by definition Flacco is a HOF. Comparable stats, and played less games than Stafford. Stafford has just recently passed Flacco in numbers, and finally got a ring and a playoff win.

Let’s be honest… absolutely no one on this board saw Stafford as a HOF quarterback until almost 48 hrs ago. After the luster wears off in a few weeks then people are going to start seeing him for who he is. He is a guy when his hall of fame selection comes people are going to say “yeah I remember that guy”. It’s just like when everyone went nuts on Julian Edelman… the guy is not a 1st ballot guy. Stafford is just the new Hines Ward and Julian Edelman guy who wins the SB MVP and everyone is going crazy with HOF talk.

Rivers is far more of a HOFer than Stafford and yet doesn’t get the crazy talk that Stafford has enjoyed the last 2 days.

If it were up to me, there would be a lot of players in both the MLB and NFL HOF that wouldn't be and there would be some who are not in that I would vote in. But my point is, you've got players in the NFL HOF, the MLB HOF and I'm sure the NBA HOF that shouldn't be in there, IMO. So when players like Stafford come up and people automatically say "No", you then have players who are in there that can be pointed to and say "But my god, he got voted in?".

 

[81usaf92]

Fortunately for Stafford he still has time to build his resume. I agree on Rivers. He right now belongs above Stafford on the HOF tier. (both belong above Eli) I don't think Edelman should be in the HOF at all.

My point about Edelman was immediately after SB LIII we had a non stop media campaign saying he should be a HOFer. Edelman is still well below even a borderline guy like Hines Ward. Stafford has never been mentioned as a HOF career but all of the sudden he is. I mean let’s let it settle for a bit. Because like I said you are opening up the Flacco to the HOF debate.

Rivers can be argued as being the best quarterback out of the 2004 draft between him and Ben as long as one admits that Eli is clearly the worse. But my issue is that Rivers will probably have the most uncertainty out of the 3 of going in. Yeah Ben might be a 2nd ballot because Brady would be his class (Steelers pack the HOF ceremonies and many would want Brady to have the floor to himself). I don’t think Ben’s off the field stuff is going to matter as much as people think. They are going to put him in fast.

 

[81usaf92]

If it were up to me, there would be a lot of players in both the MLB and NFL HOF that wouldn't be and there would be some who are not in that I would vote in. But my point is, you've got players in the NFL HOF, the MLB HOF and I'm sure the NBA HOF that shouldn't be in there, IMO. So when players like Stafford come up and people automatically say "No", you then have players who are in there that can be pointed to and say "But my god, he got voted in?".

My issue is how the HOF campaign for Stafford is being presented not that it is being talked about.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

My issue is how the HOF campaign for Stafford is being presented not that it is being talked about.

If you were making a case FOR Stafford, how would you present it?

 

[81usaf92]

If you were making a case FOR Stafford, how would you present it?

“We needed another name in the class”. A Super Bowl ring doesn’t change that reality. Maybe two does, but it’s highly unlikely he gets the second.

He has had a solid career but it’s not an out of this world career. I just tire of “the super bowl proves he is a Hall of famer”. Seriously compare Stafford to Flacco and they are pretty similar careers.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

“We needed another name in the class”. A Super Bowl ring doesn’t change that reality. Maybe two does, but it’s highly unlikely he gets the second.

He has had a solid career but it’s not an out of this world career. I just tire of “the super bowl proves he is a Hall of famer”. Seriously compare Stafford to Flacco and they are pretty similar careers.

Do you know how many players that are in the HOF that didn't have an "out of this world career"?