The 49ers are clearly the better team, but the question mark is if Jimmy G is ready for this moment....
Just have seen this script too many times before. Defense actually matters in the NFL, and the 49ers have probably a defense that cements it’s legacy against a great offense while the Chiefs are taught the same lesson that the Patriots taught them last year... Their defense isn’t Super Bowl good.
49ers 34
Chiefs 17
MVP Nick Bosa
The best defense in the NFL didn't even win their playoff game, though. New England had a better defense than the 49ers do, and they couldn't beat the Chiefs in Foxborough. The 2nd best defense in PA was Buffalo, and they lost six games.
I don't disagree with you in theory.
But I think too many folks are letting the Green Bay games dominate their thinking. The 49ers have a good defense, yes, but they also gave up 46 points to the Saints. They're NOT the 2000 Baltimore Ravens (for example).
I've run the numbers and this is what I've got:
KC 28 SF 24
Past performance of this model has been pretty good, even with the NFL
SB 48 - Seattle in a romp over Denver
SB 49 - Seattle 31 Pats 21 (well, the Hawks WOULD have had 31.....if.....)
SB 50 - Carolina slightly over Denver (wrong but the game was close until late)
SB 51 - Patriots 31 Falcons 27
SB 52 - Eagles (but the numbers weren't close..)
So I feel decent enough about it unless Mahomes pulls a Cam Newton.