Playoff Predictor scenarios

[Cruloc]

Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

Pick the winners of each Power 5 conference title game using the Allstate Playoff Predictor and see how it affects your favorite CFP contender.

www.espn.com

We beat Georgia, Louisville beats FSU....other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State
Probability that those picks are all correct - 8%

We beat Georgia, all other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%
Probability that those picks are correct - 22%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 99%
3. Oregon - 98%
4. Bama - 81%
5. Ohio State - 12%
Probability that those picks are correct - 3%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas, Louisville upsets FSU:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Alabama - 95%
4. Ohio State - 46%
5. Georgia - 46%
Probability that those picks are correct - <1%

Basically, besides the obvious of beating Georgia......we absolutely need Louisville to beat FSU.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

Pick the winners of each Power 5 conference title game using the Allstate Playoff Predictor and see how it affects your favorite CFP contender.

www.espn.com

We beat Georgia, Louisville beats FSU....other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State
Probability that those picks are all correct - 8%

We beat Georgia, all other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%
Probability that those picks are correct - 22%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 99%
3. Oregon - 98%
4. Bama - 81%
5. Ohio State - 12%
Probability that those picks are correct - 3%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas, Louisville upsets FSU:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Alabama - 95%
4. Ohio State - 46%
5. Georgia - 46%
Probability that those picks are correct - <1%

Basically, besides the obvious of beating Georgia......we absolutely need Louisville to beat FSU.

Yeah if either chokes we are in at #4

If both choke we are in at #3 and tOSU and UGA are in a Knife fight for #4

Though I could also see the committee putting tOSU at #3 to avoid an immediate rematch with Mich in the Semi's

I'd love to get Oregon in the Semi's and just MAUL them.

But tbh the biggest challenge is beating UGA this week.

 

[BamaBoySince89]

FSU is not a lock, somebody tell me what’s their biggest win this year?

 

[Cruloc]

FSU is not a lock, somebody tell me what’s their biggest win this year?

Won't matter if they are an undefeated ACC champion. They are a lock if they beat Louisville.

 

[colbysullivan]

It's astounding these numbers are real. It's simply unthinkable the SEC gets left out, yet here we are.

 

[colbysullivan]

FSU is not a lock, somebody tell me what’s their biggest win this year?

LSU (our 3rd best win)

 

[GrayTide]

Louisville could not beat Kentucky at home, I just don't see them beating FSU. If Louisville were to pull off the upset we are still behind the Washington vs Oregon winner, probably tOSU and Texas. Our fate will come down to the SECC game.

 

[Power Eye]

I was listening to Josh Pate and he briefly mentioned the ESPN playoff predictor and was puzzled by it's results, and I've always thought the playoff predictor was garbage, much like the ESPN FPI which still has Penn St. at #4. Point being, any statistical analysis that ESPN produces I pay no attention.

 

[timmyj3]

If the committee is so enamored with the ACC and FSU, why do they seem to show no love to a one loss Louisville team? (I dont think either are playoff material in any way, shape, or form. The FSU love is frustrating to say the least)

 

[colbysullivan]

If the committee is so enamored with the ACC and FSU, why do they seem to show no love to a one loss Louisville team? (I dont think either are playoff material in any way, shape, or form. The FSU love is frustrating to say the least)

Because they know the ACC sucks, but they also know they can't get away with leaving out a P5 undefeated conference champ. It's garbage.

 

[timmyj3]

Because they know the ACC sucks, but they also know they can't get away with leaving out a P5 undefeated conference champ. It's garbage.

Almost makes me sick. I know this committee is all about wins (even against inferior competition). By their logic I am surprised they don't have the G5 Liberty team in the mix here.

 

[92tide]

Louisville could not beat Kentucky at home, I just don't see them beating FSU. If Louisville were to pull off the upset we are still behind the Washington vs Oregon winner, probably tOSU and Texas. Our fate will come down to the SECC game.

i didn’t see us having such a tough time with the barn or uga letting ga tech stay around either, but that’s why we play the games 😎

 

[Cruloc]

Wait til the committee talks about Bama barely beating Auburn and how it looked.....those words will come out of Boo Corrigan's mouth Tuesday night.

 

[Cruloc]

Committee members:

Boo Corrigan - Athletic Director at NC State, former AD at Army

Chris Ault - former HC at Nevada

Mitch Barnhart - AD at Kentucky, former AD at Oregon State

Chet Gladchuk - AD at Navy, former AD at Tulane, Houston

Jim Grobe - former HC at Wake Forest and Ohio Univ.

Mark Harlan - AD at Utah, former AD at USF

Warde Manuel - AD at Michigan, former AD at UConn

David Sayler - AD at Miami (Ohio), former AD at South Dakota

Will Shields - 1992 All-American OL at Nebraska, Outland Trophy winner.

Gene Taylor - AD at Kansas State, former AD at North Dakota State.

Joe Taylor - former HC at Howard, Virginia Union, Hampton, and Florida A&M

Rod West - Group President of Utility Operations for Entergy Corp. Member of Board of Directors for the National Football Foundation, past president of the Sugar Bowl, played LB at Notre Dame

Kelly Whiteside - Professor at Montclair State, spent 14 years as USA Today national college football writer

I'd argue this is probably the worst committee we've had, but it doesn't matter really.

 

[timmyj3]

Committee members:

Boo Corrigan - Athletic Director at NC State, former AD at Army

Chris Ault - former HC at Nevada

Mitch Barnhart - AD at Kentucky, former AD at Oregon State

Chet Gladchuk - AD at Navy, former AD at Tulane, Houston

Jim Grobe - former HC at Wake Forest and Ohio Univ.

Mark Harlan - AD at Utah, former AD at USF

Warde Manuel - AD at Michigan, former AD at UConn

David Sayler - AD at Miami (Ohio), former AD at South Dakota

Will Shields - 1992 All-American OL at Nebraska, Outland Trophy winner.

Gene Taylor - AD at Kansas State, former AD at North Dakota State.

Joe Taylor - former HC at Howard, Virginia Union, Hampton, and Florida A&M

Rod West - Group President of Utility Operations foin the r Entergy Corp. Member of Board of Directors for the National Football Foundation, past president of the Sugar Bowl, played LB at Notre Dame

Kelly Whiteside - Professor at Montclair State, spent 14 years as USA Today national college football writer

I'd argue this is probably the worst committee we've had, but it doesn't matter really.

This group inspires no confidence in the ability to get the actual 4 best teams to the playoff. Ugh.

 

[BhamToTexas]

Committee members:

Boo Corrigan - Athletic Director at NC State, former AD at Army

Chris Ault - former HC at Nevada

Mitch Barnhart - AD at Kentucky, former AD at Oregon State

Chet Gladchuk - AD at Navy, former AD at Tulane, Houston

Jim Grobe - former HC at Wake Forest and Ohio Univ.

Mark Harlan - AD at Utah, former AD at USF

Warde Manuel - AD at Michigan, former AD at UConn

David Sayler - AD at Miami (Ohio), former AD at South Dakota

Will Shields - 1992 All-American OL at Nebraska, Outland Trophy winner.

Gene Taylor - AD at Kansas State, former AD at North Dakota State.

Joe Taylor - former HC at Howard, Virginia Union, Hampton, and Florida A&M

Rod West - Group President of Utility Operations for Entergy Corp. Member of Board of Directors for the National Football Foundation, past president of the Sugar Bowl, played LB at Notre Dame

Kelly Whiteside - Professor at Montclair State, spent 14 years as USA Today national college football writer

I'd argue this is probably the worst committee we've had, but it doesn't matter really.

Multiple ties for B1G, ACC, PAC and Big12. Only one for SEC.

 

[colbysullivan]

This group inspires no confidence in the ability to get the actual 4 best teams to the playoff. Ugh.

"bUt ThAt'S nOt ThEiR jOb"

 

[Tidelines]

So besides Barnhart, who has Pac 12 connections, there is no SEC representation. We've been set-up from the get-go. How does the SEC commissioner let such things happen?

 

[Snuffy Smith]

Scenario #2 would be an absolute travesty given the numbers I posted in the "no respect" thread.

IF #2 played out - based on current team rankings

	Team 1	Team 2
Record	12-1	12-1
Conference Champion	Y	Y
Combined Record of opponents	97-60	84-73
Record of opponent they lost to (Bad loss factor)	12-1	12-1
Wins over top 10 teams	1	1
Wins over teams 11-15	2	0
Wins over teams 16-25	0	1

Not sure what objective measure could be used to put Team 2 ahead of Team 1, but as we know, they have been doing it since they started so in the end I would expect nothing else.

 

[GrayTide]

So with five Power 5 conference champions and 4 CFP slots somebody is going to get left out. The ideal scenario for this august committee would be Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and FSU all undefeated. This would not require any explanation.