Is there a scenario where we still back into the playoffs?

[teamplayer]

Lane is working overtime to whine his way into the CFP

Whining and choking are the things he does best.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Oh no, I wouldn’t think so, not that high. I believe there are sites where potential matchups can be looked at. I’m no expert, not in the least bit.

Maybe not. The Bucks were at home and took them out 38-15. There would be a lot of action on that game and Indy would be prepared like it was their superbowl. But we have far superior athletes and way tougher schedule. It would be a dogfight for 3 quarters probably but I expect we would cover a 17 point line so yea, I can easily see us favored by that much or more in a potential matchup.

 

[BigAlinKnoxville]

IF it helps us, I have no issue rooting for UGA.

In fact, the idea of Texas winning the SEC in their first year as a member is almost enough alone to root for UGA.

This. I hate the idea of that, especially with their joke of a schedule.

 

[davefrat]

Whining and choking are the things he does best.

Maybe he should cool it on the analytics every so often if he wants to win more games.

 

[teamplayer]

She was originally hired by ESPN as an ACC beat writer but, she is also an idiot that is always against Alabama.

This committee stuff is the only thing she seems to report on these days so, it seems like ESPN doesn't even value her much. She claims to have this insider info but is also wrong more times than she is right with her predictions. She must be one of the least paid analysts on staff, that is the only reason that makes sense for ESPN to keep her around.

She seems to be the Mel Kiper of the college football playoffs. They can be wrong more than the weatherman, but they are still well paid as "experts." It seems to be good work if you can get it. Hey, ESPN, I would be happy to be your new expert on college football. I have a lot that I would like to say about the current state of the game. I have been a fan for over fifty years. I also happen to have a degree in Communications from Bama. Bring on the offers!

 

[Tidewater]

Maybe he should cool it on the analytics every so often if he wants to win more games.

Good point.
I think part of leadership is to look young men in the eye and see how they are doing and making a gut decision that does not necessarily involve a spreadsheet.

 

[KrAzY3]

As far as wanting Alabama in or not, based on how they've played, if they deserve it, possibly being embarrassed...

I do not think a bowl game can do much good for this team. With the inevitable opt outs and that sort of thing, it will obscure how good this team is or isn't as well as the opponent. So, it's not just a 0% shot at a championship, it means everyone can't learn as much about this team.

For instance, Sheridan was a plan B as coordinator. He failed spectacularly as an offensive coordinator his first time around, inheriting the 47th ranked offense, going down to 55th before the wheels fell off and he ran the second worst offense in all of college football. I feel I should repeat that, the offense he coordinated at Indiana was second only to New Mexico as the worst offense in all of college football.

So, I know a lot of people want to lay it all on the feet or Milroe and Lank, but I want to see some good in-game adjustments and a more balanced offense from Sheridan and if we don't see that hopefully that makes replacing him easier.

I would also add I'm concerned about this team's inability to stop the run. I'm curious to see if that can be addressed before a potential playoff.

If Alabama looks really bad, that should make it easier for DeBoer to make changes, so I'm all for it even if it is just an embarrassment.

Good point.
I think part of leadership is to look young men in the eye and see how they are doing and making a gut decision that does not necessarily involve a spreadsheet.

Part of the issue there is that no analytics that I'm aware of can actually account for who is actually on the field for a given play, who is healthy, who is injured, etc... so they're not advanced enough to really say what the best play is, they just suggest what generally would be the best call to make which isn't necessarily applicable.

 

[crimsonaudio]

She is an idiot and has always favored the ACC.

I find it odd that some seem to be listening to her. She may well end up being correct, but generally speaking she's one of the least-informed people I've ever seen cover CFB.

 

[dayhiker]

On the one hand, I think it would be hilarious for us to make the playoff and then go on a run because we get folks healthy. Alabama breaking the shiny new playoff would be spectacular.

OTOH, can the season just end?

 

[BhamToTexas]

Metric	Alabama	Miami	Favors
Record	9-3	10-2	Miami
AP	11	14	Alabama
Coaches	11	14	Alabama
FPI	4	11	Alabama
SOR	10	14	Alabama
SOS	17	55	Alabama
GC	5	19	Alabama
AVG WP	11	21	Alabama
Overall Eff	4	14	Alabama
Off Eff	11	1	Miami
Def Eff	8	63	Alabama
ST Eff	27	106	Alabama
SP+	5	10	Alabama
BCS	11	13	Alabama
Massey	9	13	Alabama
A&H	12	15	Alabama
Billingsley	11	14	Alabama
Colley	11	13	Alabama
Sagarin	5	14	Alabama
Wolfe	14	11	Miami
Top 25 Wins	3	0	Alabama
0.500 Opp Losses	2	0	Miami
Last 5	4-1	3-2	Alabama
Opp W% (FBS)	0.621	0.500	Alabama
SEC vs ACC	8-3	3-8	Alabama
Conf vs Power 4	13-7	9-17	Alabama

 

[Tidewater]

Part of the issue there is that no analytics that I'm aware of can actually account for who is actually on the field for a given play, who is healthy, who is injured, etc... so they're not advanced enough to really say what the best play is, they just suggest what generally would be the best call to make which isn't necessarily applicable.

I get all of that.
I had to evaluate a bunch of really good Green Beret officers and NCOs.
I casually mentioned to my boss how hard it was to rank order these guys, because they were all studs.
My boss looked at me and said, "You get paid for your judgment, so give it."

I think the same applies to a football coach. He gets paid for his judgment. Otherwise, it would be cheaper to just get an AI computer and do what it says to do. The one thing a computer cannot do is look into the guys' eyes and exercise judgment. "Can they make this fourth down and 2, up by two with 4:32 to play in the fourth quarter? The determined look in their eyes says they can, so let's go for it." (Or alternatively, "... the anxiety I see in their eyes says they cannot, so let's punt and play defense.") That is just the coach's job.

 

[dayhiker]

Metric	Alabama	Miami	Favors
Record	9-3	10-2	Miami
AP	11	14	Alabama
Coaches	11	14	Alabama
FPI	4	11	Alabama
SOR	10	14	Alabama
SOS	17	55	Alabama
GC	5	19	Alabama
AVG WP	11	21	Alabama
Overall Eff	4	14	Alabama
Off Eff	11	1	Miami
Def Eff	8	63	Alabama
ST Eff	27	106	Alabama
SP+	5	10	Alabama
BCS	11	13	Alabama
Massey	9	13	Alabama
A&H	12	15	Alabama
Billingsley	11	14	Alabama
Colley	11	13	Alabama
Sagarin	5	14	Alabama
Wolfe	14	11	Miami
Top 25 Wins	3	0	Alabama
0.500 Opp Losses	2	0	Miami
Last 5	4-1	3-2	Alabama
Opp W% (FBS)	0.621	0.500	Alabama
SEC vs ACC	8-3	3-8	Alabama
Conf vs Power 4	13-7	9-17	Alabama

I could definitely get behind us pushing out a team from the state of FL two years in a row.

 

[dayhiker]

I get all of that.
I had to evaluate a bunch of really good Green Beret officers and NCOs.
I casually mentioned to my boss how hard it was to rank order these guys, because they were all studs.
My boss looked at me and said, "You get paid for your judgment, so give it."

I think the same applies to a football coach. He gets paid for his judgment. Otherwise, it would be cheaper to just get an AI computer and do what it says to do. The one thing a computer cannot do is look into the guys' eyes and exercise judgment. "Can they make this fourth down and 2, up by two with 4:32 to play in the fourth quarter? The determined look in their eyes says they can, so let's go for it." (Or alternatively, "... the anxiety I see in their eyes says they cannot, so let's punt and play defense.") That is just the coach's job.

Offtopic sidebar, but I've been listening a good bit to podcasts with guys from SOG over the last few years. I've read Dick Thompson's books about SOG and the one about stress/leadership. The Green Beret comment is what triggered my reply. Each time I hear these stories I am just dumbfounded. The stories can't be real, but they ARE real. Just simply amazing. I know it was disbanded in the mid 70's, but did you overlap with any of them before they retired?

 

[colbysullivan]

The Top 12 are in the Playoffs. Lots of teams have had "off" years with some bad losses. It won't be easy to find 12 highly and richly deserving teams. And finally, nobody on the Committee will be able to envision any scenario in which Alabama football is not in the Top 12.

Top 8? Bama not in. But the system is Top 12. I think Bama will always be in the Top 12. Reputation and Pedigree counts with the Committee. Some say it shouldn't. But IMHO, so long as humans are on the Committee, they will consider Rep and Pedigree, because those two factors bring TV ratings.

People will tune in to watch Alabama in the playoffs.

This is not necessarily true because of the automatic qualifiers.

 

[Tidewater]

Offtopic sidebar, but I've been listening a good bit to podcasts with guys from SOG over the last few years. I've read Dick Thompson's books about SOG and the one about stress/leadership. The Green Beret comment is what triggered my reply. Each time I hear these stories I am just dumbfounded. The stories can't be real, but they ARE real. Just simply amazing. I know it was disbanded in the mid 70's, but did you overlap with any of them before they retired?

I did not finish the Q course until December 1989. Most of those guys were gone by then.
One of my warrant officers in 10th Group had served with 5th Group in Vietnam. He was a crazy guy (in a good way) and really fit for his age (he was in his 50s).

 

[davefrat]

Good point.
I think part of leadership is to look young men in the eye and see how they are doing and making a gut decision that does not necessarily involve a spreadsheet.

He can whine all he wants, but if they don't make the playoff, it's probably because of that stupid spreadsheet.

 

[CajunCrimson]

We now have better odds than SMU. Which I find interesting. Some people are acting like they are automatically and regardless of what happens in the ACCCG. Their odds are telling a different story.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

How about close wins? or escapes...the U has a couple of very lucky wins on their resume

We have those also.

I’m not saying Miami should be in but our resume is not bulletproof.

We are a couple plays away from being 7-5

 

[BamaInBham]

We have those also.

I’m not saying Miami should be in but our resume is not bulletproof.

We are a couple plays away from being 7-5

True. And a couple of plays from being 11-1. IMO, they deserved to lose the couple they almost won but lost and to win the couple they almost lost but won. I.e., 9-3 is the right outcome.

But Miami was playing with fire all year vs a weak schedule. As some other posters have shown, Alabama beats Miami in almost every metric and ranking I’ve seen except they have one fewer loss. IMO, their inclusion displacing Alabama would be a travesty.

 

[statgrad96]

One thing that I find curious is that no one questions Notre Dame. Yes, they are 11-1, but they have not beaten a ranked opponent and have arguably the worst loss of any school in contention (Northern Illinois).

I mean, they don't even compare well to Indiana...