JessN: SEC Previews and Predictions: Week 12

[JessN]

SEC Previews and Predictions: Week 12
by Jess Nicholas
TideFans Editor-In-Chief
November 18th, 2015 04:19 AM

By Jess Nicholas TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief Nov. 18, 2015 Last week’s record: 4-4 (50.0%) Season record: 67-24 (73.6%) The Predictions Dept. couldn’t follow up two solid weeks with a third, as upsets by Arkansas and Vanderbilt conspired to ruin its record in Week 11. This week, LSU and Ole Miss is the most important game, as […]

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[JBama_in_PCOLA]

Wow, LSU over Ole Miss? Interesting!


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[Bazza]

Thanks as always, Jess. A few interesting match ups this week......

I wonder if Mizzou will carry it's fire over to this week or will UT be the team we thought it could be this year?

Then there's the Hogs. Revert to their early season status or stay the course?

And then there's LSU and Ole Miss....who the heck knows at this point?

I'm calling it now...Baylor over OK State.

 

[GrayTide]

I agree with all predictions but the Ole Miss vs LSU game. I believe LSU is finished, they may still have a shot at TAMU, but it is slim at best. While Ole Miss is reeling from its loss to Arkansas they did have an off week and will come out ready to play. Chad Kelly will have a big game and even though the Ole Miss defense has backed up somewhat this year they have enough to keep Fournette somewhat in check and Brandon Harris is a non factor. Close game but Ole Miss by 6-8 points at home.

 

[JBama_in_PCOLA]

I agree with all predictions but the Ole Miss vs LSU game. I believe LSU is finished, they may still have a shot at TAMU, but it is slim at best. While Ole Miss is reeling from its loss to Arkansas they did have an off week and will come out ready to play. Chad Kelly will have a big game and even though the Ole Miss defense has backed up somewhat this year they have enough to keep Fournette somewhat in check and Brandon Harris is a non factor. Close game but Ole Miss by 6-8 points at home.

I agree, but then again Ole Miss is out of it almost. I expect a battle. Although it could go either way, I expect Ole Miss to pull it out.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Spot on with how I feel Jess...Black Bears defeated at home by the corndogs as well!

 

[sanjosecrimson]

Actually I don't see LSU winning. It's on the road, OM has 2 weeks to prepare for them, lsu oline has been abused 2 weeks in a row , OM front 7 is better than Arkansas and their secondary is more physical too. Lsu looks like a team in disarray at this moment. It will take a perfect game from Harris to beat OM and I don't see that happening , fournette has been a non factor in his last 2 games. Another distressing issue for lsu is that their overhyped defense has looked bad when facing comparable or better competition. OM is not a good match up for them, Alabama and Arkansas were better suited for their style of defense and we saw what happened there. Regarding LSU defense it isn't just the DBs are average, their LBs are just not that good, their DL outside of Neal is undersized and not physical enough. Fournette will get his yards, but it may not be enough. Lsu is not equip to have a shootout with OM, anemic as our offense has been sometimes this season we actually went toe to toe with OM when we needed. If Harris has to put the team on his back when Fournette becomes ineffective all bets are off.

For people or fans who believe OM rush defense is average and can be run on, here are the stats regarding their rush defense vs SEC teams in 2015:
W Alabama: 215 yards. Henry (125)
W Vandy: 128
L Florida: 84
W Texas AM: 58
W Auburn: 125
L Arkansas: 163. Collins (108)
I will include their game vs Memphis too because they lost that game ( 107 rushing yards).
2 of their 3 losses, the opposing team didn't reach the 100 yard mark or barely made it (Florida: 84 / Memphis 107).
Fournette ran for 113 on 23 carries against Mississippi in 2014. LSU as a team rushed for 264 total yards in that game. they are going to have to repeat it again in order to beat OM. OM has allowed only 2 RBs to go over 100 yards this season ( Henry and Collins).

OM allows an average of 128.33 yds per game vs SEC teams. that doesn't sound like a team that can be easily run on.
Alabama is the only team to rush over 200 yards on them. let's see what LSU can do this year.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Actually I don't see LSU winning. It's on the road, OM has 2 weeks to prepare for them, lsu oline has been abused 2 weeks in a row , OM front 7 is better than Arkansas and their secondary is more physical too. Lsu looks like a team in disarray at this moment. It will take a perfect game from Harris to beat OM and I don't see that happening , fournette has been a non factor in his last 2 games. Another distressing issue for lsu is that their overhyped defense has looked bad when facing comparable or better competition. OM is not a good match up for them, Alabama and Arkansas were better suited for their style of defense and we saw what happened there. Regarding LSU defense it isn't just the DBs are average, their LBs are just not that good, their DL outside of Neal is undersized and not physical enough. Fournette will get his yards, but it may not be enough. Lsu is not equip to have a shootout with OM, anemic as our offense has been sometimes this season we actually went toe to toe with OM when we needed. If Harris has to put the team on his back when Fournette becomes ineffective all bets are off.

I dig it...my premise is purely on Miles and the whos. That bunch plays with a lot of pride and I simply do not seeing them dropping 3 straight. I think you'll see a different team this weekend freshly amped up by Les in the locker room. Miles is coaching this one for his job and the players will respond. I could be wrong and often am but I just have that gut feeling.

 

[BamaMoon]

I hope Jess is right about LSU beating OM. Although I think we'll put away a scrappy Auburn team in the second half (maybe first), I would rather face them with the West already wrapped up. If not, they'll be much more motivated in this game.

 

[GrayTide]

I dig it...my premise is purely on Miles and the whos. That bunch plays with a lot of pride and I simply do not seeing them dropping 3 straight. I think you'll see a different team this weekend freshly amped up by Les in the locker room. Miles is coaching this one for his job and the players will respond. I could be wrong and often am but I just have that gut feeling.

Hope you are right.