UCLA and USC WILL Join the B1G in 2024

[NoNC4Tubs]

Nope. There is only one team and one team only that the B1G will ever consider without an AAU membership. Neither Clemson or Miami are it. Yes Nebraska is no longer an AAU but they were when they joined.

What's the deal with the AAU membership that you keep referring to...?

 

[81usaf92]

What's the deal with the AAU membership that you keep referring to...?

The B1G requires everyone to be apart of AAU research. It’s something to do with medical and legal research from what I gathered. They are big on academics and AAU schools are elite. I think the only SEC schools with AAU are Texas, aTm, Mizzou, Vandy, and Florida.

Nebraska was AAU when they joined but are no longer because the administration didn’t like where they were heading

 

[TideEngineer08]

What's the deal with the AAU membership that you keep referring to...?

AAU members listed here

The Big Ten has, for many years, made a big deal out of the fact that all of their member institutions are a part of the AAU. What grants AAU access is something to do with the amount of research money a school has in several different areas. As 81 said, Nebraska was an AAU member when it joined the Big Ten, then lost their membership over medical school funding.

Notre Dame has been the lone exception to the Big Ten's informal rule to only take AAU schools as members. In fact, Notre Dame is already a Big Ten member - in hockey.

In real life, AAU membership means literally absolutely zero. It's nothing more than an ego trip for the nerds running the Big Ten. However, I will not deny there are some running the SEC who likely wish the SEC had the same kind of prestige. You'll notice that Texas A&M, Missouri, and now Texas are all 3 AAU members. Oklahoma is not, but as the SEC doesn't publicly have the same hang up as the Big Ten, it wasn't a big deal.

Some have said the Big Ten would have taken in OU in order to get Texas but I am not so sure that is true.

 

[crimsonaudio]

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

I was wondering when someone was going to point this out.

Los Angeles has lost the Raiders, Chargers, and Rams as football teams - and go look at how empty the Coliseum is when USC is a mediocrity. In all honesty, I think it will be VERY difficult going forward to expand the base of college football fans beyond what we have now and their offspring and (maybe) some folks who go to the school.

The story of CFB was - for so long - a story of GROWTH. Let's be honest and admit one of the biggest reasons the Southeast (in particular) became such a rabid fan area for CFB is because the nearest NFL team was 500 miles from Tuscaloosa back in a time before the interstate highway system existed. But you could hear your local school on the radio. The sport kept growing and growing with interest through the dawn of television, the increase in the number of games on TV, and the multiplicity of national championships. Miami, for example, nearly dropped football in the 70s but because of the quirky bowl setup, they won the 1983 national championship and became a huge draw.

We've now eliminated so much of what made the sport appealing. Some of it was inevitable, but in the process of good intentions, it got royally botched. We had entire New Year's Days filled with 2-3 and sometimes four games that had a direct bearing on the championship. For example, in that infamous 1979 Sugar Bowl with the Goal Line Stand, it mattered whether Oklahoma beat Nebraska (and by how much), and it mattered whether USC or Michigan won (and by how much). Fast forward even to 1994 when Penn St got messed over by the polls, and imagine the train wreck if both Nebraska and Penn State had lost.

And that INTEREST generated ratings and more interest.

Polls created interest - so we rendered them fictitious with BCS and then CFP re-ranking.
Bowls created interest - and we made separate bowls the main thing and rendered the rest obsolete.
Colleges had to recruit out of state to compete and travel enabled that - and the system collapsed in favor of the brand names that became hallowed back in the pre-TV days.
Although the redshirt rule needed modification - we introduced free agency, which allows a Jalen Hurts to leave Alabama because he's not the starter and go start at Oklahoma...which collapses the system again in favor of the powerhouses.

A former friend of mine watched the 2013 IB in a bar in Boston, her interest being because he ex-BIL is an Auburn grad. When the horrible ending occurred, most of them didn't even know what the rule was, and their only interest was because:
a) it was two days after Thanksgiving and because most everything closes up there for "religious" reasons, some hadn't been to the bar since Wednesday
b) it was really all that was on sports-wise that day and important - but most didn't even know how important.

I fear where this is headed, but I'm thankful I got the time watching this I did.

I just fail to see how, say, Washington DC is gonna get all excited to see UVA get blown out by UGA.

Post of the year!

 

[81usaf92]

Some have said the Big Ten would have taken in OU in order to get Texas but I am not so sure that is true.

It’s hard To predict. But they probably would try partial membership for Oklahoma if Texas was on the table.

But there is no way in hell that they would take Clemson.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Well in my previous post I delved into how much state lines matter. Washington DC is a special case though, but I've seen all sorts of claims in terms of what school can reach them. In truth it's Maryland territory, but very tepid support even for Maryland. Really it's just another example of how much state lines matter, because the favorite team in Washington DC only enjoys 15% support and that's just about the lowest you'll see anywhere.

Washington DC is a very transient area. People from every state live there and as a result there is a lot of diversity in the fanbases that are found there...

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Didn’t Colorado burn that bridge when they left?

Memorie$ are $hort when it come$ to certain thing$...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Time will tell, when the new TV deals are cut and when they have some experience with long-distance relationships...

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Well, some of the stuff is just throwing up something to see what sticks. For instance he says: " Miami and Virginia Tech are reasonable SEC candidates. So on and so forth. "

There's long been this general notion of, let's just rebuild the old Southern conference when people mention expansion targets. The thing is if the SEC adds teams without really expanding their geographic footprint they are going to continue getting curb stomped financially by the Big 10 who seems to better understand how money works.

Having said that, I am worried the SEC is going to get further screwed over by ESPN (who has been perpetually giving them bad deals) and in the case of the info you are providing, one would assume they are willing to negotiate (since the grant of rights deal is signed with them) if it's good for current ratings. The thing is ESPN only has to care about the current deal that the SEC already signed giving ESPN their soul for the forseeable future. They don't have to care about the future of the conference, or even the sport really.

So when those teams get settled in and have played .500 ball long enough for people to realize they don't really care about them? ESPN won't care, they'll get a cheaper deal next time... But, the SEC is in a bad position having already signed the deal which has already aged poorly, so what can they do other than tell ESPN to take a hike.

My hope is that the SEC can hold firm on some sort of logical expansion that is actually an expansion and not just doubling down on territory they already control.

Adding teams to the conference forces a new deal, so the SEC can still come out with a much better deal without waiting for the old deal to expire...

 

[CajunCrimson]

Let’s put a pool together. Getting points for each team and where they end up.

I do think the PAC and the B12 should merge and also take leftovers from ACC and a few others

Imagine:
Arizona
ASU
Colorado
Kansas
K State
Iowa State
Baylor
Ok State
BYU
Utah
TCU
Houston
SMU
WVU
Va Tech
Syracuse
Boston College
Pitt
UCF
USF
Louisville
Memphis

I think it would be more interesting than the B1G. Who, let’s face it has tOSU and a bunch of also-rans

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

I've tried explaining this a few times in a few ways, but let me give an example.

Alabama's shoe deal is worth about 5.5 million a year. UCLA's is worth 7.7 million, which is actually quite a bit less than UCLA's previous deal. Within the answer lies what I've been getting at. Bad business acumen mixed with just how more attractive some markets are.

Not disagreeing with you Krazy, but I must point out that $7.7M in Los Angeles isn't nearly as much as $5.5M in Alabama...

 

[TideEngineer08]

Let’s put a pool together. Getting points for each team and where they end up.

I do think the PAC and the B12 should merge and also take leftovers from ACC and a few others

Imagine:
Arizona
ASU
Colorado
Kansas
K State
Iowa State
Baylor
Ok State
BYU
Utah
TCU
Houston
SMU
WVU
Va Tech
Syracuse
Boston College
Pitt
UCF
USF
Louisville
Memphis

I think it would be more interesting than the B1G. Who, let’s face it has tOSU and a bunch of also-rans

These things change so quickly nowadays, and what was a sure thing yesterday gets blown up in the middle of the night. But my prediction:

Arizona, ASU, Colorado, and Utah end up with the Big 12 and become the Big 16. Neither of the 4 are ultimately desirable by the Big Ten nor the SEC and they will find a great deal more money available with the Big 12 than by remaining in some form of the PAC.

This means all of your current list of Big 12 teams remain as they are today.

For now, SMU, USF, and Memphis remain in the AAC. I think prior to last week, there was a real chance they ended up in the Big 12 in a few years. But now that the Pac 12 is dying, those chances have been dashed.

I think the ACC is going to survive in some form. It seems to me that the Big Ten is going to hold until Notre Dame determines its choice. But ND's choice hinges on what the ACC can do or what the SEC may do to the ACC. At this stage, does the SEC do anything at all? It seems obvious FSU, Miami, and Clemson want out. If the SEC wants them, does their exit make the ACC untenable for Notre Dame? Can UNC and Virginia even be enticed to leave the ACC?

The money is obviously with Big Ten and SEC membership. How important is that really to the likes of Notre Dame (who could have had the money at any time over the last 20 years), UNC, and Virginia? If UNC and Virginia do not bail, then the ACC will survive in some form which means Syracuse, BC, and Pitt remain where they are currently at. IF the ACC goes on to lose FSU, Clemson, and Miami, then perhaps they reach out and add Memphis, USF, and Navy.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

The B1G requires everyone to be apart of AAU research. It’s something to do with medical and legal research from what I gathered. They are big on academics and AAU schools are elite. I think the only SEC schools with AAU are Texas, aTm, Mizzou, Vandy, and Florida.

Nebraska was AAU when they joined but are no longer because the administration didn’t like where they were heading

Thanks!

Eh, it's just a rule and rules can be changed or swept aide.

So, I assume that both USC and UCLA are AAU?

 

[TideEngineer08]

Thanks!

Eh, it's just a rule and rules can be changed or swept aide.

So, I assume that both USC and UCLA are AAU?

Yes they are. Among Pac 12 schools, all are AAU except Oregon State, Washington State, and Arizona State.

 

[BamaMoon]

You are digging down into the details and I'm simply looking at it from a 30k foot viewpoint.

I can see the plusses and minuses of UNC/UVA/Duke/Va Tech, as well as those for and against FSU/Clemson/Miami.

From my jet plane viewpoint, I just can't see the benefits of adding Clemson and FSU/Miami OVER introducing two new states with a combo of NC and Virginia schools.

 

[KrAzY3]

Adding teams to the conference forces a new deal, so the SEC can still come out with a much better deal without waiting for the old deal to expire...

It actually doesn't, unless the SEC deal has a new provision. When the SEC added Texas A&M and Missouri I know the pushback from the TV deal side of things was that they wanted to keep paying the same amount per team. The SEC was able to do some renegotiating but it wasn't triggered by a clause that I'm aware of. I know the SEC had to wait for the last deal with CBS to expire before they could get a much better one for example. One big point of leverage the SEC has is an additional conference game, so they could dangle that in front of ESPN.

Back to the general topic, I think once the dust has settled there will probably be 3 mega conferences for the next several years. Big 10, SEC, and what could turn out to be the Big 12, which can just add the leftovers from the Pac 12 and ACC (being somewhat centrally located helps with this). This all depends on cracking open the ACC though, if for instance the Big 10 just gets Notre Dame and the SEC (shortsightedly) just adds a couple Florida schools or something the ACC could zombie walk through more years of their current deal.

I think eventually, in part due to those weird AAU rules the Big 10 will eventually come for North Carolina and Virginia. That's one reason I think it's so important the SEC act expeditiously to get those two schools. They can screw around with the Florida schools later if they want, but North Carolina is on the Big 10's list and if they drag their feet the Big 10 will be pushing south while the SEC goes nowhere.

Once North Carolina and Virginia are gone, it's hard to imagine the ACC surviving, in fact getting that deal done might literally require the destruction of the ACC due to grant of rights deals.

 

[TideEngineer08]

From my jet plane viewpoint, I just can't see the benefits of adding Clemson and FSU/Miami OVER introducing two new states with a combo of NC and Virginia schools.

Well are you flying at 30k feet or are you buzzing the beach at Panama City?

Seriously I get what you are saying.

 

[CajunCrimson]

From my jet plane viewpoint, I just can't see the benefits of adding Clemson and FSU/Miami OVER introducing two new states with a combo of NC and Virginia schools.

No one watches NC and VA schools for national telecasts. But FSU vs Florida. Clemson vs Alabama. LSU vs Miami. People will watch those games. Eyeballs have value.

Not just new eyeballs. Total eyeballs

 

[crimsonaudio]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544378400034504706