Poll: Who will win the 2024 presidential election?

[TIDE-HSV]

(Note: not really returning, but it would be somewhat disingenuous of me to say after-the-fact what I thought if I did post later. Hence, my own prediction, honest and transparent as always).

This race has a 2000 feel to it.

For those who don't remember, that one ended:
a) popular vote winner was the incumbent VP
b) electoral vote winner was the Republican with the familiar name
c) the Senate ended in an absolute tie, GOP control dependent upon Cheney being the tie-breaking vote until Jeffords jumped parties
d) the GOP House - with a Speaker who had replaced the tarnished previous leader - dropped two House seats but barely held onto control (221-212).
e) in an absolute recount deadlock in one state with a Republican Secretary of State overseeing the signing of who wins the state's electoral votes (Trump's brother is not the PA governor is about the only thing missing).

Let's go with the easy one: GOP takes the Senate, largely because it would be nearly impossible for them to lose it given the terrain. They win WVA and MT and probably - probably - Ohio.

I think the Democrats take the House. There are very few seats that will even be competitive races, so a plus or minus 5 for either party isn't really a surprise. I mean, the GOP COULD win it, but momentum feels almost as against that there as it does for the Ds in the Senate.

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I don't have the first damned clue who will win the Presidential election. I can name points in Harris's favor (the economy, a fresh face, the fact she isn't Trump, she's run a decent enough campaign without major blunders) and one particular point in Trump's favor that would be a silver bullet for almost any other candidate, the "wrong track" number. Conventional wisdom has always been that a wrong track number of 50 is a warning and 60 is an alarm bell. But CW never contemplated the insanity of the Orange Toddler much less the residue of 1/6.

My gut instinct - that's all I have - is that Trump should not be able to win this race. But then when I was working through numbers the other day and momentum, my prediction wound up being Trump in the EC - and the entire thing coming down to PA. If I had been the consultant for either of these candidates, I would have had them circling the Big Three (PA/MI/WI) in constant motion.

I realize, of course, that Agent Orange doesn't listen to anyone.

So.....Trump in the EC, Harris in the PV. And I have 0% confidence in my prediction on the President. Seriously - I think the states fall in such a way it comes down to PA. But let me add, she's closing well (as Gore did in 2000) and he's closing terribly (as Bush did in 2000).

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Let me address a point that is out there as I've read it (elsewhere, not here) and we hear it every four years: "Reagan was 8 points behind Carter going into the debate and the polls were all wrong and Reagan won a landslide!" This is from people who want to think they can bypass polls and believe (by faith apparently) in a landslide coming. One MIGHT come, that part is true - and it could come in either direction. But let's end this myth right now.

The article below - read for yourself - shows what the Gallup poll released the weekend before the sole debate of the 1980 campaign. Gallup has Carter leading, 41-40, after Reagan had led the Gallup poll in September, 40-38.

View attachment 46764

The Gallup Poll published on October 15 shows Reagan leading, 45-42.

So if Gallup had Reagan up by 3 on October 15 and up by one on October 25, I SERIOUSLY doubt they ever had a poll with Carter leading Reagan by 8 late in the race - and if they did, it was obviously an outlier given what we see above. (Snopes links a dead link to a 2013 column in the NYT, not to any site that shows Gallup data).

MORE IMPORTANTLY: the 1980 race had a third-party challenge from John Anderson who was a liberal (drawing from Carter) Republican (drawing from Reagan). A sold 13 to 20% of the electorate was either for Anderson or undecided. We don't have room for 1/8 to 1/5 of the voting populace to flip at the last minute from a third-party challenger. Basically, Reagan bested Carter in the debate (it was not nearly as one-sided as is remembered now), and following the Ed Rollins rule - "doubt resolves against the incumbent," meaning the majority of undecideds go with the challenger - Anderson's voters collapsed heavily in favor of Reagan at the end, to the point Reagan actually carried Massachusetts.

None of those factors exist now, though as I said - a landslide CAN occur late. But people taking comfort in "but Reagan trailed Carter by 8 with a week to go" are remembering something I have no evidence ever even happened (particularly when you recall other polling organizations were showing a close race).

If she loses PA, and thus the election, I'll always believe that bypassing Shapiro was the cause...

 

[selmaborntidefan]

If she loses PA, and thus the election, I'll always believe that bypassing Shapiro was the cause...

Same.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

If she loses PA, and thus the election, I'll always believe that bypassing Shapiro was the cause...

Possible, but something in my gut tells me Shapiro didn't really want that gig. It’s just a feeling and since he would never admit to such a thing, we’ll never really know for sure. I DO think he certainly has higher political aspirations beyond where he is now and he will absolutely run a better campaign than we’ve seen the last few months when the time comes. Guys like Shapiro are the reason Dems can still be hopeful even if Harris can’t close the deal next week.

 

[Go Bama]

Possible, but something in my gut tells me Shapiro didn't really want that gig. It’s just a feeling and since he would never admit to such a thing, we’ll never really know for sure. I DO think he certainly has higher political aspirations beyond where he is now and he will absolutely run a better campaign than we’ve seen the last few months when the time comes. Guys like Shapiro are the reason Dems can still be hopeful even if Harris can’t close the deal next week.

I’m not sure how Harris could have run a better campaign.

 

[Bamaro]

If she loses PA, and thus the election, I'll always believe that bypassing Shapiro was the cause...

I hope I'm wrong but this late in the game it still looks like he will squeak by in Pa and win the EC. SMH!
What's wrong with these people?

 

[UAH]

I’m not sure how Harris could have run a better campaign.

I read the comments above on her not selecting Shapiro. Obvioulsy Shapiro is a very effective politician but he is not seeking the VP position and looking for a higher office in the future. It was reported at the time of her selection of a running mate that Shapiro wanted to be essentially a Co-President with a significant portfolio. It could have easily have become a very unhappy marriage between them. I do understand why she chose to go in a different direction.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Just a caveat to my lame prediction:
- 3 days out of a week, I wake up thinking Trump will win
- 3 days out of a week, I wake up thinking Harris will win (like today)
- 1 day out of a week, I wake up not knowing one way or the other

If 75 million people (or whatever it is) had not already voted, Trump's goose would be cooked based on his closing argument the last week, which sounds to me like, "Is he TRYING to lose INTENTIONALLY?" Again, he may lose anyway. He may lose a landslide.
Or he may not.

 

[92tide]

Just a caveat to my lame prediction:
- 3 days out of a week, I wake up thinking Trump will win
- 3 days out of a week, I wake up thinking Harris will win (like today)
- 1 day out of a week, I wake up not knowing one way or the other

If 75 million people (or whatever it is) had not already voted, Trump's goose would be cooked based on his closing argument the last week, which sounds to me like, "Is he TRYING to lose INTENTIONALLY?" Again, he may lose anyway. He may lose a landslide.
Or he may not.

nice to see you back here selma. hope all is going well

 

[Its On A Slab]

Iowa went solid for Trump the past two elections. A poll over the weekend showed Harris ahead (within the margin of error). This bodes well for a Harris victory if she is polling so well in states that were considered solid red.

I think it will come down to who gets Pennsylvania. The Rust Belt states will decide the election.

 

[TexasBama]

I hope I'm wrong but this late in the game it still looks like he will squeak by in Pa and win the EC. SMH!
What's wrong with these people?

Almost half of the Pennsylvania population is the Philly Metro. I’ve wondered how well their polling reflects that disparity.

 

[Bamaro]

Almost half of the Pennsylvania population is the Philly Metro. I’ve wondered how well their polling reflects that disparity.

I'm sure the metro areas will go for Harris however the rural areas will go for trump, slightly giving the statewide advantage to the orange faced fool.

 

[TexasBama]

I'm sure the metro areas will go for Harris however the rural areas will go for trump, slightly giving the statewide advantage to the orange faced fool.

There’s also Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) which broke 60/40 for Biden.

ETA. My neighbor from Pennsylvania says Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh and Philly with Alabama in between.

 

[Jon]

There’s also Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) which broke 60/40 for Biden.

ETA. My neighbor from Pennsylvania says Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh and Philly with Alabama in between.

Im from PA originally

Dad always called that area Pennsyltucky

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I read the comments above on her not selecting Shapiro. Obvioulsy Shapiro is a very effective politician but he is not seeking the VP position and looking for a higher office in the future. It was reported at the time of her selection of a running mate that Shapiro wanted to be essentially a Co-President with a significant portfolio. It could have easily have become a very unhappy marriage between them. I do understand why she chose to go in a different direction.

Thanks! You know, I'd totally forgotten that. I heard he had a list of demands which were almost tantamount to making him Co-President. (And it was also clear that they were making it obvious he would be her adversary in the next cycle.)

 

[UAH]

I have followed Anthony Scaramucci on his YouTube channel who is often on with Katy Kay in the morning.
If one hasn't seen him one might be surprised at how astute and insightful he is.

Today there was a discussion about the change in the mood of the election being reflected in the polls. One of the causal factors being discussed in the fact that people have heard all this from Trump for years and obviously neither the media or the voters thought he was serious. We became immune.

However, when people heard it from Stephen Miller and other radical members of his staff it became serious at that point!

In regard to the Selzer poll in Iowa it was noted that the three month abortion ban in Iowa just took affect. It became a real issue then and is being reflected in Selzer's poll.

Iowa, particularly, the large population centers is changing and would be deserving of closer examination.

 

[Bazza]

If she loses PA, and thus the election, I'll always believe that bypassing Shapiro was the cause...

Did she bypass him because he's Jewish?

 

[92tide]

no and that’s absurd

 

[NationalTitles18]

Her husband is Jewish.

 

[AUDub]

Did she bypass him because he's Jewish?

His office ruled this a suicide.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

See, if you ask me today, I think Harris wins.

I don't know, folks.