Pick the score: Auburn vs. Alabama (Iron Bowl)

[bamacon]

Really anyone across the middle will be a problem for them. Kenny and DeAndrew and Coop on the WR screens could be popular too. They are weak at LB and Safety too. If we get to the 2nd level quickly they will be in a world of hurt.

 

[cbi1972]

This. OJ on their poor linebackers has to be a nightmare waiting to happen for them.

Regarding score predictions, where are you cbi? Always like your statistical approach.

Alabama is scoring 140% of their opponents' average points allowed, and allowing 26% of their opponents' average points scored. The ratio is 4.93, the best in the country. (Florida State is 2nd with 195%, 44%, and 4.46).
Auburn is scoring 132% of their opponents' average points allowed, and allowing 71% of their opponents' average points scored. The ratio is 1.86, 17th in the country.

Projected score:
Alabama 28
Auburn 13


Defense (or lack thereof) will determine the outcome here, and the time will fly off the clock.

 

[Timberline Tide]

CFN's breakdown

The Auburn crowd will be insane, the momentum will be all on the home team’s side early on after a few nice plays and maybe a scoring drive or two, and then Alabama will be Alabama. The offensive line will take over in the second half, McCarron will methodically lead the way to two scoring drives, and the defense will stuff Marshall and Mason and take control of the game. It’s not like the Tide needs to flex any muscle at this point, but it will.

Prediction: Alabama 34 … Auburn 13

 

[bamacon]

Alabama is scoring 140% of their opponents' average points allowed, and allowing 26% of their opponents' average points scored. The ratio is 4.93, the best in the country. (Florida State is 2nd with 195%, 44%, and 4.46).
Auburn is scoring 132% of their opponents' average points allowed, and allowing 71% of their opponents' average points scored. The ratio is 1.86, 17th in the country.

Projected score:
Alabama 28
Auburn 13


Defense (or lack thereof) will determine the outcome here, and the time will fly off the clock.

You think Bama will dominate Time of Possession? Maybe run the ball a little

 

[cbi1972]

You think Bama will dominate Time of Possession? Maybe run the ball a little

Time of possession won't really matter. Chattanooga dominated time of possession 34:24 to 25:36 with only 8 first downs.
I expect significant passing early on as Auburn commits to stopping the run, then more running as they back off some.
If Alabama has a solid lead in the 2nd half, which I expect, we will lean on them and milk clock even if they are stacking the line.
Auburn runs a lot, but they also hurry to run plays.

 

[bamacon]

Time of possession won't really matter. Chattanooga dominated time of possession 34:24 to 25:36 with only 8 first downs.
I expect significant passing early on as Auburn commits to stopping the run, then more running as they back off some.
If Alabama has a solid lead in the 2nd half, which I expect, we will lean on them and milk clock even if they are stacking the line.
Auburn runs a lot, but they also hurry to run plays.

Yeah I agree about passing on early downs. This is just a matchup problem for the Barn more than anything else.

 

[ontopp]

I think we absolutely will have to weather an emotional storm to start the game much as we did at A@M. We can NOT fumble the football, that is critical. After much thought I'm going to say we'll win the fourth quarter and beat them 31-20.
It's very tough to beat them in Auburn but we'll find a way. sip

I think Turn overs are key, I do believe we can strip there runners but then as Yall know You got to make the tackle first. But yall correct if I'm wrong they have turned the ball over more than we have until lately. I didn't watch all the Georgia game bits and pieces. How many turn overs in that game for Aub?

 

[ontopp]

Agree totally about the beginning of the game. I think if Bama can even get a couple of first downs it will help a LOT. They go three and out and you won't even be able to hear Gary and Vern. AU will have a scripted first series which we likely will not have seen so I expect to see a
defensive bust or two. I'm confident we will be okay as the game settles down but I'd assume not playing from two TDs down. Then again, when A&M went up Bama answered by scoring with 5 unanswered TDs.

As we all know QBs can be streaky if thats a word,we don't need go 3 and out first series in case AJ struggles also A&M doesn't have a very good defense,Aub has better pass rushers. Therefore I don't expect to score 5 unanswered scores in this game In what I think might be the score, in previous thread I gave us one field goal in the first half But I don't see Aub going for any field goals and if the game is close in second half we won't either I don't think Coach would either in a game like this. Picking a score is nothing but guess work any ways to many things can happen in a game.:biga:

 

[BigGunn]

I can't see our O scoring less than 30. Especially if we don't turn it over. I can't see our D giving up more than 20 in any imagination.
Bama 39
Barn 16

 

[bamacon]

Barkley this morning said AU would have to score at least 30 to win. I just do not see a one-dimensional team doing that against Bama. He conceded their Def was going to cough up a lot of points. I agree. ALL of their strengths on offense are matched with defensive strengths of Bama. When you flip that is when the inequality shows.

 

[oregonbltzkrieg]

Anyone worried about Gus Malhzan with 2 weeks to prepare?

 

[Elefantman]

Anyone worried about Gus Malhzan with 2 weeks to prepare?

Nope

 

[Pluck and Grit]

I haven't been that great at predicting the Tide this year, but I've been real accurate predicting the boogs all year long.

Alabama 27
Auburn 0

 

[B1GTide]

Anyone worried about Gus Malhzan with 2 weeks to prepare?

Great defensive coaches worry me more with extended time to prepare. Alabama has a few - Auburn does not. I believe that Alabama's defensive coaches have been preparing for Auburn since the LSU game ended - certainly since the MSU game ended.

I do believe that Auburn's game plan will include more passes than most games this season, but I also believe that Alabama's defense saw the types of passes that they will have to defend in the GA game. In short, I believe that Alabama's defense will have a few wrinkles for Auburn, not the other way around.

 

[bamacon]

Anyone worried about Gus Malhzan with 2 weeks to prepare?

No. Saban has figured out how to defend the five plays. Remember, AU had Gus in 2011 just no Cam. Even with Cam Bama should have won. Thy just didn't finish. They had ZERO offensive points in 2011. Then again, that Bama Def. was insane sick but to me this is the 2nd best def we've put put there. It's all about the players executing. Really Bama has been preparing since LSU if you want to talk truth. Just need to weather the emotion and play Bama ball.

 

[bamacon]

Great defensive coaches worry me more with extended time to prepare. Alabama has a few - Auburn does not. I believe that Alabama's defensive coaches have been preparing for Auburn since the LSU game ended - certainly since the MSU game ended.

I do believe that Auburn's game plan will include more passes than most games this season, but I also believe that Alabama's defense saw the types of passes that they will have to defend in the GA game. In short, I believe that Alabama's defense will have a few wrinkles for Auburn, not the other way around.

That's not who they are. Marshall throws high a LOT. If they are passing a bunch that will mean they are losing so pass away Awbrens. . You can't change who you are the last week of November. Gus knows the score. If he can't run he can't win. Really is that simple.

 

[B1GTide]

That's not who they are. Marshall throws high a LOT. If they are passing a bunch that will mean they are losing so pass away Awbrens. . You can't change who you are the last week of November. Gus knows the score. If he can't run he can't win. Really is that simple.

I did not say that they would change their offensive schemes - I said that I expect them to pass more using the same pass plays that have worked for them in other games against Alabama. They have to, and they know it, so they will try.

 

[Crimson1967]

Anyone worried about Gus Malhzan with 2 weeks to prepare?

Do you really think Saban spent much time on the Chattanooga game plan? And, truth be told, I think the bad showing at Mississippi State was part LSU hangover and part looking ahead to this game.

I'm not good at score predicting, but I'll go with this.......

Us: A bunch
Them: Not much

 

[bamacon]

I did not say that they would change their offensive schemes - I said that I expect them to pass more using the same pass plays that have worked for them in other games against Alabama. They have to, and they know it, so they will try.

I didn't say you did. If they throw 20 times then they aren't succeeding running which is super fine by me. I agree with you totally that they'll have to try because I think Bama will slam the run hard.

 

[RammerJammer15]

Alabama 24
Auburn 15

OR

Alabama 42
Auburn 21

Basically if our gameplan is run or pass.