Everybody and their brother in the media seems to have one of a number of opinions - almost all involving a "mobile" quarterback - about what it takes to beat Bama. Few of them, however, ever seem to actually give anything but a singular, anecdotal example as evidence for their claims. So, let's take a look at what it's taken to beat Bama over the last 9 football seasons...
I'm going with the last nine seasons as that constitutes the 11 losses since the 2011 loss to LSU - which is the veritable exception that proves all rules and is as much of an outlier as one could really envision. Even going back that far, it should be noted that there has been a significant shift in both offensive and defensive tendencies and strategies for Bama from the early part of this stretch to now but there are enough similarities that they warrant inclusion.
So, here's the list:
2019 - LSU
2019 - Auburn
2018 - Clemson
2017 - Auburn
2016 - Clemson
2015 - Ole Miss
2014 - Ole Miss
2014 - Ohio State
2013 - Auburn
2013 - Oklahoma
2012 - Texas A&M
First, let's dispel the notion that the terms "mobile quarterback" and "running quarterback" are synonymous. If they were, then opposing QBs would have been doing significant damage against Bama in most, if not all, of Bama's last 11 losses. However, here are the aggregate rushing stats by QBs against Bama in those losses:
165 attempts for 627 yards (3.8 yards/rush) for 6 TDs.
Only once did opposing QBs break 100 yards rushing or score more than a single, rushing touchdown (2017 Auburn).
Only thrice did opposing QBs average at least 5.0 yards per rush (2019 Auburn, 2017 Auburn, & 2012 Texas A&M).
So, if Bama's kryptonite isn't simply a quarterback with running ability, there must be other factors. What about the most consistently telling stat we have as a correlation to winning or losing - turnovers? I'm glad you asked...
In those 11 losses, Alabama has turned the ball over 18 times to its opponents 7. Yes, those 11 losses resulted in a -11.0 turnover margin.
Only once did Alabama win the turnover battle (2016 Clemson).
But why would all the talking heads talk about quarterbacks so much when talking about what it takes to beat Bama? Again, I'm glad you asked. Because there's something very interesting about what all those opposing quarterbacks have done in Bama's last 11 losses. Here are the aggregate passing stats of Bama's opponents in those 11 games:
246 completions in 379 passes (64.9% completion) for 27 TDs and 2 INTs for an NCAA Passer Rating of 156.49.
To put that passer rating into perspective, only 15 quarterbacks in all of FBS averaged that high a rating for the 2019 season, only 14 in 2018, and only 12 in 2017 - and that includes all the creampuff games where they got to pad their stats.
Only twice did opposing QBs have a passer rating below 140.0 (2019 Auburn & 2014 Ohio State).
[Not coincidentally, Bama lost the turnover battle in both of those games.]
Only twice did opposing QBs throw for less than 240.0 yards (2019 Auburn & 2013 Auburn).
None of the opposing QBs failed to throw at least one TD pass.
Only twice did opposing QBs only throw a single TD pass (2019 Auburn & 2017 Auburn).
And, while we're talking about scoring TDs and since the scoreboard is the most important thing, here's another tidbit about those 11 losses:
Never did an opposing team's quarterbacks score fewer than 2 TDs in the game.
Only three times did an opposing team's quarterbacks score fewer than 3 TDs in the game (2019 Auburn, 2014 Ohio State & 2012 Texas A&M).
TL;DR
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So, based on Alabama's 11 losses over the last nine seasons, here's what it takes to beat Bama:
(You need at least 4 out of 5.)
- Win the turnover battle.
- Throw for at least two touchdowns in the game.
- Have your QBs account for at least three total touchdowns, running or passing in the game.
- Have your QBs throw for at least 240 yards in the game.
- Have your QBs throw efficiently, earning a passer rating of at least 140.0 for the game.
I'm going with the last nine seasons as that constitutes the 11 losses since the 2011 loss to LSU - which is the veritable exception that proves all rules and is as much of an outlier as one could really envision. Even going back that far, it should be noted that there has been a significant shift in both offensive and defensive tendencies and strategies for Bama from the early part of this stretch to now but there are enough similarities that they warrant inclusion.
So, here's the list:
2019 - LSU
2019 - Auburn
2018 - Clemson
2017 - Auburn
2016 - Clemson
2015 - Ole Miss
2014 - Ole Miss
2014 - Ohio State
2013 - Auburn
2013 - Oklahoma
2012 - Texas A&M
First, let's dispel the notion that the terms "mobile quarterback" and "running quarterback" are synonymous. If they were, then opposing QBs would have been doing significant damage against Bama in most, if not all, of Bama's last 11 losses. However, here are the aggregate rushing stats by QBs against Bama in those losses:
165 attempts for 627 yards (3.8 yards/rush) for 6 TDs.
Only once did opposing QBs break 100 yards rushing or score more than a single, rushing touchdown (2017 Auburn).
Only thrice did opposing QBs average at least 5.0 yards per rush (2019 Auburn, 2017 Auburn, & 2012 Texas A&M).
So, if Bama's kryptonite isn't simply a quarterback with running ability, there must be other factors. What about the most consistently telling stat we have as a correlation to winning or losing - turnovers? I'm glad you asked...
In those 11 losses, Alabama has turned the ball over 18 times to its opponents 7. Yes, those 11 losses resulted in a -11.0 turnover margin.
Only once did Alabama win the turnover battle (2016 Clemson).
But why would all the talking heads talk about quarterbacks so much when talking about what it takes to beat Bama? Again, I'm glad you asked. Because there's something very interesting about what all those opposing quarterbacks have done in Bama's last 11 losses. Here are the aggregate passing stats of Bama's opponents in those 11 games:
246 completions in 379 passes (64.9% completion) for 27 TDs and 2 INTs for an NCAA Passer Rating of 156.49.
To put that passer rating into perspective, only 15 quarterbacks in all of FBS averaged that high a rating for the 2019 season, only 14 in 2018, and only 12 in 2017 - and that includes all the creampuff games where they got to pad their stats.
Only twice did opposing QBs have a passer rating below 140.0 (2019 Auburn & 2014 Ohio State).
[Not coincidentally, Bama lost the turnover battle in both of those games.]
Only twice did opposing QBs throw for less than 240.0 yards (2019 Auburn & 2013 Auburn).
None of the opposing QBs failed to throw at least one TD pass.
Only twice did opposing QBs only throw a single TD pass (2019 Auburn & 2017 Auburn).
And, while we're talking about scoring TDs and since the scoreboard is the most important thing, here's another tidbit about those 11 losses:
Never did an opposing team's quarterbacks score fewer than 2 TDs in the game.
Only three times did an opposing team's quarterbacks score fewer than 3 TDs in the game (2019 Auburn, 2014 Ohio State & 2012 Texas A&M).
TL;DR
----------------------------------------------------------
So, based on Alabama's 11 losses over the last nine seasons, here's what it takes to beat Bama:
(You need at least 4 out of 5.)
- Win the turnover battle.
- Throw for at least two touchdowns in the game.
- Have your QBs account for at least three total touchdowns, running or passing in the game.
- Have your QBs throw for at least 240 yards in the game.
- Have your QBs throw efficiently, earning a passer rating of at least 140.0 for the game.
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