The House is currently 218-213 with four vacancies. Two of them are for Democrats who died. Both seem to be very safe for them.
The other two are in Florida. One is Matt Gaetz’ seat. He won with 66% of the vote in November against the same person who is running for the Democrats in the special election. The Republican running has the advantage of not being Matt Gaetz so he should win.
The other is for Michael Waltz’ seat. Waltz also had 66% so it shouldn’t be a problem for the new guy.
Both Florida special elections are Tuesday. The other two have one in Texas with no set date yet and one in Arizona set for September.
You know, I "get" that the job of political consultants it to LIE to donors and LIE to the press and LIE to the candidate until Election Day when you tell them they never had a chance, but I don't how many times I've watched this same movie - and most of the time it's always a Democrat whose going to win a district where the Republican can have sex with under age girls and still win a landslide.
I mean, I chose an apt metaphor for Gaetz's district, the most Republican in Florida btw.
Let's be clear: Florida 1 isn't going to be close, and if it is, the GOP has serious problems. But this is the same thing I live through every election cycle since I moved to Texas in 2001 - "this is the year Texas goes blue." I watched people who should know better say, "Texas is in play!" last fall and cite the "look at all the people Kamala is drawing in Houston" (ignoring Beyonce' was the draw). Beto O'Rourke became a star because he lost a close election to the most unpopular Texas Senator in maybe forever. That wasn't Texas turning blue, it was Republicans who hate Ted Cruz.
Stefanik got 62% so her seat is pretty safe.
Me suspects Trump wanted her out of the leadership because someone mentioned her previous lack of loyalty, but he lacked the spine to just tell them to dump her, so he went through the charade. For all of his reality TV "you're fired," the man is an utter coward who never fires anyone face to face.
The Democrats are making a lot of noise about having a chance in Florida. But unless Trump does something monumentally stupid this weekend (not impossible) I don’t see them being close.
So worrying about one seat seems a bit overblown.
Well, one seat when your margin is narrow CAN BE a big deal, but I think part of the problem overall is that everyone thinks about politics too "rationally" and thinks the world works in such a way where if you just give them "facts" (always selectively of course), the voters will make what the presenter thinks is the rational, right position.
That's never been true.
And I also think too much is made of special elections (and even the midterms) NOT because control is at stake but there's this magical thinking that says that if a state is won by your party's governor or both senators, it translates to the Presidential race - which is ridiculous. I could provide data point after data point, but just look at this as a prime example:
1995 Large State Governors
1) California - Pete Wilson, R
2) New York - George Pataki, R
3) Texas - George W. Bush, R
4) Pennsylvania - Tom Ridge, R
5) Illinois - Jim Edgar, R
6) Florida - Lawton Chiles, D
7) Ohio - George Voinovich, R
8) Michigan - John Engler, R
9) New Jersey - Christie Todd Whitman, R
10) Georgia - Zell Miller, D
In the 1994 midterms, the GOP wiped out the Dems in both Houses and had 8 of the 9 largest states with GOP governors. Two years later, Clinton won EVERY SINGLE ONE of the top 9 states EXCEPT Texas (he had won GA in 92 but lost it).
Our entire system of elections and coverage is built upon political myths like that.
Reagan carried 49 states in 1984, but the Democratic Governors were in charge of NY, TX, FL, OH, and GA.