Pick the score: Auburn vs. Alabama (Iron Bowl)

[uafan4life]

I don't if anyone has said it, yet, but my pick is:

Bama 42
Barn 13

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[RammerJammer15]

Anyone worried about Gus Malhzan with 2 weeks to prepare?

 

[RTR91]

Anyone worried about Gus Malhzan with 2 weeks to prepare?

I am. Somewhat.

Saban has stalled Gus' offense when playing him. He needed Cam to make some big throws rather than run like they wanted to in 2010.

His use of Jeremy Johnson scares me. He's a much better passer than Nick Marshall. I don't put anything past Gus. I can see him putting both QBs on the field together. I expect plenty of trickery from Auburn, too. My boss always talks about how Auburn is an emotional team and plays off their emotion rather than their football skill. The stadium will be loud and emotional, which makes me feel they go for the trickery to keep the crowd alive.

Their two weeks to prepare can hurt them, though. Alabama had to focus on Chattanooga for at least a few days. Auburn went through about a weeks worth of questions about the UGA game and the Iron Bowl followed by a full week of Iron Bowl questions. The excitement very well could get to them and cause them to be too anxious about the game.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Anyone worried about Gus Malhzan with 2 weeks to prepare?

About as worried as David Shaw has been when he's faced Oregon.

 

[LCN]

34 - 24 .... :BigA:

 

[oregonbltzkrieg]

Tide: 31 points, Auburn: 27 points + 3 cows, 1 horse and a few chickens. Wait, does that mean Auburn wins?

 

[westide]

Oregonblitzkreig, You forgot the sheep! Bama wins by at least 17.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

I've been going back and forth on my prediction for the score. I wish I knew for sure who was starting between Lindsay and Kelly. We have Matt Austin's crew so that's good.

No disrespect to anyone else's predictions but the barn ain't getting 20 or more points on this defense. It just isn't going to happen...period. I'm thinking they get 10-14 points at the most..maybe 17 if they are lucky.

We will easily drop 35-45 points on them with AJ carving them up and Yeldon and Drake doing their thing.

Im locking it in....Bama 41 - Barn 13 and AJ has a National coming out party to put him neck to neck with Winston for the Heisman...It might even make AJ the outright leader!!! RTR!!!

 

[OzarkBamaFan]

Don't post much, well really never, but I have to give my prediction on this one.

I say Good Guys 38 Cow College 20.

 

[JBama_in_PCOLA]

This game could look like the UF game of 2011.


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[bamafan_bdb]

Bama 34-13.

 

[jdatide]

BAMA 31 barn 21.

 

[Roll Tide 00]

52-3 tide

 

[JBama_in_PCOLA]

52-3 tide

I hope so!


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[deliveryman35]

Incorrect factoid:
Bama beat 10 - 2 Auburn in 1974.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Auburn_Tigers_football_team

You're including their bowl win, I was not. Auburn's win over Texas in the Gator Bowl at the conclusion of that season is the only way they achieved 10 wins. Their regular season final record was 9-2. They did not have 10 wins when we beat them.

IF you factor that in, then what I said is a correct statement. Sorry, I should have mentioned that stipulation in my original post--I thought it was understood.

 

[Probius]

I finally got the time to run the numbers using my % scoring differentials, offense and defense, for each team. When I speak of common opponents, I obviously men the 6 teams that both Alabama and Auburn have played this season. This is how the numbers line up going into the game:

Alabama scores 145% of the average PPG allowed by each of its opponents - 39.7 PPG
That number is 139% for the 6 common opponents - 38.2 PPG
Alabama allows 33% of the average PPG scored by each of its opponents - 9.3 PPG
That number is 41% for the common 6 opponents - 12.7 PPG

Auburn scores 136% of the average PPG allowed by each of its opponents - 39 PPG
That number is 127% for the 6 common opponents - 35 PPG
Auburn allows 73% of the average PPG scored by each of its opponents - 22 PPG
That number is 85% for the common 6 opponents - 26.3 PPG

Running those percentages against one another, Auburn could score anywhere from 13-17 points. 17 is the max that any of the formulas produce. Alabama could score anywhere between 29-37 points. 29 is the fewest that any of the formulas produce.

So, worst case for Alabama is a 29-17 victory, best case is a 37-13 victory.

I'll split the difference and call it a 33-15 Alabama victory. If Alabama loses, you will have really blown it, IMO.

Great research B1G, thanks. My prediction is right within these numbers too, RTR!

P.S. I love stats.

 

[GP for Bama]

31-20 Bama

 

[Elefantman]

Bama 42

Barn 17