I was thinking the same thing...I can see them coming out of character and passing more initially to see if they can catch us off guard.
Pick the score: Auburn vs. Alabama (Iron Bowl)
- Thread starter Jessica4Bama
- Start date
Bama 24 - 17. Barn scores some on tricks, both teams running the ball and the game clock seldom stops.
Bama 41-13. Once we get caught up to the speed of the game we turn the lights out on their dream/destiny filled season. I think last week's tune up game will go a long way to help us see our mistakes against their type of offensive attack.
I finally got the time to run the numbers using my % scoring differentials, offense and defense, for each team. When I speak of common opponents, I obviously men the 6 teams that both Alabama and Auburn have played this season. This is how the numbers line up going into the game:
Alabama scores 145% of the average PPG allowed by each of its opponents - 39.7 PPG
That number is 139% for the 6 common opponents - 38.2 PPG
Alabama allows 33% of the average PPG scored by each of its opponents - 9.3 PPG
That number is 41% for the common 6 opponents - 12.7 PPG
Auburn scores 136% of the average PPG allowed by each of its opponents - 39 PPG
That number is 127% for the 6 common opponents - 35 PPG
Auburn allows 73% of the average PPG scored by each of its opponents - 22 PPG
That number is 85% for the common 6 opponents - 26.3 PPG
Running those percentages against one another, Auburn could score anywhere from 13-17 points. 17 is the max that any of the formulas produce. Alabama could score anywhere between 29-37 points. 29 is the fewest that any of the formulas produce.
So, worst case for Alabama is a 29-17 victory, best case is a 37-13 victory.
I'll split the difference and call it a 33-15 Alabama victory. If Alabama loses, you will have really blown it, IMO.
Alabama scores 145% of the average PPG allowed by each of its opponents - 39.7 PPG
That number is 139% for the 6 common opponents - 38.2 PPG
Alabama allows 33% of the average PPG scored by each of its opponents - 9.3 PPG
That number is 41% for the common 6 opponents - 12.7 PPG
Auburn scores 136% of the average PPG allowed by each of its opponents - 39 PPG
That number is 127% for the 6 common opponents - 35 PPG
Auburn allows 73% of the average PPG scored by each of its opponents - 22 PPG
That number is 85% for the common 6 opponents - 26.3 PPG
Running those percentages against one another, Auburn could score anywhere from 13-17 points. 17 is the max that any of the formulas produce. Alabama could score anywhere between 29-37 points. 29 is the fewest that any of the formulas produce.
So, worst case for Alabama is a 29-17 victory, best case is a 37-13 victory.
I'll split the difference and call it a 33-15 Alabama victory. If Alabama loses, you will have really blown it, IMO.
That's the big question, isn't it? If Gus comes out passing, both Landon Collins and {pick a CB} get pick sixes. AU hasn't faced a decent pass rush, much less an NFL-style zone defense, well since November 2012. Gus could prepare Marshall for 12 months and not understand what's coming Saturday. You have 1-3 seconds to make a decision and a great pass or you may well throw a pick. Or you can run a front seven you can't possibly simulate.
Saban figured out Gus's offense in 2010 but Cam won with his arm. Saban crushed Gus's offence in 2011. Gus's offense hasn't changed nor is his QB better than 2011.
Bama 38 (conservatively assuming crowd helps defense)
Barn 16 (1 lucky TD, 3 FGs since you can't score on Bama in the red zone without a passing game)
I say bet on the spread, not that I'm brave enough to! :smile:
First half Ala 17 Aub 14 Final score Ala 38 - Aub 28 Hopefully we don't turn the ball over,But if they do Ala 38- Aub 21. Roll Tide
I think we absolutely will have to weather an emotional storm to start the game much as we did at A@M. We can NOT fumble the football, that is critical. After much thought I'm going to say we'll win the fourth quarter and beat them 31-20.
It's very tough to beat them in Auburn but we'll find a way. sip
It's very tough to beat them in Auburn but we'll find a way. sip
Agree totally about the beginning of the game. I think if Bama can even get a couple of first downs it will help a LOT. They go three and out and you won't even be able to hear Gary and Vern. AU will have a scripted first series which we likely will not have seen so I expect to see a
defensive bust or two. I'm confident we will be okay as the game settles down but I'd assume not playing from two TDs down. Then again, when A&M went up Bama answered by scoring with 5 unanswered TDs.
I wouldn 't be surprised if we go deep very early and often to take the crowd out of it. Landon Collins will be my pick for defensive MVP.
I don't know about deep early but I do expect throws on first down and to attack the middle of the field. OJ OJ OJ. Big matchup problem.
Bama 38
Barn 16
It will be a tale of two halves. The first half Auburn will give it everything. The second will be Bama's do to superior talent, depth, and outright size.
Barn 16
It will be a tale of two halves. The first half Auburn will give it everything. The second will be Bama's do to superior talent, depth, and outright size.
This. OJ on their poor linebackers has to be a nightmare waiting to happen for them.
Regarding score predictions, where are you cbi? Always like your statistical approach.
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