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LSU vs BAMA Predictions

TideFactor said:
I figured I'd start this thread, as I find it comical that LSU is still #1 in both polls. Don't get me wrong, I'm GLAD they are #1, because I would rather beat the "#1" team, than have someone else trying to beat us as the #1 team. However, without some "trick" or Special Teams Plays by LSU, I really don't think they have a legit chance of beating Bama and here's why:

You hear how "the game is won in the trenches" all the time, but it seems like the voters are all forgetting that. After West Virginia's beating Friday night, I think it's fair to say that the schedules of Bama & LSU are pretty even, meaning that statistics should give us a fair idea of what these 2 teams are made of. Bama's D is SOOO good this year, it has made this team VERY predictable as you will see my predictions of this years games at the bottom. When you understand that the matchup of the lines determines the outcome of the game, this Bama team is more predictable than any team I've seen in a while.

Team vs Team Breakdown

Offense - Bama has #1 Offense in SEC
QB's - Advantage Bama
RB's - Advantage Bama
WR's - Push, maybe Bama
OL - Advantage Bama
Running Offense - Advantage Bama
Passing Offense - Advantage Bama

Defense - Bama has #1 Defense in NCAA
DL - Advantage LSU
LB's - Advantage Bama
Secondary - Advantage Bama
Run D - Advantage Bama
Pass D - Advantage Bama

Special Teams - LSU
Coaching - Bama

Game Breakdown & Prediction:
As you can see, the ONLY areas LSU is superior to Bama is on the D Line and Special Teams. LSU will not be able to run on Bama, therefore making them 1 dementional in the area that is their weakness, passing. This will make for a long day and they will have trouble putting up 13 offensive points. I think 13 is their MAX number on offense, barring a special teams or defensive TD.

LSU's D Line is great, but Bama's offensive balance will keep them honest and with good play calling and the best RB in the country on our team, we will be able to score. LSU's secondary is NOT as good as everyone thinks. As WV showed, AJ will be able to throw on LSU and when he does, that will open up the running game and then LSU is in trouble. LSU has not played a team with athletes the caliber of their's all year nor an offense that is balanced. Because of that, I don't see any way LSU holds Bama under 24 pts.

The country will finally understand just how good this Bama team is after November 5th.
Final Score: 27-13, could be 31-13

My other predictions of meaningful games:
Penn State: 27-10 - was 27-11
Arkansas: 31-17 - was 38-10
Florida: 31-10 - was 38-10
Ole Miss: 45-6 - was 52-7
UT: 38-6 - was 37-6
LSU: 27-13 - TBD

ROLL TIDE!
Click to expand...

If true...Very well done.

As for your assessment, i tend to give the WR edge to LSU only because R Randle is their Julio Jones (even though he is not a JJ). Our guys are great (and i love'em), but their WRs make "Jarret Lee" look like a competent QB. Think about that.
 
ill throw out a classic. 34-13. i think it will be tight and hard fought in the first half, then we will have another dominant 3rd quarter with they arses quitting around 13 mins left in the game
 
I'd love to see the stats of the teams that Bama has played w/o the Bama Game included, and with the game included, and compare.
Then do the same thing for LSU -- that may give us a better idea of who has the better team.....
 
CRMSNtide said:
Here's a look at some numbers.

Bama is ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense with 457 yards a game.
LSU is ranked 78th in the nation in total offense with 372 yards a game.

Bama is ranked 1st in the nation in total defense allowing 180 yards a game.
LSU is ranked 3rd in the nation in total defense allowing 251 yards a game.

Bama is allowing 6.8 points a game, LSU is allowing 11.5 points a game.

Bama's main RB Richardson has 989 yards and 17 rushing TD this year.
LSU's main RB Ware has 512 yards and 6 rushing TD this year.

Bama QB McCarron has 1664 yards 10 TD and 3 INT for a 150 QB rating.
LSU QB Lee has 1250 yards 13 TD and 1 INT for a 157 QB rating.

As you can see, on paper Bama is a better team, we're at home and have the revenge factor going on this year.

I think 27 - 10 Bama.
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These statistics support the argument for a solid Bama victory.
So do the intangibles, e.g., Saban's record in "revenge" games.

And while I agree that RR and LSU's WR corps are dangerous, so is Bama's secondary.
Our DBs will bait them.
I look for one or two INTs by Barron or Lester.

Now, AJ has to keep his cool.
A lot of our problems vs. UT were self-inflicted.
It seemed like we were trying to go deep in order to open up the running game.
No need.
Our medium-yardage passing attack is more than enough to keep them guessing.
Then Richardson, Lacey and Fowler can have their way with them.

Something else:
During "College Football Live" Mark May showed a clip of LSU's defensive speed vs. Miss State.
That film clip was from late in the 3rd Quarter, LSU was up 6-3, and Miss State was on the LSU 20-yd-line.
Now, Relf, of course, stood in the pocket checking his iPhone for half-an-hour and LSU sacked him.

Think about that: A healthy (and we now know, a bad) Miss State team held LSU to 6 points late in the 3rd ....

LSU gets one offensive TD, and one off STs.
Bama gets 4 from our offense and 1 from our D:

Bama 35 LSU 14

~XS
 
CajunCrimson said:
I'd love to see the stats of the teams that Bama has played w/o the Bama Game included, and with the game included, and compare.
Then do the same thing for LSU -- that may give us a better idea of who has the better team.....
Click to expand...

Considering stats for Bama, LSU and their respective opponents only vs. FBS teams...

Bama scores 59.33% MORE than its opponents normally allow.
LSU scores 53.27% MORE than its opponents normally allow.
Offensive advantage: Bama

Bama allows 67.97% LESS than its opponents normally score.
LSU allows 53.81% LESS than its opponents normally score.
Defensive advantage: Bama

Bama offense (+59.33%) vs. LSU defense (-53.81%)
Advantage: Bama

LSU offense (+53.27%) vs. Bama defense (-67.97%)
Advantage: Bama

Bama is statistically the better team and should win this game.
 
I love the optimism, I wish I shared it. This is largely the same team that blew us off the ball in the second half last year, running for more than 200 yards. Largely the same personnel returns. We didn't do a very good job blocking them either. I expect LSU to drive the ball on us more than any other team we've faced. For that reason alone, it will be closer.

21-17 us.
 
CenLA Tiger said:
You're right. We can't pass the ball efffectively at all. Keep the box loaded all day. Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. will aprreciate that against your left corner that's been getting burned deep all year. BTW, who's the hardest running RB you guys have faced this year?
Click to expand...
I didn't say you guys CAN'T throw. I just said you're 90th in the nation. Now if you want to take that ranking to mean you can't throw, that's your choice. I saw what Rueben Randle did against Auburn. Bama's DBs aren't Auburns.

I'm not sure who the hardest running RB we've faced this year. Who has LSU faced? Vick Ballard?
 
RTR91 said:
I'm not sure who the hardest running RB we've faced this year. Who has LSU faced? Vick Ballard?
Click to expand...

We know what we're getting with TR. The hardest running back in the nation. What I'm saying is that LSU is not a finesse running team either. Spencer Ware and Kenny Hilliard run pretty hard as well. I think the strategy will be to load the box and let the corners play man. Rush the nickel and get to the QB. Probably the same strategy for Bama. Looks to be a good one. We'll see in a week & 1/2.
 
[Broken Record]The game of football is won and lost on the line of scrimmage.[/Broken Record]

Alabama has owned the line of scrimmage against every opponent, on both sides of the ball. Unlike LSU, Alabama has faced teams with good rushing attacks and we have shut them down. See Penn State, whose only loss is to Alabama and is currently 7-1. Silas Redd has 165 carries for 852 yards and four straight 100+ yard games. See also Arkansas, whose only loss is also to Alabama and who is also 7-1. See also Florida who, before running into the buzzsaw of the Alabama defense, had one of the most productive ground games in the country.

Bama broke them all into small pieces and it was done up front. Granted, none of those teams are as athletic as LSU up front, but Bama has dominated even the very good teams we've played.

I can't find anyone on LSU's "victim" list with an offense as balanced and productive as Bama's. They haven't faced anyone with an offensive line like ours. They haven't seen anyone with such a ferocious front seven on defense.

I think the game will be close through three quarters but I think Bama's superior talent up front will be the key and we will win by more than a touchdown. I've said all season that I think Bama is about a touchdown better than LSU and I've seen nothing yet to change my opinion.

Alabama 28
LSU 17
 
As an LSU fan, it's gratifying to see that there are fans everywhere who are just as delusional as ours. Granted some of you are more realistic.

It should be a very competitive game that will be decided by one big play or a key turnover or penalty.

I say:

LSU 24
Alabama 17
 
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